Feasibility Study Company Independent Feasibility Analysis

Coffee Shops & Cafes · Asset Class

Coffee Shop & Cafe Feasibility & Market Studies

Independent, lender-grade analysis for coffee-shop and cafe projects across SBA 7(a) and 504, USDA, conventional bank, and equipment and bridge capital. This page is our standing read on why a coffee shop is a going-concern operating business rather than passive real estate, how ramp-up and drive-thru forecasts fail review, and the difference between the market study, the feasibility study, and the going-concern appraisal a lender requires.

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66%
US adults who drank coffee in the past day, a 20-year high1
59%
Out-of-home coffee purchases made at a drive-thru, a record1
$75.3B
2025 US Coffee & Snack Shops industry revenue3
18.3%
Retail coffee price rise, year over year, January 202616
The Coffee Thesis

A coffee shop is a going concern, not passive real estate.

Coffee is a specialized subset of the restaurant and quick-service sector, and it is underwritten on the same discipline: prime cost, four-wall margin, average unit volume, same-store sales, and lease dependence. Critically, an operating coffee shop is valued as a going concern, a business enterprise combining leasehold, FF&E and equipment, and goodwill, on an SDE or EBITDA multiple, not as a passive rent stream. That single distinction separates it from a net-leased Starbucks or Dutch Bros ground lease, which is real estate priced on tenant credit and lease term. We prepare the market study, the feasibility study, and the going-concern appraisal input a coffee file needs, aligned to the standard that will judge it.

The demand backdrop is unusually strong. Sixty-six percent of US adults drank coffee in the past day in both the Spring and Fall 2025 National Coffee Data Trends surveys, a 20-year high, at roughly three cups per day, and specialty consumption hit a record 48 percent past-day in Fall 2025.1 The $5 daily coffee is a smaller discretionary cut than a $15-to-$20 restaurant meal, which is the durability thesis underwriters rely on.23 But the market splits sharply by business model. Drive-thru-only is the growth engine: a record 59 percent of out-of-home purchases were made at a drive-thru in 2025, and drive-thru average unit volumes dwarf independents, with Dutch Bros at a record $2.1 million system AUV and 7 Brew near $2.55 million against a typical independent's $400,000 to $800,000.178 The franchised-versus-independent divide is the single most important risk axis on the page.

The economics are seductive at the drink level and unforgiving at the store level. Beverage gross margins run 70 to 80 percent and above, but labor at roughly 25 to 35 percent of revenue, occupancy at 8 to 14 percent, and now record green-coffee costs compress net margins to roughly 2.5 to 7 percent for a typical shop, with mature, well-run operators reaching 10 to 25 percent.17 Commodity pressure is a live headwind: ICE arabica set an all-time record above $4.30 per pound in early 2025 and US retail coffee prices were up 18.3 percent year over year.1516 What follows is organized as a working desk: a national demand, format, and unit-economics monitor, the ramp-up and operating forensics that sink coffee studies, the capital-source routing that decides which deliverable a project needs, and the study-type distinctions competitors state loosely. Every figure is dated and attributed in the sources below.

The Demand & Format Monitor

Where the coffee-shop market stands, market by market.

A demand, format, and unit-economics read for the US coffee-shop market, compiled from named primary sources. Coffee-shop feasibility is driven less by raw population than by daytime population, commuter traffic, drive-thru-friendliness, demographics, and local saturation, so the metro framework below is qualitative by necessity. Data current through early 2026; figures are labeled by basis, franchised versus independent and system AUV versus FDD Item 19 versus third-party estimate.

The national picture frames every site. Coffee demand is at a multi-decade high and behaves as a durable daily habit: 66 percent past-day consumption in 2025 was a 20-year high, 85 percent of past-day drinkers had coffee at breakfast, and specialty reached a record 48 percent past-day.1 A Technomic study commissioned by the National Coffee Association found coffee supports more than 2.2 million US jobs and that consumers spent nearly $110 billion on coffee and related goods in 2022, about $301 million every day.2 The market itself is large but its size depends entirely on definition: IBISWorld places the broad Coffee & Snack Shops industry, NAICS 72221b, at $75.3 billion in 2025 with roughly 94,498 businesses, a category that includes donut, bagel, and ice-cream shops, while narrower reads value branded coffee shops near $54 billion and the specialty segment near $47.8 billion.34 These are different universes on different bases and are not directly comparable; the table below is therefore a demand-driver framework, not a hard-data table, and cell-level AUV by metro is proprietary and not public.

Feasibility read: Whitespace Selective Saturated. A qualitative demand-driver framework for coffee, not a claim of uniform hard data; cell-level AUV by metro is largely proprietary, so every deal requires a site-specific study.
Market type Demand drivers Drive-thru fit Competition / saturation Feasibility read
Dense urban coreVery high daytime / commuter; office-adjacency criticalNYC, SF, Boston, Chicago LoopLow; few drive-thru sitesVery high (Starbucks + independents)SaturatedWalk-up cafe / licensed kiosk
Suburban arterial / commuter corridorCommuter AM traffic; morning-side mattersHigh; the ideal formModerate-high; chains expanding fastWhitespaceThe growth format's core
Sun Belt / high-growth metrosPopulation + daytime growth; car-centricTX, FL, AZ, Carolinas, TNHighRising fast (Dutch Bros / 7 Brew / Scooter's)SelectiveDensification / transfer risk
Pacific Northwest / WestHighest specialty consumption (West 58% past-week)Mature coffee cultureMixedVery high; origin market for drive-thruSaturatedOpportunity in underserved subs
Midwest secondary / small metroSteady commuter demand; lower densityHighLower (Scooter's, Biggby, 7 Brew whitespace)WhitespaceLower AUV ceilings
Rural / small townThin daytime population; highway-dependentHigh if traffic count supportsLowSelectiveUSDA B&I candidate

Framework compiled from the National Coffee Association (2025 specialty-by-region data), QSR Magazine chain-expansion reporting, and B+E and ScrapeHero net-lease and store-density data; see sources 1, 6, and 24. Drive-thru chains are expanding outward from the West and Midwest into the Sun Belt, with Dutch Bros reaching 200-plus Texas units in about four years and 7 Brew already in 38 states; Texas leads the nation in QSR net-lease inventory, followed by Florida and California, where Starbucks density is highest.24

The chains are concentrated at the top and fragmented below

Coffee is highly concentrated at the top and long-tailed underneath. Starbucks ended fiscal 2025, on September 28, 2025, with about 17,200 US stores, split roughly 62 percent company-operated and 38 percent licensed, with beverages at 73 percent of company-operated retail sales; IBISWorld estimated Starbucks at roughly 30.4 percent of category revenue.53 Dunkin' operates upwards of 10,000 US units, heavily franchised, at a traditional-unit AUV of roughly $1.0 to $1.4 million.10 Below them the drive-thru challengers are scaling fast: Dutch Bros closed 2025 at 1,136 shops across 25 states, Scooter's reached about 932 stores across 32 states, 7 Brew reached roughly 602 locations, and Tim Hortons US and Peet's held about 700-plus and 255 units respectively.79811 William Blair analyst Sharon Zackfia has argued the US needs more than 16,000 additional coffee units over the next decade and that the market is not "a zero-sum game anytime soon as the pie continues to grow," so saturation risk is local and format-specific rather than national.6

Drive-thru is the growth engine

The defining current trend is the shift to the car. A record 59 percent of out-of-home coffee purchases were made at a drive-thru in 2025, up 9 percent year over year, and 36 percent were ordered via app.1 The economic logic is throughput per square foot: a small-footprint stand needs far less floor space and staffing than a sit-down cafe, cars spend an average of five to eight minutes per order, and drive-thru maximizes volume at lower buildout and labor cost, enabling rapid franchising.12 Nearly 75 percent of all restaurant traffic is now off-premises, and Starbucks announced that 90 percent of new locations would include a drive-thru, though roughly 60 percent of its orders still originate in the store.1314 The leaders are winning traffic even in a soft restaurant environment: Dutch Bros has posted 19 consecutive years of positive same-store sales, and 7 Brew's system sales grew 163 percent in a single year to over $500 million, while Black Rock Coffee Bar's 2025 IPO raised $294.1 million at a roughly $1.32 billion valuation, the first restaurant IPO in two years.712

Unit economics: high margin per drink, thin margin per store

Average unit volumes must be read by basis, because they mix system reports, FDD Item 19 averages, and third-party estimates: Dutch Bros at a record $2.1 million system AUV, 7 Brew near $2.55 million FDD, Starbucks estimated near $1.8 million (the brand does not report AUV), Scooter's at $885,355 system with a $1,276,780 top quartile, and independents commonly $400,000 to $800,000.69 On a typical independent P&L, COGS runs 25 to 35 percent, labor 25 to 35 percent, and occupancy 8 to 14 percent, so despite beverage gross margins of 70 to 80 percent and above, operating costs consume 90 to 95 percent of revenue and net margin lands near 2.5 to 7 percent.1718 Demand is intensely concentrated in the morning: 50 to 70 percent of drive-thru volume occurs in the 6-to-10 a.m. window.19 Most specialty cafes run 0 to 6 percent net margin, or a small loss, in year one and reach a stabilized 12 to 18 percent in years two and three, with the ramp to full volume taking 9 to 18 months.20

Green coffee is a live margin risk

Commodity cost is not a footnote. ICE arabica surged to an all-time record above $4.30 per pound in early February 2025, peaking near $4.41, the highest since the 1977 Brazil frost, on Brazil and Vietnam weather, thin certified stocks, speculative positioning, and US import tariffs, and remained elevated and volatile around $3.10 to $3.50 through year end.15 US retail coffee prices were up 18.3 percent year over year as of January 2026.16 Even Dutch Bros, with scale buying power, saw beverage, food, and packaging costs rise 160 basis points year over year to 27 percent of company-operated revenue in the fourth quarter of 2025, "mainly from higher coffee and food program costs."7 Because most coffee is bought at spot or on short contracts and menu-price pass-through lags, elevated bean cost must be stress-tested in underwriting, not assumed away. The institutional conviction behind the sector is nonetheless real: Keurig Dr Pepper agreed in August 2025 to acquire JDE Peet's, owner of Peet's, in an $18 billion deal.30

Common Review Failures

How coffee-shop feasibility and ramp-up forecasts fail review.

Sales-per-unit ramp, labor, and the rent-to-sales ratio are the variables a credit committee scrutinizes most, and the places coffee studies most often break. Each failure below is tied to a real mechanism or number.

  1. Day-one stabilized volume

    Assuming stabilized AUV, ticket, and transactions from opening. A new shop must build a customer base and a daily-habit routine; the ramp to full volume takes 9 to 18 months, and year-one net margins of 0 to 6 percent, or a small loss, are normal. A plan that skips the ramp overstates early DSCR, and a projected 18 percent net margin in year one is a red flag.20

  2. Overestimated drive-thru throughput

    Physical car-stacking and lane capacity cap peak throughput, and too many cars in line actually drives customers away. A common benchmark is 60 to 300 customers per 30,000 vehicles passing between 6 and 10 a.m., with documented window times of 30 to 45 seconds. Underwriting a cars-per-hour figure above the lane's physical stacking and speed-of-service limit overstates revenue.196

  3. Daypart concentration risk

    Over-reliance on the 6-to-10 a.m. rush, which produces 50 to 70 percent of drive-thru volume, while afternoon and evening dayparts are structurally weaker. Operators are deploying boba, energy drinks, and food specifically to build the weak dayparts. A revenue plan that assumes even all-day volume is unrealistic.19

  4. The high-gross-margin illusion

    The 70-to-80-percent-plus beverage gross margin creates a false sense of security. After labor, occupancy, and COGS consume 90 to 95 percent of revenue, net margin is thin, roughly 2.5 to 7 percent for a typical shop. Plans that carry gross margin to the bottom line without full operating-expense loads fail review.17

  5. Coffee-commodity and COGS risk

    Underwriting against a favorable historical bean cost while arabica sits at or near record highs. Tariffs and weather keep the "C" price volatile, and prices are increasingly viewed as a new normal for 2026 and beyond. The COGS line must be stressed for a sustained elevated green-coffee scenario of 12 to 24 months.15

  6. The franchised-versus-independent divide

    Independents have no proven unit economics and no brand draw; franchised drive-thru concepts have FDD Item 19 data but carry fee loads that compress owner earnings, for example Scooter's 6 percent royalty plus a 2 percent brand fund, equal to 8 percent of revenue. A plan must model the full fee load, and a franchised deal requires the brand to be listed on the SBA Franchise Directory.9

  7. Site selection and the morning-commute side

    Coffee is intensely site-dependent: visibility, ingress and egress, drive-thru stacking configuration, and being on the morning-commute, typically right-turn inbound, side of the road. The wrong side of the street is a documented killer, and a chain drive-thru opening within a half-mile can trigger deliberate sales transfer. A study that does not analyze AM directional traffic is deficient.6

  8. Labor, wage inflation, and speed-of-service

    Labor is typically the single largest controllable cost, 25 to 35 percent of revenue, and coffee is labor-intensive relative to its ticket. Wage inflation and 2026 state minimum-wage increases are compressing this line, and unionization is a live cost signal at company-operated chains, with Starbucks Workers United representing more than 12,000 workers across 650-plus stores and no ratified contract as of early 2026. A plan that assumes below-market labor or full staffing at opening is optimistic.2031

  9. Rent-to-sales, occupancy cost, and DSCR-constrained sizing

    Coffee's small footprint often sits on high-rent-per-square-foot pads; occupancy above roughly 14 percent of revenue is a red flag, with the rule of thumb keeping rent at or below 10 to 15 percent of sales. Working capital is consistently underestimated and is the leading cause of first-six-month failure, so plan 3 to 6 months of operating reserves, and DSCR must be sized on ramped, not stabilized, cash flow.20

Capital-Source Routing

Which channel funds the project, and what it requires.

Coffee routes through distinct capital sources, and each requires a different deliverable and standard. The study is built to the union of requirements across the channels actually in play, and the first question is always whether the shop is franchised or independent, and whether the deliverable is a going-concern business valuation or a real-estate appraisal.

The coffee lender matrix
Deliverable and convention by capital source. Terms are program conventions, not universal minimums.26
Capital sourceDeliverableConvention
SBA 7(a)Going-concern feasibility + business valuation for buildout, FF&E, and working capitalUp to $5M; up to 25 yrs w/ real estate, 10 yrs equipment / WC
SBA 504 (owner-occupied)Feasibility + USPAP real-estate appraisal51% existing / 60% new owner-occupancy
Conventional / community bankEquipment-secured lending with a personal guaranteeLeans on FDD Item 19 for franchised deals
USDA B&I (rural)Owner-operated business feasibilityRural areas, generally population under 50,000; job creation
Equipment financingEspresso-machine / FF&E schedule, often layered with 7(a)2–5 day funding; 2–7 yr terms matched to equipment life
Bridge / hard moneyAcquisition or ground-up drive-thru timing gapShort term; refinanced into SBA or conventional at stabilization

Sources: SBA SOP 50 10 8 (effective June 1, 2025); Crestmont Capital equipment-financing guidance; USDA Rural Development B&I terms; sba7a.loans / Janover and the GoSBA 2025 FOIA analysis. See sources 26, 28, and 29.

One eligibility mechanic is worth stating plainly. Coffee shops, especially franchised drive-thru concepts, are a common and growing SBA 7(a) use, and roughly 10 percent of all SBA loans go to franchises; a 2025 SBA FOIA analysis found 7(a) franchise loans defaulted at 9.64 percent versus 10.28 percent for non-franchise loans, with Scooter's Coffee among the most-funded brands.29 Under SOP 50 10 8, effective June 1, 2025, the SBA Franchise Directory was reinstated: a franchised coffee brand must be listed for franchise loan proceeds to be used, and the lender must verify the listing and obtain the SBA Franchise Identifier Code plus executed franchise documents before disbursement; brands listed as of May 2023 had until July 31, 2025 to execute the new Franchisor Certification.2627 For a change of ownership, when the financed amount minus the appraised value of real estate and equipment exceeds $250,000, or when there is a close buyer-seller relationship, the lender must obtain an independent business valuation from a Qualified Source holding an ASA, CBA, ABV, CVA, or BCA credential, with values allocated to land, building, equipment, and intangibles, and 7(a) proceeds capped at that valuation.27 Note that Dutch Bros is largely off the table for external franchisees under its company-operator model.

  • Franchised drive-thru acquisition or new buildSBA 7(a) for buildout, FF&E, and working capital; confirm the brand is on the SBA Franchise Directory before proceeding.26
  • Independent single-location startupSBA 7(a) or conventional bank; with no FDD data, operator experience and a site-specific study carry the file.
  • Change of ownership with goodwill above $250,000Independent Qualified Source business valuation; purchase price above appraised value must be equity or standby, not the guaranteed loan.27
  • Owner-occupied freestanding drive-thru real estateSBA 504, subject to the 51 percent existing or 60 percent new owner-occupancy test.26
  • Rural small-town cafe (population under 50,000)USDA Business & Industry under the OneRD Guarantee Loan Initiative, supporting job creation.
  • Acquisition or ground-up timing gapBridge or equipment financing for the espresso machine and buildout, refinanced into SBA or conventional debt once stabilized.28
Study Types

Market study, feasibility study, appraisal: three questions.

These three documents answer different questions and are not substitutes. Lenders and sponsors conflate them constantly; underwriters and credit committees do not.

What each document answers, and the standard that governs it.
DocumentQuestion answeredGoverning standard
AppraisalWhat is it worth? A going-concern / business-enterprise value on cash flow (an SDE or EBITDA multiple), allocated to leasehold, FF&E, and goodwill; a net-leased pad is instead valued as real estate on a cap rate.USPAP going-concern
Market studyIs there demand? Daytime population, commuter traffic counts, drive-thru-friendliness, and local saturation.Trade-area demand analysis
Feasibility studyDoes this project pencil for this lender? The market study plus a ramped P&L, DSCR, and a coffee-commodity stress test at a given cost basis.Lender / SBA underwriting

The distinction that governs a coffee file is that an operating shop is valued as a going concern, not as passive real estate. The income approach runs on cash flow, an SDE or EBITDA multiple, with the total enterprise value allocated among real property or leasehold, FF&E and equipment such as espresso machines, drive-thru systems, and refrigeration, and intangible or goodwill value. The FF&E allocation is anchored by real buildout ranges: a commercial espresso machine alone runs roughly $5,000 to $20,000 and equipment is 15 to 40 percent of a buildout that spans about $25,000 for a kiosk to $400,000-plus for a full-service or drive-thru cafe.25 Independent single locations commonly trade around 1.5x to 3x SDE, with BizBuySell reporting that half of coffee-shop businesses sell between 1.5 and 2.55 times SDE at an average multiple near 2.23x in 2025; multi-unit and franchised operators command higher multiples, roughly 5x to 7x EBITDA for a multi-unit franchise.2122 A net-leased coffee property, a Starbucks or Dutch Bros ground lease, is the opposite case: valued as real estate on tenant credit and lease term, with Q1 2025 cap rates around 5.25 percent for Dutch Bros and 5.65 percent for Starbucks and an individual Dutch Bros ground lease trading as low as 4.52 percent.23 These two bases must never be conflated.

One scope boundary is worth stating. A coffee shop is generally not a special-purpose property the way a gas station or car wash is, so the standard non-special-purpose going-concern path applies, and a lender will typically still require a Phase I Environmental Site Assessment for real-estate collateral, with attention to prior site uses such as a former gas station or dry cleaner. The feasibility or market-study author does not itself perform the Phase I or II ESA; that is a separate environmental professional's engagement.

Coffee sub-models, each with a distinct study scope

Coffee Questions

Coffee-shop feasibility and market-study questions.

What is the difference between a coffee-shop market study and a feasibility study?

A market study sizes demand and competition for a trade area, meaning daytime population, commuter traffic counts, drive-thru-friendliness, and local saturation, and answers whether there is demand. A feasibility study goes further, testing whether a specific coffee shop can generate cash flow sufficient to cover operating costs and debt service at a given cost basis; it includes a ramp assumption of nine to eighteen months, a projected P&L, DSCR sized on ramped rather than stabilized cash flow, and a coffee-commodity stress test. It answers whether the project pencils for this lender.

Is a coffee shop valued as a business or as real estate?

An operating coffee shop is valued as a going concern, not as passive real estate. It is a specialized foodservice business valued on cash flow, an SDE or EBITDA multiple on the business enterprise, with the total value allocated among leasehold or real property, FF&E and equipment such as espresso machines and drive-thru systems, and intangible or goodwill value. Independent shops commonly trade around 1.5x to 3x SDE while franchised and multi-unit operators command higher multiples. This is entirely distinct from a net-leased Starbucks or Dutch Bros ground lease, which is a real-estate asset priced on tenant credit and lease term at a cap rate, with no going-concern or goodwill component. The two bases must never be conflated.

Can a coffee shop be financed with an SBA loan?

Yes. Coffee shops, especially franchised drive-thru concepts, are a common and growing SBA 7(a) use because coffee real estate is often leased and the borrower needs buildout, leasehold improvements, equipment, and working capital. The 7(a) is the workhorse, with loans up to 5 million dollars, up to 10 years for working capital and equipment and up to 25 years when real estate is involved; the 504 suits owner-occupied coffee real estate such as a freestanding drive-thru the operator owns, subject to the 51 percent existing or 60 percent new-construction owner-occupancy tests. Under SOP 50 10 8, effective June 1, 2025, a franchised brand must be listed on the reinstated SBA Franchise Directory for franchise loan proceeds to be used.

How does underwriting differ between a franchised and an independent coffee shop?

The franchised-versus-independent divide is the single most important risk axis in coffee-shop underwriting. Franchised drive-thru concepts such as Scooter's and 7 Brew carry FDD Item 19 average-unit-volume data and brand draw, but also royalties, for example Scooter's 6 percent royalty plus a 2 percent brand fund, that compress owner earnings and must be modeled. Independents have no proven unit economics and no brand draw, so operator experience, a site-specific study, and a documented ramp carry the file. A franchised deal also requires the brand to be listed on the SBA Franchise Directory before proceeds can be disbursed.

How long does a new coffee shop take to ramp to stabilized volume?

A new shop must build a customer base and a daily-habit routine, and the ramp to full transaction volume typically takes nine to eighteen months. Year-one net margins of 0 to 6 percent, or a small loss, are normal, with stabilized net margins of roughly 12 to 18 percent reached in years two and three for a well-run shop. A business plan that projects stabilized average unit volume or an 18 percent net margin from opening is a red flag, and DSCR must be sized on ramped, not stabilized, cash flow.

Why is the drive-thru format so important to coffee-shop feasibility?

Drive-thru-only is the sector's growth engine. A record 59 percent of out-of-home coffee purchases were made at a drive-thru in 2025, up 9 percent year over year, according to the National Coffee Association. The format maximizes throughput per square foot with minimal footprint, equipment, and staffing, and drive-thru average unit volumes dwarf independents: Dutch Bros reported a record 2.1 million dollar system AUV in 2025 and 7 Brew an FDD-reported AUV near 2.55 million dollars, against roughly 400,000 to 800,000 dollars for a typical independent cafe. Feasibility work must stress physical car-stacking and speed-of-service limits and confirm the site sits on the morning-commute side of the road.

Why are coffee commodity prices a current underwriting risk?

Green-coffee costs set a record in 2025. ICE arabica futures peaked above 4.30 dollars per pound in early February 2025, the highest since the 1977 Brazil frost, driven by Brazil and Vietnam weather, thin stocks, speculation, and U.S. import tariffs, and U.S. retail coffee prices were up 18.3 percent year over year as of January 2026. Because most coffee is bought at spot or on short contracts and menu-price pass-through lags, this is a live margin risk rather than a historical footnote. A feasibility study should run a scenario holding green coffee at or above 2025 record levels for 12 to 24 months and confirm the deal still clears the lender's DSCR floor.

By Market

Coffee-shop feasibility studies by state.

Coffee demand, drive-thru-friendliness, and the competitive set are intensely local. Explore the state markets where daytime population, commuter traffic, and chain density determine whether a shop pencils.

Underwriting a coffee shop? Start with the going concern.

A methodology briefing walks through the analytical framework, the deliverable your capital source requires, and the current demand, drive-thru, unit-economics, and coffee-commodity data for your format and trade area.

Request a methodology briefing
Sources

Data sources and dates.

Every figure on this page traces to a named authority. Coffee readings are point-in-time and provider-dependent; survey percentages, broad-industry revenue, FDD Item 19 averages, and scraped store counts are different bases and are labeled and not compared directly, as flagged throughout.

  1. National Coffee Association, National Coffee Data Trends ("The Atlas of American Coffee"), Spring and Fall 2025: 66% past-day consumption (a 20-year high), ~3 cups/day, 85% of past-day drinkers at breakfast, record 48% specialty past-day, 59% of out-of-home purchases at a drive-thru (a record, +9% YoY), 36% via app, cold brew up 162% since 2016, and West at 58% past-week specialty.
  2. Technomic study commissioned by the National Coffee Association (released October 23, 2023): coffee supports more than 2.2 million US jobs and $101.2 billion in wages, with consumers spending nearly $110 billion on coffee and related goods in 2022 (~$301 million per day) and coffee at roughly 1.3% of the US economy ($343.2 billion in total impact).
  3. IBISWorld, Coffee & Snack Shops (NAICS 72221b) market-size and business-count pages (2025–2026): $75.3 billion in 2025 (+1.7%) and $75.5 billion in 2026, ~94,498 businesses in 2026, and Starbucks at roughly 30.4% of category revenue (~$22.6 billion). A broad category including donut, bagel, pretzel, and ice-cream shops.
  4. World Coffee Portal and Grand View Research, via MMCG Invest synthesis (2025): branded coffee shops valued at ~$54 billion (2024) and the US specialty-coffee segment at ~$47.8 billion (2024). Narrower definitions not comparable to the IBISWorld category figure.
  5. Starbucks FY2025 8-K / 10-K (fiscal year ended September 28, 2025): ~17,200 US stores (~62% company-operated / 38% licensed), beverages 73% and food 23% of company-operated retail sales, and more than $500 million invested in additional store labor hours ("Green Apron Service").
  6. QSR Magazine (2024–2025): Starbucks ~$1.8 million AUV estimate (Starbucks does not report AUV); Dutch Bros 844 company / 333 franchised (Q1 2026); Scooter's throughput ("60 smiles per half hour") and 30-to-45-second window times; and William Blair analyst Sharon Zackfia on "more than 45,000 US coffee shops," 16,000-plus more units needed over the next decade, and "not a zero-sum game anytime soon."
  7. Dutch Bros Q4 2025 earnings call and release (February 2026): 1,136 system shops across 25 states at year-end 2025, record $2.1 million system AUV, 154 new shops in 2025, a 2,029-shop target by 2029 and a 7,000-unit long-term opportunity, company capex cut from $1.8 million to $1.3 million per shop, beverage/food/packaging costs up 160 bps to 27% of company-operated revenue, and 19 consecutive years of positive same-store sales.
  8. 7 Brew, via SharpSheets and QSR Magazine (2025–2026): ~602 locations entering 2026 (578 franchised + 24 corporate), growth exceeding 4,200% since 2022, Blackstone-backed, an FDD-reported AUV near $2.55 million, and FDD Item 7 investment of roughly $941,000–$2,284,000.
  9. Scooter's Coffee FDD, Items 19 and 7 (2024–2025): ~932 stores across 32 states at year-end 2025, system AUV of $885,355 with a top-quartile of $1,276,780, a 6% royalty plus a 2% brand fund, and investment of $794,000–$1,341,500 (with a $40,000 franchise fee).
  10. Dunkin', via Restaurant Dive (2025) and VetMyFranchise (2026): upwards of 10,000 US units, heavily franchised, traditional-unit AUV of roughly $1.0–$1.4 million, and FDD Item 7 investment of ~$230,000–$1,832,500; owned by Inspire Brands.
  11. Tim Hortons US, via RBI (2025), and Peet's, via Technomic / Restaurant Business (2025): Tim Hortons at 700-plus US franchised units; Peet's at ~255 mostly company-run US cafes with ~$303 million in system sales; Caribou at 800-plus cafes (Panera Brands / JAB).
  12. Coffee Intelligence (October 2025), citing University of Texas research and Placer.ai: drive-thru throughput and footprint economics, five-to-eight minutes per car, 7 Brew system sales up 163% in a year to over $500 million, Black Rock Coffee Bar's 2025 IPO ($294.1 million raised at a ~$1.32 billion valuation), and the Placer.ai drive-thru behavioral-shift estimate.
  13. National Restaurant Association, Off-Premises Restaurant Trends report: nearly 75% of all restaurant traffic now happens off-premises.
  14. Forbes (January 2026): Starbucks' May 2022 announcement that 90% of new locations would include a drive-thru, ~60% of orders still originating in the store, and a +4% US comparable-store-sales quarter ended December 28, 2025 under the "Back to Starbucks" turnaround.
  15. Perfect Daily Grind and Food & Wine (February 2025; Perfect Daily Grind, October 2025): ICE arabica record above US$4.30/lb (peaking near US$4.41/lb), the highest since the 1977 Brazil frost, a ~70–79% YoY increase, ~$3.10–$3.50/lb in late 2025, and elevated prices viewed as a "new normal."
  16. Consumer Price Index, via the U.S. Chamber of Commerce (2026), with Mintel: US retail coffee prices up 18.3% year over year as of January 2026, and an at-home "fourth wave" led by cold brew.
  17. VantaInsights (2026) and operator sources: net margins of ~2.5–7% for a typical shop and 10–25% for mature, well-run shops, with beverage gross margins of 70–80%+, food 50–65%, and retail beans 55–75%. Advisory/operator benchmarks, directionally consistent but not audited primary data.
  18. BusinessDojo (2025–2026): espresso gross margins of 70–80% and cold brew ~80%, with the 10 a.m.–noon window producing 30–40% of daily sales.
  19. CoffeeFest: a drive-thru throughput benchmark of 60–300 customers per 30,000 AM vehicles (6–10 a.m.) and 50–70% of drive-thru volume concentrated in the morning daypart.
  20. Roast Launch (2026): ramp to full volume in 9–18 months, year-one net margins of 0–6% (or a small loss) reaching a stabilized 12–18% in years two–three, per-visit frequency economics, 3–6 months of recommended working-capital reserves, and 2026 state minimum-wage increases.
  21. BizBuySell, Coffee Shop & Cafe Valuation Benchmarks (2025): half of coffee-shop businesses valued and sold between 1.5 and 2.55 times SDE, an average earnings multiple of ~2.23x in 2025 (down 5% YoY), and average surviving-shop values up 38% from $127,500 to $176,500 post-pandemic.
  22. CT Acquisitions (2026), Peak Business Valuation, and DealStream / Jaken Equities: going-concern multiples of 1.5x–3x SDE (independent single), 2.5x–4x SDE (multi-unit), ~4x–6x EBITDA (specialty 5–15 units), ~3x–5x SDE (single-unit franchise), and ~5x–7x EBITDA (multi-unit franchise); Peak SDE 2.03x–3.26x and EBITDA 2.47x–3.86x; equipment condition and a favorable lease each moving the multiple 5–15%.
  23. Westwood Net Lease (2026), SRS Real Estate Partners (2025), and The Boulder Group (Q2 2025): STNL cap rates in Q1 2025 of ~5.25% (Dutch Bros), ~5.65% (Starbucks), ~6.0–6.5% (Dunkin'), and ~6.5–7.5% (Scooter's); a San Bernardino Dutch Bros ground lease at 4.52% (July 2025); Starbucks STNL ~6.40% (Boulder Group, Q2 2025, a different sample and date); and coffee's recession-resistant daily-habit thesis.
  24. B+E (2025) and ScrapeHero (2025): Texas leading the nation in QSR net-lease inventory, followed by Florida and California; and highest Starbucks density in California (3,000-plus stores), Texas, and Florida.
  25. Buildout-cost sources, joe Coffee, Restroworks, BusinessCostHQ, Bellwether, and 7shifts (2025–2026): kiosk/cart ~$25,000–$150,000; small espresso bar / neighborhood cafe ~$80,000–$300,000; full-service or drive-thru cafe ~$150,000–$400,000+; a commercial espresso machine ~$5,000–$20,000+; and equipment at 15–40% of total startup cost.
  26. U.S. Small Business Administration, SOP 50 10 8 (effective June 1, 2025): the reinstated Franchise Directory (SBA Franchise Identifier Code and executed documents required before disbursement), owner-occupancy tests (51% existing / 60% new), and 7(a) terms (up to $5 million; up to 25 years with real estate, 10 years for equipment and working capital).
  27. Reliant Business Valuation, Withum, QuickRead / NACVA (October 22, 2025), Starfield & Smith and Taft Law (2025), and Windsor Advantage: the $250,000 goodwill/intangible business-valuation trigger (SOP 50 10 8, p. 142), Qualified Source credentials (ASA, CBA, ABV, CVA, BCA), the 36-month re-appraisal rule, the July 31, 2025 Franchisor Certification deadline, and collateral valuation caps (real estate 85%, new equipment 75%, used equipment 50%).
  28. Crestmont Capital (2025–2026): 7(a) buildout and working-capital loans layered with separate equipment financing (2–5 business-day funding; 2–7 year terms matched to equipment life) to fund espresso machines and reduce 7(a) principal.
  29. sba7a.loans / Janover and the GoSBA 2025 SBA FOIA analysis: roughly 10% of SBA loans going to franchises; 7(a) franchise loans defaulting at 9.64% versus 10.28% for non-franchise loans; and Scooter's Coffee and Domino's among the most-funded brands.
  30. Keurig Dr Pepper 8-K and CNBC (2025–2026): the August 2025 agreement to acquire JDE Peet's (owner of Peet's) at a ~$18 billion / $23 billion enterprise value (12.9x 2026E EBITDA), closing in H1 2026 with a planned Global Coffee Co. / Beverage Co. split; and Franchise Equity Partners' September 2025 purchase of 7 Brew's second-largest franchisee.
  31. CNBC and Forbes (2025–2026): Starbucks Workers United representing more than 12,000 workers across 650-plus of roughly 11,000 company-operated North American stores, repeated strikes (including "Red Cup Day" 2025), and no ratified contract as of early 2026.