The Practice
A Market-Led Feasibility Study Firm
Every feasibility conclusion is a market claim first. How many customers are there, how much competing supply already serves them, what will they pay, and how fast will a new project fill? We answer those questions with dated, sourced evidence before we build a single line of the pro forma, and we put a named principal's signature on the market conclusion a lender relies on.
Why we treat feasibility as a market question
Federal rules define a feasibility study by its parts. Under 7 CFR 5001.3, a feasibility study is a report by an independent qualified consultant "evaluating the economic, market, technical, financial, and management feasibility of the proposed project or operation" [1]. In practice the market component decides the other four. Revenue, ramp-up, staffing and debt coverage all inherit the demand, rate and capture assumptions. If those assumptions are asserted rather than measured, the financial section is only arithmetic on a guess.
So we start where weaker studies end: we delineate the trade area, count the households, visitors and businesses in it, inventory every competitor and every project in the pipeline, survey what the market actually charges, and derive capture and absorption from that evidence. Then we test how much debt the realistic case can carry.
How we measure a market
- Trade area delineation. Drive-time and gravity models, checked against commuting flows, visitor origin data and state traffic counts where the use depends on them (fuel, car wash, quick-service restaurants, travel centers).
- Demand quantification. Population, households, income, age and employment from Census and BLS series; visitor and room-night demand for hospitality; boat, RV and vehicle registrations for storage and marine uses. Margins of error are shown, not hidden.
- Competitive supply inventory. Every operating competitor, located and described: size, product, season, amenities and published rates.
- Pipeline tracking. Building permits, planning board and zoning agendas, and announced projects. Supply is reported as existing plus pipeline, never existing alone. In our Townsend, Tennessee case, a 75-cabin resort that broke ground this autumn is the single largest variable in the loan.
- Rate and rent surveys. Published rates and documented quotes, each dated. Where data vendors disagree, we show both and underwrite between them.
- Gap, penetration and capture. Net demand against competitive supply, following the Appraisal Institute's sequence of market delineation, demand, supply, equilibrium and subject capture, and tested against published thresholds where they exist.
- Absorption and sensitivity. Ramp-up from comparable openings, seasonality by month, and downside cases a credit committee can test.
What the market-first approach changes
The worked cases show the method reaching different answers in different markets:
- In Ossipee, New Hampshire, seasonal-site demand supports a 32-pad expansion at mid-market rates, but not an acquisition priced at listing-level expectations.
- In Oak Hill, West Virginia, a record national park sits beside a rental market whose supply grew 47.8% in a year. Local rates, not national glamping averages, set the loan.
- In Cape Coral, Florida, the boats are there, but published rack rates would need to roughly double to pay for a new building. The case says so.
A study that can say no is the only kind whose yes is worth anything to a lender.
Where our numbers come from
| Data | Publisher | Typical use | Public or licensed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population, households, income, housing, permits, business patterns, commuting | U.S. Census Bureau (ACS, Population Estimates, BPS, CBP, LEHD) | Trade area demand | Public, cited with vintage |
| Employment and wages | Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW, OEWS, LAUS) | Demand base and operating payroll | Public |
| Personal income and migration | BEA; IRS Statistics of Income | Spending power and in-migration | Public |
| SBA 7(a) and 504 loan records | U.S. Small Business Administration FOIA files | Lending activity by industry and state | Public |
| National park, state park and visitor statistics | NPS, state tourism offices | Hospitality and outdoor demand | Public |
| Vessel, RV and vehicle registrations; traffic counts | State agencies and DOTs | Marine, storage, fuel and roadside uses | Public |
| Short-term rental performance | AirDNA, AirROI and similar vendors' public market pages | Rate and occupancy bands | Public market pages only; both vendors shown when they disagree |
| Hotel, commercial real estate and storage comparables | Licensed providers | Client reports | Licensed; cited, never republished |
Our rules: every figure carries its source and an "as of" date; estimates that are suppressed or unreliable are labeled, never filled; vendor disagreements are shown; licensed data stays inside client reports; corrections are dated.
The standards we work inside
- USDA Rural Development. 7 CFR Part 5001 and the feasibility study outline in Appendix A to Subpart D, with its economic, market, technical, financial and management components. An independent study is required for B&I guaranteed loans above $1,000,000 to a new business [1].
- SBA. 13 CFR 120.160(b) allows SBA to require a feasibility study, and lenders request one for specialized property and start-ups. SOP 50 10 8.1 took effect on October 1, 2026 [2].
- HUD. The MAP Guide (4430.G) sets market study timing: an effective date within 120 days before pre-application and within 180 days before firm commitment [3].
- Rental housing. The National Council of Housing Market Analysts' Model Content Standards, updated September 2025, adopted in whole or part by most state housing credit agencies [4].
- Market analysis practice. The Appraisal Institute's six-step market analysis, and James Graaskamp's test of feasibility: a reasonable likelihood of satisfying explicit objectives when a course of action is tested against specific constraints and limited resources [5].
Who stands behind the research
Research on this site is directed by Mark Otava, Principal, Market Research. He reviews the trade area, demand, supply and capture analysis in every study and signs the market conclusion that a lender relies on.
Every credential listed here links to the issuing body's public directory so you can check it yourself. A credential without a working verification link is not displayed.
Independence
We are not a lender, a broker or an investment advisor. A feasibility study is only useful to a credit officer if it can reach a conclusion the sponsor did not want, and our worked cases include one that does.
Built for the people who read the study
- Credit officers and reviewers get the market evidence in the order a credit memo needs it, with every figure dated and sourced.
- Sponsors and developers learn early what rate, scale and capital structure the market supports, before they spend on design and permits.
- Program staff at USDA, SBA lenders and CDCs get a study organized to the program's own outline.
Questions about how we work
Is a market study the same as a feasibility study?
No. A market study measures demand, supply, rate and capture. A feasibility study takes those results and tests whether the specific project, at its specific cost and financing, can meet its objectives and service its debt. Ours begin with the market study and carry it through the financials.
What capture rate is too high?
It depends on the asset and the program. Some state housing agencies publish limits, such as an overall capture rate of 10% or less for tax-credit housing. Where no published threshold exists, we compare the subject's required capture with what comparable openings achieved.
How current is your data?
Each figure shows its date. Federal series refresh on their own schedules, from quarterly (SBA loan files, QCEW) to annual (ACS). For HUD market studies, the effective date must fall within 120 days of pre-application.
How do you handle rural markets with thin data?
We say where the data are thin, use the nearest reliable geography, and widen the downside case. Rural markets are where USDA programs concentrate, so thin data is a normal condition, not a reason to guess.
Do you provide appraisals?
An opinion of value is a separate assignment, prepared by a state-certified appraiser under USPAP. Our studies identify what the appraisal must address, such as going-concern value and equipment discounts.
Can I cite your published figures?
Yes, with attribution and a link. The underlying federal data are public domain; the analysis is ours.
Start with the market
If you are financing a project with SBA, USDA, EB-5 or conventional capital, the first question a lender will ask is whether the market supports it.
Request a methodology briefingSources
- eCFR, 7 CFR Part 5001, Guaranteed Loans (5001.3 definitions; 5001.306; Appendix A to Subpart D). https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-7/subtitle-B/chapter-L/part-5001
- eCFR, 13 CFR 120.160; SBA SOP 50 10 8.1, effective October 1, 2026. https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-13/chapter-I/part-120
- U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Multifamily Accelerated Processing (MAP) Guide 4430.G, 2020 edition as revised, Section 7.5.
- National Housing and Rehabilitation Association, NCHMA Model Content Standards. https://www.housingonline.com/councils/national-council-housing-market-analysts/model-content-standards/
- University of Wisconsin Digital Collections, James A. Graaskamp, feasibility analysis writings. https://search.library.wisc.edu/digital/A2LHAIFJSCMR5K8C/text/AJWJCH3NXUN5WF8B