Minnesota Feasibility Studies

The population story is one of slowing arrivals. Minnesota added about 33,000 residents in the year to July 2025, growth of +0.6%, after a total increase of 44,400 the year before ²⁵²⁶. Arrivals from abroad fell, with net international migration at +12,486 against 33,400 a year earlier ²⁵²⁶, while domestic migration turned positive at +8,300 ²⁶, the first net gain from other states this decade by the Star Tribune's reading ²⁵. Two consequences follow for a demand model. Arrivals from abroad should be carried at the 2025 level, not the 2024 one. And the turn in domestic movement, small as it is, is new: a study that counts on households moving in from other states should show where in Minnesota they are settling, because the statewide estimate does not say.

Jobs are the firmer foundation, and the table shows the gains gathering in institutions. Education and health services added the most jobs and government also grew ²²²³, the sectors of the hospital systems, the university and the state agencies that fill the employer table below. Information and financial activities show the steepest percentage losses in the table ²²²⁴. In Minnesota, then, hiring around a hospital campus or a public institution is borne out by the statewide series, while a demand case that rests on a bank, an insurer or a media firm runs against it and needs that employer's own figures.

The incomes behind that demand are solid. The 2020-2024 American Community Survey counts 2,307,955 Minnesota households and puts their median income at $89,062 ²⁷; for 2024, per capita personal income from the Bureau of Economic Analysis came to $75,603 ²⁸. The ACS labor force of 3,119,042 ²⁷ is the pool every employer competes for, which is why wage assumptions matter as much as demand in a labor-intensive project. The same ACS release counts 992,385 residents aged 65 and over ²⁷, the base from which any senior housing or memory care study builds its age- and income-qualified pool before narrowing to a primary market area.

The table holds the health systems and public bodies; it leaves out Mayo Clinic and Target, both among the largest employers in the state ⁶⁷. The two lists give different counts for the State of Minnesota and for Fairview, so a study that cites an employer to support demand should name the list, its date and whether the figure is statewide or local. Wells Fargo's Minnesota bank workforce of about 11,000 on the DEED list ⁷ sits in financial activities, the sector with the largest job loss in the payroll table. Mayo Clinic's statewide counts, which also differ between the two lists, are set out in the questions at the end of this page; the Rochester section works from the institution's building program instead.

Health care and senior housing

Minnesota repealed certificate of need in 1984 and replaced it, for hospitals, with a construction moratorium under Minn. Stat. 144.551 ⁸. New hospital beds therefore need a statutory exception, and in 2026 the Legislature enacted one in Laws 2026, chapter 91 ⁹. A second moratorium, in Minn. Stat. 144A.071, governs the certification of nursing home beds, with exceptions through 144A.073 ¹⁰. For a lender, a skilled nursing or hospital study in Minnesota begins with the approval pathway. A demand analysis that shows unmet need is necessary but not sufficient, because the beds cannot be licensed without the exception.

Assisted living is different. Since August 1, 2021 Minnesota has issued two licenses, one for an assisted living facility and one for an assisted living facility with dementia care ⁴⁰. The provisional fee for the dementia care license is $3,000, with $150 added for each unit of licensed capacity, above the standard facility's schedule ¹¹. A memory care study should therefore name the license the building is designed to hold and budget for that category rather than a blend of the two.

Restaurants, bars and liquor

Liquor licenses in Minnesota are issued by cities and counties, with fees set locally, but statute caps how many a city may issue ⁴¹. Cities of 10,000 or fewer may run their own municipal liquor stores ⁴², which can mean a private off-sale store competes with a city-owned one. A study for a restaurant or bar should confirm that a license is available, or name the license being transferred, before it projects alcohol sales.

Gas stations and convenience stores

The MPCA counts about 22,000 petroleum release sites in Minnesota and is re-evaluating nearly 5,000 sites where leaded gasoline was released ⁴³. Any acquisition of an older fuel site therefore starts with the environmental file. The Petrofund reimburses up to 90% of eligible cleanup costs and has no sunset date ⁴⁴. Its board reported an unencumbered balance of $17,227,238 as of August 22, 2025, after paying $4,657,120 on 272 claims in FY2025 ⁴⁵, and it imposed a fee from September 1 to December 31, 2025 ⁴⁴. For a lender the fund is a backstop, not a guarantee: the study should identify whether the site has an open release, whether a claim is pending and what the borrower's share of eligible cost would be.

Labor and lodging

Minnesota's minimum wage applies to all employers at $11.41 an hour from January 1, 2026, with a 90-day training wage of $9.31 for workers under 20 ⁴⁶. The rate was $11.13 in 2025 and is indexed annually with a cap of 5% ⁴⁷; one law firm reports the 2027 rate at $11.87 ⁴⁸. New meal and rest break rules took effect on the same January 2026 date ⁴⁷. A labor-intensive business, whether a restaurant, a child care center or an assisted living building, should model wages at the published indexed rate for each projection year rather than holding them flat. Lodging stays under 30 days carry the state sales tax of 6.875% before any local lodging tax ⁴⁹, and there is no statewide short-term rental license, so rules come from each city or county ⁵⁰.

The recent record is local rather than statewide. FEMA declared DR-4894 for the Leech Lake Band of Ojibwe on October 22, 2025, and authorized fire management assistance for the Munger Shaw Fire on May 14, 2025; the prior major declaration, DR-4797, followed the June 2024 flooding ⁵⁶. In October 2025 the SBA issued an administrative disaster declaration covering nine northern counties, with an economic injury loan deadline of July 2, 2026 ⁵⁷. A borrower in one of those counties may have taken a disaster loan that now sits ahead of, or alongside, new debt, so the study's sources and uses and the lender's credit memo should both pick it up.

The research did not reach FEMA's National Risk Index or any county exposure metric for wind, flood or wildfire. A site-level study should close that gap with the parcel's flood map panel, the county risk profile and, for a lakeshore or river site, the shoreland and floodplain ordinance, before the insurance quote is obtained.

Data centers and large electric loads

A 2025 law, Minn. Stat. 216B.1623, set up a large-load electric customer class for loads of at least 100 MW, with the Public Utilities Commission due to establish the class by December 15, 2026 ¹⁷. The same law ended the sales tax exemption on data center electricity after June 30, 2025, while keeping the equipment exemption ¹⁷⁵⁹. Xcel filed a large-load tariff in July 2025, and the PUC required Dakota Electric to file one in December 2025 ⁶⁰. Statewide moratorium bills died when the Legislature adjourned on May 18, 2026 ⁶¹, after Eagan had adopted its own pause in February and before Minneapolis adopted one on May 21 ¹⁸¹⁹, both covered in the Twin Cities section. Until the PUC rules on the class, the Xcel and Dakota Electric tariff dockets are where the price and timing of serving big loads will be settled, and no published document in the research shows an ordinary borrower in those territories how its own service upgrade will be charged.

SBA rule changes

A Minnesota lender's own summary notes that the 2025 SOP took effect on June 1, 2025, that the credit-score prescreen was retired on March 1, 2026, and that from July 4, 2026 an outstanding 7(a) balance no longer reduces a borrower's 504 availability ⁶². Of the provisions in force under SOP 50 10 8.1 with Technical Policy Updates ⁶³, two bear on the Minnesota projects this page discusses most. A start-up borrowing on a standard 7(a) loan has to show its projections reaching 1.15x coverage within the period the SOP allows, while a small 7(a) loan has a coverage test of its own. A 504 borrower whose business is two years old or less and whose building is a limited or special purpose property carries the 20% equity tier ⁶³. Minnesota files meet the remaining rules too; they are covered by the SBA 7(a) and 504 practice area. A study written under the earlier SOP should be rechecked against the current one before closing.

As the federal (OMB) metro delineation used by the site's market register draws it, the Minnesota side of Minneapolis-St. Paul is Anoka, Carver, Chisago, Dakota, Hennepin, Isanti, Le Sueur, Mille Lacs, Ramsey, Scott, Sherburne, Washington and Wright counties. Wisconsin has its own state page. DEED reports metro payrolls only for the whole two-state metro, Pierce and St. Croix counties included, so this section does not carry that series; a Twin Cities study should build its employment case from Minnesota county data. The broker and CoStar market figures below describe the Twin Cities as each firm draws the market, which the research does not split by state. No 2025 estimate for the whole metro turned up in the research. Hennepin County, its largest, was estimated at 1,284,784 in July 2025 against 1,281,565 at the 2020 Census ⁶⁴, and the State Demographic Center put the City of Minneapolis at 435,246 in 2025 ⁶⁵. The core county is barely growing, so a study of a core site needs to show demand from existing residents and workers, not from growth.

Residential construction tells the same story. The Twin Cities area permitted 8,611 housing units on 6,387 permits in 2024, with single-family building the strongest segment ⁶⁶; the research found no 2025 count. On the employment side, the named projects are medical devices and logistics: Boston Scientific's Maple Grove expansion was reported as advancing in May 2026 at $131M, 52,500 sq ft and 440 jobs ⁶⁷, and an Amazon build-to-suit of 3.6M sq ft was under construction in the second quarter ⁶⁸.

The apartment market is absorbing well and building less. Strong first-half absorption and a moderate pipeline support a lease-up assumption for a well-located new building; what neither Yardi nor the brokers publish is a vacancy rate, so the lease-up pace in a study has to rest on the buildings it will actually compete with. The two brokers' industrial vacancy readings differ, and a study should cite both and say which submarket definition it follows; Colliers flags the South Central and Southwest submarkets and bulk warehouse product as the places where new supply is pressing on vacancy ⁶⁸. Most of the industrial pipeline is build-to-suit, which is good news for a speculative small-bay project and a warning for a large speculative box. Retail is a story of two markets: suburban centers are tight while urban storefronts carry far higher vacancy, a gap that should drive the rent and lease-up assumptions for any urban mixed-use ground floor.

Hotels are the weak segment. CoStar reported January 2026 occupancy of 50.6% (+17.5%) and RevPAR of $63.01 (+25.9%) ⁷³, but attributed part of the gain to federal-agent activity and protests, a one-off driver. In November 2025 the market's 51.9% occupancy ranked last among the 25 largest U.S. markets ⁷⁴, and HVS measured the shortfall of Minneapolis RevPAR against the national figure at more than $20 in 2025, against $5 in 2019 ⁷⁵. A hotel study here should not annualize the January jump; it should start from the 2025 base and show what has to happen for the gap to close.

Local taxes and data center pauses

A $1 million commercial property in Minneapolis paid an effective rate of 2.36% in 2024, a bill of $28,264, and 2.19% without the classification effect ⁷⁶. Minneapolis may levy combined lodging taxes up to 13% on hotels of 50 or more rooms, by a 2019 authorization ⁷⁷. Eagan adopted the state's first one-year moratorium on new large data centers in February 2026 ¹⁹, and Minneapolis followed in May with a six-month pause, through November 21, 2026, on facilities over 350,000 sq ft ¹⁸. Neither stops an ordinary commercial project, but both signal that utility capacity and land use around large loads are contested in the core metro.

Duluth's economy rests on health care and tourism, and both are visible in the evidence. Essentia Health, the city's largest employer, commissioned a Northspan analysis that credits its Twin Ports operations with more than $4.5B in economic output and more than 14,800 direct and indirect jobs ⁸⁵. It is a self-published impact study, but it frames the scale of the anchor. Essentia opened its $915M St. Mary's Medical Center in July 2023 ⁸⁶, and Aspirus committed at least $300M over eight years to strategic projects at St. Luke's when the two systems merged in 2024 ⁸⁷. Medical office, senior housing and workforce rentals near either campus have a documented employer behind them.

The broader economy is hard to read from published series: DEED's payroll count covers the two-state Duluth-Superior metro, Douglas County included, so this page does not use it, and St. Louis County, which also holds the Iron Range, counted 200,630 residents in 2025 by one secondary estimate ⁸⁸. With no 2020 base for the county and no permit or space data beside it, the Duluth evidence the research found centers on the hospitals and the lodging trade; for a warehouse, storage or retail file in the city it found no local benchmark, and the study has to supply its own.

Lodging is the best-measured sector. Hotel occupancy slipped by 2% year over year in the second half of 2024, according to the STR report cited by a local general manager ⁸⁹. The city's tax receipts then rebounded: the 3% hotel and motel tax brought in $212,756 (+18.5%) on January 2026 sales, against $179,492 a year earlier, and the additional 2.5% tax on larger properties $140,438 (+12.0%) ⁹⁰. Monthly tax receipts are an imperfect proxy, but they are public, timely and specific to the city, and a hotel study should chart them against its projected revenue path.

The tax stack shapes the room rate. A guest at a hotel of more than 30 rooms pays the higher of the two combined rates in the table ⁹¹, and a study that benchmarks Duluth rates against tax-exclusive figures elsewhere will overstate what the market will bear. The debt service earmark also tells a lender that tourism tax receipts, lodging among them, carry part of the city's debt payments.

Mankato metro payrolls grew by +2,194 (+3.9%) in the year ending August 2026, the fastest pace of any Minnesota metro ¹⁶. The employer base behind that growth spans several industries. Greater Mankato Growth's list, with 2022 estimates, puts Taylor Corporation first at 2,539 full-time equivalents, followed by Mayo Clinic Health System at 1,871, Minnesota State University, Mankato at 1,600, the St. Peter Regional Treatment Center at 1,500 and Mankato Area Public Schools at 1,150 ⁹⁸. Manufacturing, health care, higher education and state institutions do not all move together, which makes the base more resilient than a single-anchor market.

Set against that growth, the published record is thin and dated. The employer counts are 2022 estimates, and neither county has, in the research, a 2025 population estimate, a permit count or a figure for any property type. The best job growth in the state is therefore a claim a Mankato study has to connect to its own site: where the new hires live, which properties they already fill, and what rents and rates those properties achieve. Hotels in Mankato charge a 3.0% local lodging tax ¹⁵, which a rate comparison with other Minnesota cities should set out layer by layer.

Crow Wing County's tax base shows what kind of market this is. Its taxable market value for taxes payable in 2026 is $21,286,099,053, of which 48.23% is residential and 37.12% seasonal property ¹⁰⁰. A county where seasonal cabins and lake homes carry that share of value has a demand profile unlike any metro: population and spending swell in summer and on weekends, and many of the households that support restaurants, marinas, fitness and retail are not counted as residents. A study here has to model seasonal demand explicitly, month by month, and should not divide annual sales by year-round population to judge a market's depth.

New construction added $260,310,600 of value, +1.22%, to the 2026 roll ¹⁰⁰. Levies are rising quickly: the county set a +6.49% increase for 2026 ¹⁰⁰ and a preliminary +4.99% for 2027, while the same September 2026 report put the City of Brainerd's levy change at +9.99%, without restating the levy year ¹⁰¹. Property tax is a meaningful operating cost for any owner-occupied business, and a study should take the levy of the subject's own city and school district rather than a county average. Because no 2025 series the research reached measures the county's population, jobs or building permits, the tax roll is the best public record of where money is going in this market.

Tourism marketing was itself contested. After a dispute over lodging tax payments, the destination marketing organization rebranded for 2026 as Visit Brainerd Baxter, and the City of Brainerd's contribution to its budget is $20,000 ¹⁰². For a hotel or campground study, that history means the marketing budget behind the destination is not guaranteed year to year.

Moorhead is the Minnesota side of the Fargo metro, in Clay County, and the research found its municipal development data unusually complete. The city issued 1,012 building permits in 2025 for building investment of $113,740,535, down from $130.9M in 2024 and $156.9M in 2023 ¹⁰⁸. Residential units permitted fell over the same three years.

The report gives a lender two measures a study can use directly: a count of serviced lots set against the long-run pace of single-family building, about a year of supply by the city's own reading, and the specific multifamily projects under way. The city is also investing in capacity: two 11th Street underpasses costing $171.6M were due for completion in fall 2026, a $40M wastewater treatment upgrade was in final design in 2026, and a business park expansion received a $2M state grant ¹⁰⁸. A study in Moorhead should treat the Fargo side as part of the market, and the research covers only the Minnesota side.

Lake County is the only county among the local lodging tax examples the research gives; its rate appears among the questions on this page ¹⁵. The research found no occupancy, rate or revenue series for Lake County lodging, so a resort or campground study there has to assemble its own record from the operating statements of comparable properties and show its revenue month by month.

Cases built in other states are collected on the case studies page. Across Minnesota's borders, Wisconsin and Iowa have state pages of their own, and Iowa's Des Moines page is the closest metro page to the south.