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Illinois · Market Intelligence

Illinois Feasibility Studies

An independent, lender-grade feasibility practice for Illinois across SBA 7(a) and 504, USDA Rural Development, EB-5, and conventional capital. This page is our standing, sourced read on where Illinois markets are oversupplied, how deals actually get funded Chicago versus downstate, and where Illinois feasibility studies fail review.

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12.7M
Residents, July 2024, first gain in a decade1
~75%
Of Illinoisans in the Chicago metro2
2.07%
Effective property-tax rate, 2nd-highest US24
28.6%
Chicago CBD office vacancy, Q1 2026 record11
The Illinois Thesis

A statewide Illinois number is indefensible.

Illinois is functionally two states, and a single statewide assumption blends them into nonsense. Greater Chicago, the Chicago–Naperville–Elgin metro of roughly 9.4 million people, is a global gateway and one of the largest office, logistics, and multifamily markets in the country; the vast downstate—Peoria, Rockford, Springfield, Champaign–Urbana, Bloomington–Normal, the Quad Cities, and the Metro East—is largely rural, agriculture- and manufacturing-based, and slow-growing or outright shrinking. Roughly three-quarters of all Illinoisans live in the Chicago metro.2

The same asset class routinely moves in opposite directions across the two. Self-storage street rates rose four to six percent year over year in Chicago on chronic undersupply while falling 9.4 percent in Aurora, an exurban collar city that lost about nine percent of its population over five years.5 A study built on a statewide average misprices nearly every deal. Decisively, Illinois is also a full Certificate of Need state—the opposite of Texas—so hospital, surgical-center, and skilled-nursing supply is gated by a permit rather than the market. Any study that ports a “no CON, market-driven supply” assumption into Illinois is catastrophically wrong.23

The signature Illinois underwriting variable is property tax. The state carries the second-highest effective rate in the nation, 2.07 percent, behind only New Jersey, and Cook County’s triennial reassessment and heavily litigated appeals make commercial net operating income volatile.24 Property-tax mispricing alone can flip a feasible deal. What follows is organized as a working desk: a live oversupply monitor, a funding-routing map split Chicago versus downstate, the review failures that sink Illinois studies, the regulatory edges that decide outcomes, and a per-metro demand fingerprint. Every figure is dated and attributed in the sources below.

The Oversupply & Pipeline Monitor

Where Illinois markets stand, metro by metro.

A supply-pressure read for each metro and asset class, refreshed each quarter from named primary sources. “Thin” means the market is too small to underwrite at scale, not that it is balanced. Data current to Q2 2026.

Supply pressure: Oversupplied Balanced Undersupplied Digesting / thin
Metro Multifamily Industrial Office Self-Storage
Chicago city / downtown Undersupplied~1.5% of stock u/c Digesting8.6% avail. (CBRE) Oversupplied28.6% CBD vac., record Undersupplied3.5 sf/capita
Chicago suburbs / collar Balanced Digestingrecord delivery cycle Oversupplied33.4% suburban avail. OversuppliedAurora rates −9.4%
Rockford Balancedrent +4.1% YoY Undersuppliedaerospace / logistics Thin Balanced
Peoria Balancedsoft demand BalancedCaterpillar-linked Thin Balanced
Springfield Balanced Thin Thin Balanced
Champaign–Urbana Balancedstudent-driven Thin Thin Balanced
Bloomington–Normal UndersuppliedRivian demand UndersuppliedEV suppliers Thin Balanced
Quad Cities (IL) Balanced Balanced Thin Balanced
Metro East Balanced UndersuppliedSt. Louis logistics Thin Balanced

Readings compiled from sources 3–18 below. Vendor vacancy and availability estimates for the same metro differ by methodology; each figure is attributed at its point of use.

Multifamily: Chicago outperformed on supply discipline

Chicago has been a national rent-growth leader precisely because it did not overbuild, the inverse of the Sun Belt oversupply story. Yardi Matrix put Chicago at 3.7 percent year-over-year rent growth in early 2025, tied for second nationally with Kansas City and behind only New York’s 5.5 percent, even as oversupplied metros fell—Austin down 5.4 percent, Denver down 3.6, Phoenix down 3.0.3 As of the fourth quarter of 2025 only about 8,600 units were under construction, roughly 1.5 percent of inventory and well below the national average; downtown delivered under 300 units in 2025, and the metro pipeline is now dominated by adaptive-reuse office conversions.4 Downstate multifamily is balanced and slow-growth, with Rockford rents up about 4.1 percent year over year and Bloomington–Normal tightening on Rivian-driven demand.56

Self-storage: undersupplied in the city, softening in the exurbs

Chicago is chronically undersupplied on a per-capita basis, about 3.5 square feet per person against a roughly 7.0 national average, with street rates up 4.5 percent year over year to about $137 in January 2026.5 That scarcity does not extend to the collar counties: Aurora street rates fell 9.4 percent year over year after the exurban city lost about nine percent of its population over five years, and Joliet fell 4.9 percent.5 This is the asset class where a single statewide per-capita figure fails most violently—the city and its exurbs move in opposite directions in the same quarter.

Industrial: the logistics megamarket is digesting a record cycle

Chicago is one of the largest logistics markets in North America, anchored by the CenterPoint Intermodal Center in Joliet and Elwood, the largest master-planned inland port on the continent at roughly 6,400 acres and two Class I rail terminals.10 The signature story is digestion, not collapse. After pandemic-era vacancy below three percent and double-digit rent growth, the market has reset, and Q1 2026 readings diverge widely by method: CBRE put availability at 8.6 percent with net asking rent of $9.03 per square foot, Newmark total vacancy at 5.3 percent with sublease space falling, and WareCRE a stabilized 4.7 percent with rent growth decelerated to about 1.5 percent.789 Underwriting a 2021-era absorption and rent trajectory into this market is a signature failure mode. Downstate, Rockford’s aerospace and logistics base and Bloomington–Normal’s Rivian supplier demand run tighter than the metro average.6

Office: a signature distressed market

Chicago office is a signature distressed market. Downtown vacancy reached a record 28.6 percent in the first quarter of 2026, the fifteenth consecutive quarterly record, as tenants including Boeing and Citadel moved out and nearly half of vacant downtown space had sat empty more than three years.11 Suburban availability hit 33.4 percent, a twenty-first consecutive record, even as total suburban stock shrank to pre-recession lows.12 Flight-to-quality is extreme, and vintage Class B and C towers reportedly trade at “10 or 20 cents on the dollar.”14 The policy response, LaSalle Street Reimagined, is converting Loop office towers to residential—five short-listed projects totaling more than 1,400 units and roughly $249 million in tax-increment financing—but developers are explicit that “but for the incentive, this will not work.”13 Assuming stabilized office net operating income in this market is disqualifying.

Hotels, data centers, and the demand nodes downstate

Chicago’s hotel market is convention-driven through McCormick Place, the largest convention center in North America, and now carries the highest hotel tax rate in the country: a Tourism Improvement District effective May 1, 2026 raised the downtown rate to 19 percent.15 The state’s data-center cluster is a genuine growth story—developers committed $10.7 billion to 34 Illinois data centers through 2025, and Illinois ranks fourth nationally in total facilities—but power and interconnection are the binding constraint, and the state incentive window closed to new applicants on July 1, 2026.1617 Student housing anchors several downstate markets, led by the University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, which topped 60,000 enrollment for the first time in fall 2025.18 Senior housing and skilled nursing are gated by Certificate of Need, so oversupply risk in those categories is structurally low.

The Funding-Routing Map

How an Illinois deal actually gets funded.

Feasibility work exists to satisfy a specific reviewer. Knowing which channel funds your asset in your region—and whether it routes through Chicago or downstate—is half the battle. This is the routing most feasibility pages never publish.

SBA and USDA channels in Illinois
A single SBA district office in Chicago services the entire state; USDA routes through Champaign.1922
ChannelCoverage / role
SBA Illinois District Office (Chicago)Entire state; the SBA Region 5 hub
USDA Rural Development (Champaign)Rural downstate, via 11 field offices
SomerCor — 504 CDC (Chicago)Statewide, plus adjacent WI and IN counties
Growth Corp — 504 CDCDownstate and statewide 504 lending
Byline Bank — 7(a)Illinois 7(a) Lender of the Year, 16 years running
Huntington National Bank, U.S. Bank — 7(a)Among the most active Illinois 7(a) lenders by volume

On the 504 side, Illinois is served by statewide Certified Development Companies. SomerCor, in Chicago, has deployed more than $1.84 billion to 2,816 businesses since 1992 and was named Coleman Report CDC of the Year for 2025; Growth Corp positions itself as the largest 504 lender downstate. Both claim market leadership, and the competing claims are self-reported and unresolved without the SBA data file.21 On the 7(a) side, Byline Bank has been named Illinois SBA 7(a) Lender of the Year for sixteen consecutive years and reported $119.6 million in Illinois 7(a) volume in fiscal 2024, while lender data ranks Huntington National Bank, U.S. Bank, and Byline among the most active in the state; roughly $6.55 billion of 7(a) credit was approved for Illinois businesses between fiscal 2020 and early fiscal 2026.1920 For rural credits, USDA Business and Industry, REAP, and Community Facilities loans route through the Illinois Rural Development state office in Champaign, and the largely agricultural downstate is broadly USDA-eligible, making these among the cheapest capital available outside the Chicago metro.22

  • Owner-occupied real estate or equipment, Chicago metroA bank first mortgage paired with a SomerCor 504 debenture.
  • Owner-occupied real estate or equipment, downstateA bank paired with a Growth Corp 504, or SomerCor on a statewide basis.
  • Working capital or a business acquisition, anywhereSBA 7(a) via Byline Bank, Huntington National Bank, or U.S. Bank.
  • Rural, ag-adjacent, small-town projectsUSDA Rural Development in Champaign; B&I, REAP, or Community Facilities, often the cheapest capital where eligible.
  • ManufacturingStack 7(a) and 504 under the July 4, 2026 decoupling, and capture the FY2026 fee waivers before September 30, 2026.
  • A hospital, surgical center, or skilled-nursing facilityBudget for an HFSRB Certificate of Need permit before financing, not after.
Common Review Failures

How Illinois feasibility studies fail review.

Each failure below is tied to a real Illinois number. These are the recurring reasons an Illinois study loses credibility with a lender or agency, engineered out of our deliverables before they ship.

  1. Statewide-average error

    Applying one statewide vacancy or rent assumption blends a 9.4-million global gateway with shrinking rural downstate. Concretely, self-storage rose four to six percent year over year in Chicago while falling 9.4 percent in Aurora: the same asset, moving in opposite directions.5

  2. Oversupply blindness

    Underwriting 2021 warehouse economics ignores the reset to roughly 5.3 to 8.6 percent industrial vacancy and 1.5 percent rent growth, and assuming stabilized office net operating income against 28.6 percent downtown and 33.4 percent suburban vacancy is disqualifying.711

  3. Certificate of Need error

    Porting a “no CON, market-driven supply” assumption from Texas into Illinois is catastrophic. Hospital, surgical-center, and skilled-nursing supply is permit-gated by the Health Facilities and Services Review Board, so a market-supply model is the wrong tool entirely.23

  4. Out-migration capture-rate error

    The 2024 population rebound of 67,899 was driven by international migration and masks 56,235 net domestic out-migration and population loss in 64 of 102 counties. Assuming growth-market absorption in shrinking Peoria, Rockford, or Decatur is a failure mode.1

  5. Property-tax mispricing

    At a 2.07 percent effective rate, second-highest in the nation, and with Cook County’s triennial reassessment and heavily litigated appeals, property-tax mispricing alone can flip a feasible deal. It is the signature Illinois variable and must be modeled, not assumed.24

  6. Fiscal and transfer-tax risk

    The March 2024 “Bring Chicago Home” graduated transfer tax failed 53.2 to 46.8 percent, removing a near-term overhang, but Chicago and state pension underfunding keeps future tax-increase risk live. A pro forma that treats today’s rates as permanent understates downside.26

  7. Union-labor and prevailing-wage omission

    Chicago is a strong union-labor market, and Illinois prevailing-wage requirements attach to public and TIF-subsidized work, materially raising hard costs versus downstate. A construction budget benchmarked to a right-to-work peer understates the capital stack.

Regulatory Edges

The Illinois rules that decide feasibility outcomes.

Four regulatory realities separate an Illinois study that survives review from one that does not. The first is the one competitors most often state wrong.

A full Certificate of Need regime, the opposite of Texas

Illinois is a full Certificate of Need state. The Illinois Health Facilities and Services Review Board must issue a permit for the establishment, construction, or major modification of hospitals, long-term-care and skilled-nursing facilities, ambulatory surgical treatment centers, dialysis centers, and similar facilities under the Health Facilities Planning Act, 20 ILCS 3960. As of July 1, 2025, the capital-expenditure minimums that trigger review are $17,787,538 for hospitals, $10,053,816 for long-term care, and $4,640,230 for all other applicants.23 Because supply is gated, market-driven oversupply risk in these categories is low—but the CON application is itself a lengthy, costly, competitive gating deliverable and a barrier to entry, built around a defined need methodology and a public-hearing process. Illinois sits with New York here, and opposite Texas and Pennsylvania; a study that treats it as an open-entry market is wrong on its face.

The nation’s second-highest property taxes

Illinois carries the second-highest effective property-tax rate in the country, 2.07 percent, behind only New Jersey; on the median home, the average family pays about $6,285 a year against a roughly $2,969 national average, and the state has nearly 7,000 local taxing units, more than any other.24 For commercial assets, Cook County’s triennial reassessment cycle and opaque, heavily litigated appeals process create large swings in net operating income between assessment years. The state’s combined corporate income tax of 9.5 percent—a 7 percent income tax plus the 2.5 percent Personal Property Replacement Tax—is among the highest in the nation and compounds the operating-cost load.25

The data-center incentive window just closed

Illinois’s Data Center Investment Program, enacted as Public Act 101-31, granted sales- and use-tax exemptions for projects investing at least $250 million and creating at least twenty jobs at 120 percent of the county median wage, with a green-building requirement. Developers committed $10.7 billion across 34 sites through 2025, clustering in Elk Grove Village’s “data center alley.” The material change to flag: per a June 5, 2026 directive from Governor Pritzker, the Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity stopped processing new program applications as of July 1, 2026, closing the state sales-tax-exemption pathway to new entrants pending further action.1716

Tailwinds in the sponsor’s favor

Two recent changes cut the other way. The March 2024 “Bring Chicago Home” transfer tax failed at the ballot, removing a near-term overhang on higher-value transactions;26 and the SBA decoupled its 7(a) and 504 limits effective July 4, 2026, letting a qualified borrower who takes a 7(a) loan first access up to $5 million via 7(a) plus up to $5 million via 504, a combined $10 million and the highest in agency history, with FY2026 manufacturing fee waivers sunsetting September 30, 2026.27

Metro Divergence

Eight Illinois markets, eight demand fingerprints.

Each metro carries its own economic base and its own supply position. These are the units of analysis for an Illinois study, and each anchors a dedicated market page.

Global gateway

Chicago

Finance, corporate headquarters, logistics, and tech across a metro of roughly 9.4 million, about three-quarters of the state. Multifamily is undersupplied downtown, industrial is digesting a record cycle, and office is in record distress.211

Aerospace & logistics

Rockford

Aerospace, logistics, and manufacturing, with roughly 337,000 residents in a market that is declining but stabilizing. Industrial runs tighter than the metro average, and rents are up about 4.1 percent year over year.16

Heavy manufacturing

Peoria

Caterpillar, healthcare, and agriculture across roughly 365,000 residents in a stagnant-to-declining market. Multifamily is balanced but demand is soft, and industrial tracks Caterpillar’s cycle.1

State government

Springfield

The state capital, government, and healthcare anchor roughly 207,000 residents. Balanced and slow-growth, with thin office and industrial that we build from primary local research.1

University & tech

Champaign–Urbana

The University of Illinois and a growing tech base support roughly 242,000 residents at a record high. UIUC topped 60,000 enrollment in fall 2025, anchoring a very large student-housing market.18

Insurance & EV

Bloomington–Normal

State Farm, Illinois State University, and the Rivian EV plant drive roughly 172,000 residents in one of the few growing downstate metros. Multifamily and industrial are tightening on Rivian supplier demand.18

Manufacturing & ag

Quad Cities

Manufacturing and agriculture on the Mississippi, with roughly 213,000 residents on the Illinois side of the bi-state metro. Balanced and slowly declining across most asset classes.1

St. Louis logistics

Metro East

The Illinois side of the St. Louis metro, St. Clair and Madison counties, roughly 514,000 residents. Logistics and manufacturing, with industrial growing on St. Louis-adjacent distribution demand.1

By Asset Class

Illinois feasibility studies by asset class.

Each asset class carries its own Illinois demand drivers, from Chicago’s intermodal logistics corridors to downstate agriculture to the property-tax overlay that reprices every pro forma. Explore the analytical approach by property type.

Illinois Questions

Illinois feasibility study questions.

Does Illinois require a feasibility study for an SBA loan?

Under SBA SOP 50 10 8, a feasibility study is discretionary rather than universally mandated, and lenders commonly require one for special-purpose properties and startup or ground-up projects that lack operating history. Because many Illinois credits involve special-purpose collateral and, for health care, a Certificate of Need application, feasibility analysis is frequently expected on Illinois SBA credits.

Does Illinois have a Certificate of Need law?

Yes. Illinois is a full Certificate of Need state. The Illinois Health Facilities and Services Review Board must issue a CON permit for the establishment, construction, or major modification of hospitals, skilled-nursing and long-term-care facilities, ambulatory surgical treatment centers, dialysis centers, and similar facilities under the Health Facilities Planning Act, 20 ILCS 3960. As of July 1, 2025 the capital thresholds triggering review are $17,787,538 for hospitals, $10,053,816 for long-term care, and $4,640,230 for all other applicants. This is the opposite of Texas, and any study that assumes market-driven health care supply in Illinois is wrong.

Which Illinois real estate markets are oversupplied right now?

As of Q2 2026, Chicago office is the clearest oversupply story, with record downtown vacancy near 28.6 percent and suburban availability near 33.4 percent. Chicago industrial is digesting a record delivery cycle rather than oversupplied outright, with vendor vacancy and availability ranging from about 4.7 to 8.6 percent. Chicago multifamily and self-storage are, unusually, undersupplied on supply discipline, while some exurban storage markets such as Aurora have softened.

Who funds SBA and USDA loans in Illinois?

A single SBA district office in Chicago services the entire state. On 504, statewide Certified Development Companies including SomerCor and Growth Corp lead; on 7(a), Byline Bank, Huntington National Bank, and U.S. Bank are among the most active. USDA Business and Industry, REAP, and Community Facilities credits route through the Illinois Rural Development state office in Champaign, and most of downstate is USDA-eligible.

How does Illinois property tax affect a feasibility study?

Decisively. Illinois has the second-highest effective property-tax rate in the nation at about 2.07 percent, behind only New Jersey, and Cook County's triennial reassessment and heavily litigated appeals process create large swings in commercial net operating income. Property-tax mispricing alone can flip an otherwise feasible deal, so we model it as a first-order variable rather than a fixed percentage.

How is an Illinois feasibility study different from a national one?

Illinois is functionally two markets. Greater Chicago is a global gateway metro with roughly three-quarters of the state's population, while downstate is largely rural and slow-growing or shrinking, and the same asset class routinely behaves oppositely across the two. A defensible Illinois study is built metro-by-metro against the current supply pipeline, the Chicago-versus-downstate funding channel, the full Certificate of Need regime, and the state's property-tax overlay.

Underwriting an Illinois project? Start with the market read.

Feasibility Study Company prepares independent Illinois feasibility and market studies, built to the standard your lender or agency applies. A methodology briefing walks through the analytical framework, the deliverable composition, and the current Illinois market data for your metro and asset class.

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Sources

Data sources and dates.

Every figure on this page traces to a named authority. Real-estate readings are point-in-time and vendor-dependent; each is attributed at its point of use.

  1. U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2024 Population Estimates (population as of July 1, 2024; released December 2024), via Illinois Policy Institute, The Center Square, and NBC Chicago; state population 12,710,158, up 67,899, with 64 of 102 counties still losing population.
  2. U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024, Chicago–Naperville–Elgin metropolitan statistical area (~9.36–9.41M); July 2023 OMB metropolitan delineation (Wisconsin portion split off).
  3. Yardi Matrix, National Multifamily Report (March 2025), via Multi-Housing News; Chicago rent growth +3.7% YoY, tied second nationally.
  4. CoStar via Matthews Real Estate Investment Services; Marcus & Millichap; MMG Real Estate Advisors; Cross Street (Chicago multifamily vacancy, deliveries, and adaptive-reuse pipeline, Q4 2025).
  5. RentCafe analysis of Yardi Matrix data, self-storage reports (December 2023; July 2025; January 2026); Storage Post and TractIQ, Chicago per-capita supply and street-rate data.
  6. Buildium, 2026 downstate rental-market commentary (Rockford, Peoria, Springfield); Rockford aerospace and logistics employers (Collins Aerospace, Woodward, UPS, Amazon).
  7. CBRE, Chicago Industrial & Logistics MarketView (Q1 2026); availability 8.6%, net asking rent $9.03/sf.
  8. Newmark, Chicago Industrial Market Report (Q1 2026); total vacancy 5.3%, sublease availability declining from the Q4 2024 peak.
  9. Colliers, Savills, Avison Young, and WareCRE, Chicago industrial reports (Q1 2026); WareCRE stabilized vacancy 4.7%, asking $6.57/sf, rent growth ~1.5% YoY.
  10. CenterPoint Properties, CenterPoint Intermodal Center–Joliet/Elwood (~6,400 acres; BNSF and Union Pacific terminals).
  11. CBRE via Crain’s Chicago Business (April 2026); downtown/CBD office vacancy 28.6%, a 15th consecutive quarterly record; The Real Deal citing CBRE.
  12. JLL via Crain’s Chicago Business and The Real Deal (Q1 2026); suburban availability 33.4%, a 21st consecutive record; Newmark CBD figures; Bradford Allen Class A/B vacancy (Q2 2025).
  13. Block Club Chicago (March 2025) and The Real Deal; LaSalle Street Reimagined short list (>1,400 units, ~$249M TIF; 79 W. Monroe, 135 S. LaSalle).
  14. Wirepoints (Mark Glennon) via The Center Square (April 2026); Class B/C office towers trading at “10 or 20 cents on the dollar.”
  15. Metropolitan Pier and Exposition Authority (McCormick Place); STR, a CoStar company (RevPAR/ADR); WTTW and Chicago Sun-Times (March 2026), Tourism Improvement District raising the downtown hotel tax to 19%.
  16. Capitol News Illinois citing the DCEO 2025 Annual Report ($10.7B across 34 data centers); Shaw Local citing Pew Research (May 2026), Illinois fourth nationally in total facilities; Intersect Illinois.
  17. Illinois Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity, Data Center Investment Program (Public Act 101-31); June 5, 2026 directive from Governor Pritzker halting new applications as of July 1, 2026 (DCEO.illinois.gov).
  18. University of Illinois Urbana–Champaign News Bureau (Fall 2025 enrollment 60,848); Illinois State University News (21,994); Rivian, Bloomington–Normal.
  19. U.S. Small Business Administration, Illinois District Office (Chicago) directory (2025); Byline Bank / SBA Illinois 7(a) Lender of the Year awards and FY2024 volume.
  20. SBA 7(a) lender activity via sbalenderdata.com (FY2020–Q1 FY2026); GoSBA analysis of SBA data (FY2025 Illinois 7(a) approvals).
  21. SomerCor and Growth Corp public disclosures (504 CDC activity and coverage); arbitrate competing “largest” claims via data.sba.gov.
  22. USDA Rural Development, Illinois state office, Champaign (2026); Business & Industry, REAP, and Community Facilities programs via 11 field offices.
  23. Illinois Health Facilities and Services Review Board, Certificate of Need program; Illinois Health Facilities Planning Act, 20 ILCS 3960 (77 Ill. Adm. Code 1100–1130); capital thresholds effective July 1, 2025; National Conference of State Legislatures CON survey (2025).
  24. WalletHub 2025 property-tax rankings via Illinois Policy Institute (effective rate 2.07%, second-highest nationally; ~$6,285 median-home bill vs. ~$2,969 national); Tax Foundation (2023–2026).
  25. Illinois Department of Revenue; Tax Foundation (2026); combined corporate income tax 9.5% (7% income tax plus 2.5% Personal Property Replacement Tax).
  26. “Bring Chicago Home” graduated transfer-tax referendum results, March 2024 (defeated 53.2%–46.8%), Associated Press, CBS, and NBC Chicago; 2020 “Fair Tax” constitutional amendment (defeated).
  27. U.S. Small Business Administration, Policy Notice 5000-879058 (issued May 18, 2026), combined 7(a)-plus-504 cap of $10M effective July 4, 2026 (7(a) first); FY2026 manufacturing fee waivers sunsetting September 30, 2026.