Florida Feasibility Studies

Two population series run side by side in Florida, and a study should not mix them. The Census Bureau counts from an estimates base of 21,538,207 on April 1, 2020 and implies a gain of 1,924,311 to July 2025 ². The state's Demographic Estimating Conference works to April 1 of each year and reported 364,710 new residents in the year to April 2025, a rise of 1.58%, then 329,374, or 1.41%, in the year to April 2026 ¹. The Census one-year gain to July 2025 was 196,680, a rate of 0.85% ². The two programs differ in method and date, so a study picks one for its base and uses the other only as a cross-check.

The forward view matters most for a project that leases up over several years. The conference now projects an average of 297,200 new residents a year from 2026 to 2030, about 814 a day ¹, and its new estimate already sits 19,470 below its prior forecast for April 2026, a gap it expects to reach 43,765 by 2030 ¹. University of Florida demographers put total net migration for the 2025 vintage year at 201,191, about 551 a day, against roughly 599,000 in 2022 ⁵. The direction is consistent across all three sources: growth continues, at a pace well below the one many 2022 and 2023 pro formas assumed.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis put Florida personal income at $1,706,305.7 million in calendar 2024, and per capita personal income at $73,006 in calendar 2024 ¹². A study in a retiree county reads trade-area income, not wages alone.

Jobs are growing more slowly than the population. Total nonfarm employment stood at 9,992,600 in August 2025 and rose by 59,000, or 0.6%, over the following twelve months ³. The August 2026 state release, as restated by CareerSource North Central Florida, counts gains in only part of its major industries, so the growth is not broad ¹³. No sector table of job change or statewide employer roster was found, so a study names its market's employers from a dated source. No large announced project was found for 2025 or 2026; the nearest large capital event is the Florida Development Finance Corporation's $2.22 billion of tax-exempt bonds for Brightline passenger rail in 2024 ¹⁴.

The regulation reads 13 CFR 120.160(b): SBA may require professional appraisals, a survey, or a feasibility study ⁵⁴. The program tests applied under SOP 50 10 8.1 with Technical Policy Updates, in force from October 1, 2026, are set out in the SBA 7(a) and 504 practice area ⁵³.

Florida's own SBA record is under capital access above: the North Florida District's FY2025 lending, the South Florida District's FY2024 leaders and SBA's loan-level files for fiscal years 2016 to 2025. Two county office assignments, for Lee and Polk, are under site tests. Two Florida cases test a request against the program: the Lake Wales fuel station under 7(a), and the Cape Coral dry-stack building under 504.

The research did not identify the HUD multifamily office with jurisdiction over Florida or any Florida-specific HUD, Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac volume, so this page states none. What it does document is the state rule that sits underneath much of the senior care pipeline. Florida's Certificate of Need program still covers nursing homes, both new facilities and added beds, hospice programs and freestanding inpatient hospice, and intermediate care facilities for the developmentally disabled, under the state Certificate of Need statute ²⁴. The Agency for Health Care Administration runs competitive batching cycles twice a year for each group ²⁴.

For a Section 232 or agency seniors study, a skilled nursing project needs an awarded certificate before demand matters, and because CON limits new nursing supply, a Florida assisted living project often competes against a skilled nursing base that has grown only through approvals. The trade association for nursing centers credits CON-driven approvals with the new centers added since 2014 and argued in January 2026 for keeping the program ²⁵; a full repeal was proposed in HB 693 in 2026, and the sponsor's amendment struck the deregulation language ¹¹.

Assisted living and memory care are not under CON, and the research found no current source for their licensing categories or thresholds, so the study confirms license type and staffing with the Agency. The Florida assisted living and memory care case works a new community through a bank construction loan and a Section 232 takeout. For apartments, the Florida multifamily case tests a market-rate community against a conventional construction loan and an agency permanent loan. See the conventional and institutional practice area.

Health care is where Florida's state rules bite hardest. A new nursing home, added nursing beds, a hospice program or an intermediate care facility needs a Certificate of Need from the Agency for Health Care Administration, awarded in competitive batching cycles ²⁴. The 2026 session came close to ending that: HB 693 proposed full repeal, and the deregulation language was removed by the sponsor's own amendment in committee ¹¹. CON stays a gate: a skilled nursing or hospice study names the cycle, service area and application status.

Full liquor licenses in Florida are quota licenses, released through an annual drawing ²⁷, and a new quota license carries an issuance fee of $10,750; the annual fee for a 4COP license in counties over 100,000 population is $1,820 ²⁶. Restaurants that meet a seating, floor-area and food-revenue test can hold a non-quota 4COP-SFS license instead, and beer and wine licenses are not quota-limited ²⁶.

Child care is licensed by the Department of Children and Families once a provider cares for more unrelated children than the statute's home threshold ²⁸. Rule 65C-22 then sets staff-to-child ratios that loosen with age and requires a credentialed staff member, working a minimum number of hours each week, for each block of enrolled children ²⁹. Those rules set the staffing budget, so a child care study should derive its payroll from the licensed capacity by age group rather than from a national cost ratio.

Fuel retail in Florida has a state backstop. The Inland Protection Trust Fund waived deductibles and copayments and did not enforce cost caps for cleanup in FY2025-26 under s. 376.3071(7)(i) ³⁰. The research could not confirm whether HB 5701 of the 2026 extended session continued that waiver, so a gas station study should confirm the program's terms on the date it prices environmental risk, and should still carry a Phase I and private pollution coverage.

Short-term rentals sit under state preemption: a local ordinance adopted before June 1, 2011 survives, and newer local restrictions are limited ³¹. The 2026 attempt to rewrite the framework, SB 658, died in the House on March 13, 2026 ³¹. A lodging study reads the local ordinance's adoption date before relying on it. Labor cost has a new statewide floor of its own: HB 433 bars local living wage requirements above the state minimum on contracts entered after September 30, 2026 ³².

The research behind this page found no dated Florida source for car wash water rules or RV park licensing; our RV park and car wash pages cover those classes.

Hurricanes dominate the Florida record. FEMA data compiled by USAFacts show hurricanes behind a large share of the state's federal disaster declarations from 2021 to 2025, within a long history of declarations reaching back to 1980 ⁴⁰. The same compilation records no FEMA declarations at all in Florida in calendar 2025 ⁴⁰, which is the kind of quiet year that can make a recent occupancy or revenue history look stronger than the long-run risk allows.

The recovery from Hurricane Milton is still measurable. By August 2026 FEMA had approved $887,951,050 through its Individuals and Households Program on 301,674 approved Individual Assistance applications, and had obligated $54,003,439 of Hazard Mitigation Grant Program funds ³⁶. Rebuilding money that lifted contractor, hotel and storage demand in the affected counties will not recur.

In November 2025 SBA issued an administrative disaster declaration, FL-20030, for severe storms and flooding of October 26, with Brevard as the primary county and Indian River, Orange, Osceola, Seminole and Volusia contiguous ³⁷. In April 2026 FEMA approved two fire management assistance declarations, for the Railroad Complex Fire and the Cow Creek Fire ³⁸. On October 9, 2026 a federal emergency declaration followed Hurricane Isaias, covering counties across the Panhandle and the Big Bend, among them Escambia, Santa Rosa, Leon, Gadsden, Jefferson, Wakulla, Gilchrist and Levy ³⁹. No major disaster declaration had been published by the research date, so studies there should be dated after the declarations settle.

The research did not find the FEMA National Risk Index ranking of hazard types for Florida, or statewide metrics for wind, flood, wildfire or seismic exposure. A study reads the site's own flood panel, surge zone and declaration history.

The events group into demand (the forecast cut), rules (CON kept, STR preemption kept, living wage preemption, new impact fees) and hazard (a quiet 2025, then April fires and Isaias).

Much of what a lender asks about a Florida site is answered by the county it sits in, so the study names the county first and reads each record below against it.

Which SBA office

Florida is split between the North Florida and South Florida districts, and the southern district assigns counties to offices that are not always the closest city: Lee County answers to the Miami office and Polk County to the Tampa-area office ²⁰. A study states the district and office for the subject's county, because the district record it cites must be the one covering the site.

The county's storm record

Declarations name counties, not regions. FL-20030 named Brevard and its contiguous counties in November 2025 ³⁷; the October 2026 Isaias emergency declaration reached across the Panhandle and the Big Bend yet left Alachua out ³⁹. The study cites each declaration covering the subject's county by number and date, and says so when one is still pending on its own date.

Wind and flood cover

This page's record holds no statewide insurance basis, and a calendar 2025 with no FEMA declarations at all ⁴⁰. A quiet year is not a lower premium. Wind and flood are priced separately from a dated quote for the subject building, beside the parcel's effective flood panel and zone.

County charges

Building and lodging charges move county by county: Marion County added a fire and EMS impact fee from October 1, 2025 ³³, and Sarasota County's hotel tax rate reads differently in EDR's 2026 table and the Department of Revenue's earlier chart ⁵⁵⁵⁶. The fee comes from the county in writing and the tourist development tax from the county tax collector, each dated.

Letters for the parcel

The county or city puts three things in writing for the parcel, each dated: that the zoning district allows the use, the impact or mobility fee estimate, and the utility's will-serve or capacity letter. The USDA, Opportunity Zone and HUBZone results are printed for the address with the date of the lookup, and the FDOT count used is the one for the road the driveway opens onto. A letter no office will issue by the study date is listed for the lender as open.

The Cape Coral-Fort Myers metro is Lee County, which the Census Bureau counted at 760,827 residents on its April 1, 2020 estimates base ⁴¹. A study pairs it with the Vintage 2025 figure from the same table. The labor data need equal care. FloridaCommerce reports 544,700 nonfarm jobs in August 2026 for the CareerSource Southwest Florida region ⁴², but that region spans several metros, so it describes the wider Southwest Florida economy rather than Lee County alone.

Self-storage is where the evidence is strongest and the risk most visible. StorageCafe counts 924,800 square feet of new self-storage space in the Cape Coral-Fort Myers metro in 2025 ⁴³, and Multi-Housing News, citing Yardi Matrix data, gives the combined Sarasota and Cape Coral market inventory as 22.8 million square feet ⁴³. A new self-storage or RV and boat storage facility here enters a market that has just absorbed a wave of deliveries, so the study must build a facility-by-facility census with posted rates and lease-up status, and test the loan at flat or falling street rates.

Lee County's own fees and short-term rental rules were not captured in the research, so a lender sees the storage wave without the local context around it. For SBA purposes Lee County sits with the Miami office of the South Florida District ²⁰, on the far side of the peninsula. One published case names a place in this market: the Cape Coral dry-stack building, whose page sets it in Cape Coral, Lee County, and finds the boats plentiful and the posted rack rates too low for a new hurricane-rated building.

Polk County grew from 725,042 residents on April 1, 2020 to 874,790 on July 1, 2025 ⁶, and it permitted 8,236 housing units in 2025 ⁶. New rooftops support everyday uses where the study shows its own trade area filling in.

The jobs record needs reconciling. The BLS Southeast Information Office shows Lakeland-Winter Haven nonfarm employment of 280.6 thousand in July 2026, a preliminary figure ⁴⁶, while FloridaCommerce reports 283,900 for the CareerSource Polk region in May 2026 ⁴⁷. The two series differ in month and in method, so a study cites one as its base and explains the other rather than averaging them.

Logistics is the economic story. Lakeland took about 603,000 square feet of Tampa Bay industrial leasing in the second quarter of 2026, the largest share in the region, according to a secondary report citing Cushman & Wakefield ⁴⁸. No Lakeland industrial vacancy was found, so a warehouse, truck service or travel center study must pull current vacancy and construction from a broker report and date it.

Capital is close at hand. SouthState Bank, based in Winter Haven, made 229 loans under SBA 7(a) in FY2025 according to a broker's ranking ⁴⁹. Polk County is served by the Tampa-area office of the SBA South Florida District ²⁰. One published case names a Lakeland-Winter Haven location: the Lake Wales gas station and convenience store, whose page places it in Lake Wales, Polk County, where the traffic is ample but national chains already own the corridor's share.

Marion County grew from 375,892 residents on April 1, 2020 to 442,660 on July 1, 2025 ⁸. The county is responding with fees: Ordinance 25-17 created a fire and EMS impact fee, adopted on May 23, 2025 and effective October 1, 2025 ³³. Any ground-up project in Marion County should carry the current fee schedule in its sources and uses, from a written county estimate dated close to closing.

Beyond population and that fee, the record is thin: no self-storage reading for the Ocala geography even though neighbouring Gainesville has one. An equestrian or tourism-linked use should source its event calendar and visitor counts from the venues themselves. The April 2026 fire declarations elsewhere in the state are a reminder that wildfire belongs in an inland hazard section ³⁸.

Escambia County grew from 321,905 residents on April 1, 2020 to 333,834 on July 1, 2025 ⁹, a slower pace than the state's interior counties, while the Pensacola metropolitan area, which adds Santa Rosa County, held 544,949 residents in July 2025 by a secondary tabulation ⁴⁵. A study should read Santa Rosa County's own figures as well, because the metro is larger than Escambia and its two counties do not grow alike.

The Alabama line runs along the county's western edge, and customers, workers and competitors cross it daily. A Pensacola trade area for retail, fuel, storage or medical uses can include Baldwin County, Alabama, whose data come from a different state's agencies; our Alabama page covers that side. Escambia and Santa Rosa were both named in the October 2026 Hurricane Isaias emergency declaration ³⁹.

Two case pages name their towns. In Lee County, the Cape Coral dry-stack boat storage case tests a new rack building against SBA 504 and concludes that it is not feasible as a ground-up build at the rack rates Southwest Florida operators post: the fleet is large enough, but rate and the program's eligibility rules for marinas bind first. In Polk County, the Lake Wales gas station and convenience store, on US 27 near the SR 60 interchange, shows a request that fails the 7(a) coverage test: traffic is ample, but national chains already hold the corridor's share, and the model shows how much smaller a loan the corridor can carry.

The other five pages place their sites by region or setting and name no town or county. The limited-service hotel case, set on a Florida leisure and interstate corridor, sizes a new flagged hotel under SBA 504 from a competitive-set penetration analysis. The multifamily case, set in an outer suburb of a Central Florida metro, works out lease-up and effective rent for a market-rate community against a conventional construction loan and an agency takeout. The RV and boat storage case, in a boating and RV submarket on Florida's Gulf-access coast, works a covered and canopy yard through a 504 structure, turning installed-fleet demand into an occupancy schedule a lender and its CDC can test. The assisted living and memory care case, in a retiree submarket on Florida's Gulf coast, builds age-qualified demand and carries it through a bank construction loan to a Section 232 takeout. The urgent care case, in a suburban submarket of a major Florida metro, values a new freestanding clinic on payer mix and net collected revenue rather than footfall, under 7(a).

For market evidence beyond the cases, each metro page carries its own: the Tampa page, two apartment occupancy readings and a November 2025 hotel reading; the Orlando page, hotel occupancy and rate from the county comptroller's tourist tax report; the Jacksonville page, storage, industrial and retail readings; and the Miami page, a county-by-county apartment pipeline and industrial rents.