Michigan Feasibility Studies

For Michigan borrowers in the seasoned cohorts of FY2011 to FY2020, SBA charged off 4.9% of 7(a) loans by count and 1.0% of 504 loans ⁹⁷. The file does not give reasons. It does place a 7(a) request in the book with the higher loss rate, and in such a request the projections, and the study under them, carry most of the argument. Over approvals dated October 2015 to September 2025, with later cancellations struck, the same file holds 20,775 Michigan 7(a) loans and 1,496 504 loans ⁹⁷.

The table's names are worth more than its numbers. Both aggregator pages are undated: one gives no fiscal or calendar basis for its 2025 rows, the other runs from FY2021 to FY2026, and neither matches the one lender figure tied to a stated fiscal year: Huntington's own release, which credits the bank with 1,385 Michigan 7(a) loans for $191,740,500 in FY2024 and the next-largest lender with 85 loans for $55,340,300 ⁸. None of the three adds up into market shares; a study that needs a share should compute one from SBA's FY2025 year-end lender reports on data.sba.gov and print the period beside it. District totals are secondhand as well: lenders quoting SBA put the district's FY2025 approvals at 2,867 loans worth $1.3 billion across all programs ⁵⁶, against 2,921 loans in FY2024 ⁷, and no SBA table for either year was retrieved.

What the Michigan Strategic Fund adds

SSBCI, the federal credit initiative for small businesses, approved Michigan for up to $236,990,950 in its second funding round ¹⁵, and roughly $72 million, the first tranche, arrived in August 2022 ¹⁶. Of the allocation, $75 million went to the Small Business Venture Capital Program ¹⁶, and in June 2025 up to $9.8 million of SSBCI venture capital was committed to the New Community Transformation Fund II ¹⁹. Lending support runs through four Michigan Strategic Fund programs that MEDC administers: the Capital Access Program, the Collateral Support Program, the Loan Participation Program and the Loan Guarantee Program ¹⁷¹⁸.

Two of them reach into a loan file directly. Under the Capital Access Program the lender and borrower pay a premium into a pooled reserve, which the Michigan Strategic Fund matches at 2% to 7% of the enrolled loan ¹⁷. Under the Collateral Support Program the state can pledge cash collateral covering as much as 49.9% of a loan ¹⁸, enough to close a collateral shortfall on a project built on heavy equipment or leasehold improvements. For larger loans outside SSBCI, MSF support reaches up to $20 million ¹⁸. Where either program is in the structure, the state's share shows in sources and uses as an enhancement, while the coverage ratio is computed on every dollar the borrower repays, the supported share included.

For a rural Michigan project too large or too specialized for SBA (a processing plant, a resort lodge, a marina, a grocery store in a county seat), the Business and Industry guarantee offers the longer term. Both fees belong in the uses of funds, and the long amortization changes the coverage arithmetic, so the study should build the B&I structure itself rather than borrow SBA's. The state office sits in East Lansing ¹⁴. No FY2025 B&I obligation total for Michigan turned up, and a USDA release citing a total Michigan investment gave no fiscal year; a lender who wants to know how often the program closes here should ask the state office for its obligation report.

USDA writes its own study standard into the program rule, with five components that differ from an SBA market read; a research note applies all five to a single rural project, the deadline calendar tracks fiscal-year timing, and the deliverable itself is laid out on our USDA practice page. Rural eligibility turns on the site's place and population, so a Michigan study should print the eligibility lookup for its address instead of assuming that a northern location qualifies. SBA's own rural test is county-level, and the FY2027 fee notice waives the upfront fee for rural businesses on 7(a) loans up to $700,000 ²², so a northern study records its county's result on that test too.

Health care: certificates above a capital threshold

Under the Certificate of Need program run by MDHHS, a covered capital expenditure in a clinical service area triggers review above $4,272,500, effective January 1, 2026 ²³, across 14 clinical service categories ²⁴. The standards moved in 2025 and 2026: psychiatric bed standards reached final action on September 18, 2025, CT and long-term-care bed standards went to public hearing on April 30, 2026, and surgical services were under workgroup review in 2026 ²⁵. For a medical office or surgery center, the program caps competing supply and adds a permit step, so a study should state whether the project needs a certificate, cite the standard in force on its filing date and show the opening date with and without approval.

Senior housing: no assisted living license, three capacity bands

Michigan has no assisted living license: a building that provides personal care needs an Adult Foster Care or Home for the Aged license, and memory care carries none of its own ²⁸²⁶. The license follows capacity: an adult foster care small group home holds 12 or fewer residents, a large group home 13 to 20, and a Home for the Aged 21 or more ²⁶. Since February 11, 2018, a Home for the Aged may serve residents from age 55, down from 60 ²⁷. The bands come from a 2015 federal compendium, and the research did not re-confirm that the current rule still sets them, so the study should confirm them with LARA. The band decides the competitive set: a memory care or assisted living building competes with licensed homes in its own band, and the lower age threshold widens the pool to residents in their late fifties.

Childcare: new home rules and center ratios

MiLEAP's new rule set for family and group child care homes, dated May 26, 2026, caps a family home at 6 unrelated children, or 7 on approval, and a group home at 12, or 14 on approval ²⁹. Draft rules circulated in 2025 set minimum child-use space at 400 sq ft for a family home and 600 sq ft for a group home ³¹. Center rules were updated on May 7, 2025, and a center must submit a floor plan of all child-use areas ³⁰.

Staffing in a childcare center steps down sharply from the infant room to the school-age room, so two Michigan centers with the same enrollment can carry very different payrolls. Revenue and staff belong in the study room by room, with the ratios checked against the MiLEAP rule set (the table is a secondary restatement) and the group-size conflict resolved. The 2023 County Business Patterns count 2,090 childcare establishments in Michigan ⁹⁸, a count of employer businesses that leaves out most licensed homes; a competitive census needs the state licensing list.

Restaurants and bars: a quota state with priced licenses

Michigan allots on-premises liquor licenses by population, at 1 per 1,500 residents, and specially designated distributor licenses at 1 per 3,000 ³²³³. The quota is recalculated after each census, and an escrowed license can be transferred within its county ³³. The state fee for a Class C license is $600 a year, but the license itself is bought in a transfer market; a secondary 2026 guide to Michigan licensing, writing statewide, puts prices at about $25,000 in rural areas and $150,000+ in metro Detroit, Grand Rapids and Ann Arbor ³⁴. In 1999 the legislature's analysts reported average prices of $40,000 to $50,000, with some up to $300,000 ³². Because the price moves with county and year, a restaurant study's uses should carry it as a dated broker quote.

Fuel: the tank fund and its fee

Michigan charges an environmental fee of 7/8 cent per gallon on refined petroleum, and the Refined Petroleum Fund took in $31,649,932 in FY2024 ³⁵. The Michigan Underground Storage Tank Authority, inside EGLE, runs a cleanup fund for releases discovered after December 30, 2014; its predecessor was declared insolvent in 1995 ³⁵. A study for a fuel and convenience site should state whether a known release predates the fund's coverage.

Wages: two steps in two years

The tipped wage was held at 38% of the minimum during 2025 ³⁷ and climbs as a share each January. For a labor-heavy business the January 2027 step lands in the first or second projection year, so a study should carry the scheduled wages year by year, show the coverage test with them, and say how prices are assumed to follow.

Short-term rentals and lodging tax

An undated article from a policy outlet reports that short-term rental stays of 30 days or less fall under the state's 6% use tax on accommodations ³⁸. No statewide law overrides local short-term rental ordinances or creates a registry, so local rules govern (see Traverse City below); House bills that would let voters approve a local excise tax were introduced in late October 2025, as proposals rather than law ³⁹. No typical combined hotel tax rate for Michigan was found, so a hotel study should get its municipality's rate and any convention or tourism assessment from the local authority.

The hazard event a 2026 reviewer will remember is the ice storm of March 28 to 30, 2025. The federal declaration, DR-4880, came on July 22, 2025, and designated 13 counties for Public Assistance ⁴⁹: Alcona, Alpena, Antrim, Charlevoix, Cheboygan, Crawford, Emmet, Kalkaska, Mackinac, Montmorency, Oscoda, Otsego and Presque Isle, with the Little Traverse Bay Bands of Odawa Indians. In March 2026 the declaration was widened to Category F, which covers public utilities including nonprofit electric cooperatives ⁵⁰. A hotel, campground, marina or senior care study in those counties should ask how the operator kept running through the outage, whether the site has backup power, and what the business interruption cover pays.

USDA designated 4 Michigan counties as natural disaster areas in 2025 for drought, heat and frost or freeze; the research did not record which counties ⁵¹. For an agricultural processor or a farm-supply business, that designation can affect suppliers and emergency credit, so the county list belongs in the study, taken from the Farm Service Agency notice itself.

For a lakeshore or riverside site the study starts from the parcel: the flood panel that covers it and an insurer's premium quote for the building. Nothing statewide in the research can stand in for either, since past the ice storm and the drought list it holds no federal declaration for 2025 or 2026 and no Michigan hazard score, neither a National Risk Index ranking nor a flood, wind or seismic exposure measure.

• February 21, 2025 and January 1, 2026: two minimum wage steps, with a third scheduled for January 1, 2027 ³⁷³⁶.
• March 28 to 30, 2025: the northern ice storm; declared DR-4880 on July 22, 2025, with utilities added in March 2026 ⁴⁹⁵⁰.
• April 2, 2025: the extension of the state prevailing wage act took effect ⁴⁸.
• May 7, 2025: revised child care center rules took effect; the new home rule set followed, dated May 26, 2026 ³⁰²⁹.
• October 30, 2025: the Stargate Michigan data center was announced; the MPSC conditionally approved its power contracts on December 18, 2025, and the Attorney General's appeal followed on April 17, 2026 ⁶⁶⁴⁶⁴⁵.
• Late October 2025: House bills proposing a local short-term rental excise tax were introduced ³⁹.
• December 2025: Green Charter Township adopted a 1 year moratorium on all data center development ⁵³.
• January 1, 2026: the Certificate of Need capital threshold reset ²³.
• January 27, 2026: the Vintage 2025 population estimates showed positive domestic migration and falling international arrivals ¹.
• August 18, 2026: the LG Energy Solution battery plant in Delta Township opened without GM ⁷⁴.
• August 2026: statewide payrolls fell for the first time in six months ³.
• October 1, 2026: applications SBA receives from this date fall under SOP 50 10 8.1 ²¹.

The University of Michigan anchors the county; a July 2022 regional list from the Detroit Regional Chamber credits it with 35,620 full-time staff in Southeast Michigan ⁶⁵. Michigan Medicine's own headcount and the next four employers do not appear in the research, so current enrollment and employment should come from the university itself.

What evidence there is centers on Stargate Michigan, the data center campus of Related Digital, Oracle and OpenAI in Saline Township. Its full build-out load is 1,383 MW ⁶⁶⁴⁵, on a site of 250 acres ⁶⁷. The campus has 3 buildings of 550,000 sq ft each, the first nearly complete in June 2026 ⁶⁹. Its cost is reported at least two ways, $16 billion by one outlet ⁶⁷ and about $10 billion by another, which also puts bond financing at $14 billion ⁶⁹; the developer reported >$5 billion already invested in construction by June 1, 2026 ⁶⁸. The township board first voted against the rezoning, and the project went ahead after a lawsuit settlement ⁶⁷.

The job table is the developer's own, issued at a construction celebration on June 1, 2026, and its county-wide line is an estimate rather than a payroll count ⁶⁸. Timing matters more than size: the build was already well along by June 2026, so a lodging or apartment project that opens a year or two out may arrive as construction winds down and should be underwritten on the permanent onsite posts. The DTE contract runs 19 years with a minimum demand charge of 80% ⁴⁵⁴⁶, terms written to shield other ratepayers, and the Attorney General's challenge to its approval has no reported outcome in the research ⁴⁵.

The Michigan Strategic Fund approved support in September 2026 for an Ann Arbor mixed-use development with anticipated investment of >$651 million, about 1,069 housing units and about 2.2 million sq ft of floor area ⁷⁰. In May 2026 it approved a Transformational Brownfield Plan for an affordable project at 350 S. Fifth Ave. with 330 units, 6,500+ sq ft of commercial space and $209.4 million of capital investment ⁷¹. These are approvals, not delivered supply; an apartment study in the county should place both in its pipeline with a delivery date and an absorption share.

Beneath the projects, the county is shrinking slightly. Washtenaw's 370,214 residents on July 1, 2025 compare with 372,265 in April 2020, and Ann Arbor's 122,233 with 123,899 ⁷², even as 1,088 housing units were permitted countywide in 2025 ⁷³. Employed residents, on the household survey, numbered 185,100 in August 2026 against 197,800 in August 2025, with unemployment at 4.2% ⁴. With no survey of Washtenaw apartments, rooms or warehouses found, the two approvals are the only quantified supply, and a lease-up forecast that leans on them leans on paper.

Pfizer's Portage campus, its largest manufacturing site worldwide, employed about 3,000 employees and contractors in December 2022 ⁸⁰. That is the only employer figure the research holds for Kalamazoo, and it is nearly four years old; the status of the expansion announced that year was not found. A study that relies on the campus for demand, whether for apartments, extended-stay rooms or services in Portage, should obtain a current headcount and the expansion's status.

The county grows while the city does not. Between April 2020 and July 1, 2025 Kalamazoo County went from 261,669 to 263,795 residents, with 487 housing units permitted in 2025 ⁸¹, while the city of Kalamazoo slipped from 73,544 to 72,683 ⁸². A downtown study therefore cannot borrow the county's growth, and a suburban study should show that its own trade area, not the county, is adding households.

Kalamazoo's labor readings lean soft: employed residents were down -6.9% from August 2025 to August 2026, unemployment stood at 4.5%, and the state's release notes payrolls falling from July to August ⁴. A Portage case that carries the campus at its 2022 size carries an unmeasured risk, so interviews with the employer should come before any competitor count.

The Traverse City metro had the lowest unemployment of Michigan's 18 regions in August 2026, at 3.7% ⁴, and the third-fastest payroll growth of any Michigan metro, +0.9% over the year ³. Grand Traverse, the core county, had 96,729 residents on July 1, 2025; 475 housing units were permitted there in 2025 ⁸⁸. A labor market that tight is a constraint as much as a strength: before a hotel, restaurant or senior care study here counts guests, it has to say who will work the July shifts and at what wage.

Local ordinances decide how much rental supply a hotel competes with. In East Bay Township, a short-term rental needs a minimum stay of 7 nights and must sit 1,000 ft from the next one ⁸⁹. The city of Traverse City licenses whole-home vacation rentals for stays under 30 days only in non-residential districts, and a tourist home rental in a residential zone requires the owner to be present ⁸⁹. Traverse City Tourism has historically levied a 5% lodging assessment on properties with 10+ units, according to a low-confidence secondary source ⁹⁰. Because each township and the city write their own rules, a lodging study should map the rule that governs every rental in its competitive set.

Four of the ten counties (Antrim, Charlevoix, Emmet and Kalkaska) were designated for Public Assistance after the March 2025 ice storm ⁴⁹, so an operator there has a recent outage to explain. Colliers lists Northwest Michigan among its strongest multifamily submarkets but publishes no figures for it ⁶¹, so an apartment study can cite that ranking as context only.

A Michigan trade area near the state line can reach into Ohio, Indiana or Wisconsin. Michigan's liquor quota, its minimum wage schedule and its Certificate of Need program stop at the line, so a border study should price the Michigan side under Michigan rules and count competitors on the other side under theirs.