Alabama · Market Intelligence
Alabama Feasibility Studies
In October 2026 FEMA approved an emergency declaration for Hurricane Isaias covering Baldwin, Escambia and Mobile counties and the Poarch Band of Creek Indians 5. In the latest Census estimates Mobile County lost residents and Baldwin County gained; in the Birmingham metro Jefferson County declined and Shelby and St. Clair counties grew 2. The state total stood at 5,193,088 on July 1, 2025 1.
Migration drives Alabama's uneven growth by CBER's reading, and the international count is unsettled.
PARCA placed Alabama 15th among the states for numeric population growth in 2024 to 2025 and 20th for percentage growth; it placed the state 11th for its domestic migration rate and 42nd for its international migration rate 10.
Deaths outnumbered births statewide and in all but 17 of the 67 counties in 2025 2, and CBER at the University of Alabama names migration the primary driver of the state's uneven growth 9. The Census Bureau counted Alabama's net domestic migration at 23,358 for July 2024 to June 2025, above Florida's 73. The international reading is unsettled. CBER counts 8,946 net international migrants in 2024 to 2025 against 15,763 the year before 9. PARCA, reading the same Census vintage, describes a drop of 13,156 in international migration from 2024 and a fall of 1,595 in net domestic migration 10. The research leaves the two unreconciled.
The Redstone Arsenal and Eli Lilly records for Huntsville sit on its market page.
Alabama added nonfarm jobs on both the adjusted and the unadjusted series in the year to August 2026.
The Census Bureau, CBER and PARCA give the 2024 to 2025 migration figures, and Commerce counts the projects announced in 2025.
| Indicator | Figure | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resident population | 5,193,088 | July 1, 2025 (Vintage 2025) | 1 |
| Population base | 5,025,437 | April 1, 2020 | 1 |
| Net international migration (CBER) | 8,946; 15,763 a year earlier | 2024 to 2025; 2023 to 2024 | 9 |
| Change in net international migration (PARCA) | -13,156 against 2024 | 2024 to 2025 | 10 |
| Net domestic migration (Census Bureau) | 23,358 | July 2024 to June 2025 | 73 |
| Change in net domestic migration (PARCA) | -1,595 | 2024 to 2025 | 10 |
| Total nonfarm jobs, seasonally adjusted | 2,197.3 thousand to 2,221.0 thousand (+23,700) | August 2025 to August 2026, preliminary | 6 |
| Private payrolls, seasonally adjusted | +18,100 | August 2025 to August 2026 | 19 |
| Total nonfarm jobs, not seasonally adjusted | 2,194.1 thousand to 2,216.2 thousand (+1.01%) | August 2025 to August 2026, preliminary | 20 |
| Private jobs, not seasonally adjusted | 1,773.1 thousand to 1,790.5 thousand | August 2025 to August 2026, preliminary | 20 |
| Leisure and hospitality jobs | +10,600 | July 2025 to July 2026 | 21 |
| Jobs tied to announced new and expanding projects | 9,388 | Calendar 2025 | 7 |
| Jobs tied to foreign direct investment announcements | 2,274 | Calendar 2025 | 22 |
| Jobs tied to announcements in rural targeted counties (secondary) | 2,011 | Calendar 2025 | 23 |
The migration rows in the table come from three readings of the same Census vintage: the Census Bureau's own count of net domestic migration 73, CBER's count of net international migration 9 and PARCA's changes from the year before 10.
On the seasonally adjusted series the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows total nonfarm employment rising from 2,197.3 thousand to 2,221.0 thousand in the twelve months to August 2026, a gain of 23,700 6, with private payrolls up 18,100 by the Joint Economic Committee's reading 19. The state's own newsletter, on the unadjusted series, shows 2,194.1 thousand rising to 2,216.2 thousand, or 1.01% 20, and private jobs moving from 1,773.1 thousand to 1,790.5 thousand 20. Both are preliminary. By sector, the Department of Workforce reported leisure and hospitality up 10,600 in the year to July 2026 21. In the same release private education and health services reached a record 269,000 jobs, up 6,400, and government added 5,400 21.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis put Alabama's per capita personal income, total personal income spread across all residents rather than a household figure, at $57,311 in calendar 2024 24; the household measure is the 2020 to 2024 five-year American Community Survey estimate of median household income, $63,999 25.
Commerce's count of 2025 announcements
The Department of Commerce described 2025 as a record year for announced investment and counted 234 new and expanding projects, with 9,388 jobs and a record $14.6 billion of capital investment tied to them 7; its report for 2024 had counted 224 projects, more than 8,500 jobs and more than $7 billion 80. The Governor's office attributed 2,274 of the year's announced jobs and $3.6 billion of its announced investment to foreign direct investment 22, and a television station's summary of the same report counted 2,011 jobs in rural targeted counties 23. Among the year's announcements outside the eight markets, Georgia-Pacific's $800 million pulp mill modernization is in Monroe County 22. These are announcements, counted when a company commits. The research dates the construction schedule of the Eli Lilly plant in Limestone County, and our Huntsville page sets that schedule out.
Alabama SBA loans for fiscal 2016 to 2025, counted from the agency's own files.
The agency's file comes first, then a ranking site's calendar 2025 lenders and a personal finance site's FY2024 count, then the state's SSBCI round.
| Measure | Figure | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama 7(a) loans, ranking site (secondary) | 626 loans, $352.7 million | Calendar 2025 | 16 |
| Alabama 7(a) dollars, ranking site's alternate total (secondary) | $301.8 million across 509 businesses | Calendar 2025 | 16 |
| Alabama 7(a) and 504 combined (secondary) | 562 loans; $361.1 million | FY2024 | 17 |
| Alabama 7(a) dollars, Newtek Bank, second on the ranking (secondary) | $26.3 million | Calendar 2025 | 16 |
| Alabama 7(a) dollars, GBank, fifth on the ranking (secondary) | $14.3 million | Calendar 2025 | 16 |
| Southern Development Council, SBA 504 lending (secondary) | 24 loans; $25.0 million | FY2025 | 74 |
| State Small Business Credit Initiative allocation, second round | Up to $97.9 million | Approved 2024; launched June 2024 | 26 |
| State Small Business Credit Initiative allocation, first round | $31,301,498 | 2011 | 27 |
SBA's own loan-level file counts 3,568 loans for Alabama projects approved in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, net of cancellations, under 7(a), and 504 debentures of $485.0 million approved in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, net of cancellations 28. For a single year of debentures, sbaloanindex.com credits Southern Development Council with 24 loans for $25.0 million in FY2025 74; the cumulative Birmingham metro totals for it, Birmingham Citywide and Florida Business Development Corp. sit in the Birmingham section.
GoSBA Loans counts 101 lenders making Alabama 7(a) loans in calendar 2025 and ranks them by dollars: Live Oak Banking Co. first, Newtek Bank second at $26.3 million and GBank fifth at $14.3 million on 5 loans 16. Its page prints two Alabama totals for 2025 that do not match, and the table carries both 16. LendingTree, a personal finance site, combines 7(a) and 504 at 562 loans and $361.1 million for FY2024 17.
Innovate Alabama's five programs
Innovate Alabama administers Alabama's State Small Business Credit Initiative money through five programs. Collateral support, at about $26.9 million, is the largest of them, and beside the credit programs sit a co-investment program of $16 million and a fund of funds of $9 million for venture capital 26. Treasury approved up to $97.9 million for Alabama in this round, which launched in June 2024 26. Under the current round's loan participation program, the state's share is at most 30% of a loan, with exceptions decided case by case 84. In the 2011 round, ADECA received $31,301,498 for the state's capital access, loan guarantee and loan participation programs 27.
Site readiness has separate state money. In May 2026 the Governor announced more than $20 million of Growing Alabama funding for 10 sites, with $29 million available for the year 82.
SBA serves Alabama from its district office in Birmingham.
SBA's Alabama District Office is in Birmingham 72. The program tests in SBA's current SOP 71 are on our SBA 7(a) and 504 practice page, and the clause that lets the agency ask for a study is 13 CFR 120.160(b): SBA may require professional appraisals, a survey, or a feasibility study 70.
HUD's FY2026 Fair Market Rents for four Alabama metros, as BNBCalc relays them.
A relay of HUD's FY2026 tables by BNBCalc gives the two-bedroom Fair Market Rent as $1,520 in Birmingham, $1,440 in Mobile, $1,020 in Tuscaloosa and $900 in Montgomery 29. Our Huntsville page carries that market's figure.
In Alabama, memory care answers to Public Health and, for converted beds, to SHPDA.
Then SHPDA's wider reach, ADEM's tank fund and its contractors, DHR's child care files and a secondary alcohol guide.
| Asset class | Alabama rule | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Memory care | Separate specialty care (SCALF) license for residents with dementia-level impairment | Current | 15 |
| Assisted living | Family, group and congregate categories set by resident count | Compendium; rules of 2019 | 31 |
| Assisted living, small homes | No new license below a minimum bed count | Rules effective April 6, 2019 | 32 |
| Health care, general | Certificate of Need from SHPDA required for new institutional health services under the state Certificate of Need statute | 2025 Code | 13 |
| Health care, recent reviews | Dialysis, surgery centers, inpatient hospice and rehabilitation, substance use treatment and assisted living bed conversions on Review Board agendas | FY2025 to FY2026 | 30 |
| Health care, rules | Revised CON program rules in force | December 15, 2025 | 4 |
| Ambulatory surgery centers | Moratorium on processing multi-specialty applications reported | December 3, 2025 | 14 |
| Fuel storage tanks | State trust fund reimburses eligible assessment and cleanup | Current | 37 |
| Fuel storage tank contractors | Revised per diem rates; new contractor qualification round closed December 31, 2025 | Effective April 1, 2025 | 38 |
| Child care centers | A permit period before the full license | Posted November 2025 | 33 |
| Child care homes and centers (secondary) | Family homes, group homes and centers classed by number of children; licenses renewed on a fixed term | 2026 | 34 |
| Family day care homes | Proposed revised standards posted | April 2026 | 35 |
| Alcohol (secondary) | No quota for most license types | 2026 | 36 |
A memory care building in Alabama answers to Public Health, which requires a separate specialty care license, issued in group and congregate classes, to serve residents with dementia-level impairment 15, and beds converted from ordinary assisted living to specialty care have come before SHPDA's Certificate of Need Review Board on its recent agendas 30. The assisted living license beneath it is divided into family, group and congregate categories by resident count, from family homes of 2 to 3 residents to congregate facilities of 17 or more 31, and no new license is issued for a facility of fewer than three beds 32.
SHPDA's reach goes well beyond memory care. New institutional health services need a Certificate of Need from the agency 13, and the same recent agendas carried dialysis, ambulatory surgery, inpatient hospice and rehabilitation, a children's hospital relocation and substance use treatment 30. The statute's reach takes in nursing home beds, and the State Health Plan carries its own bed-need methods for inpatient psychiatric, inpatient rehabilitation and alcohol and drug treatment beds 13. The agency's revised program rules took effect on December 15, 2025 4. Earlier that month, press coverage of a Hoover health care project reported a moratorium on processing multi-specialty surgery center applications 14.
For fuel retail the state still backs cleanup. ADEM's trust fund reimburses eligible assessment and cleanup of gas station tank releases 37, it revised its contractor per diem rates from April 1, 2025, and it closed a new contractor qualification round at the end of 2025 38.
The Department of Human Resources posts a permit stage before a child care center receives its full license, and its application asks for background clearances and the director's qualifications 33; a secondary guide classes family homes at up to 6 children, group homes at 7 to 12 and centers above 12, each on a two-year license 34. A secondary summary of the center standards gives staff ratios of 1:11 for children aged 2½ to 4 and 1:18 for those from 4 to school age, and did not retrieve the infant and toddler ratios 81.
For bars and restaurants, a secondary guide reports no quota for most alcohol license types 36; a primary source on quota status was not found.
Alabama cut its fuel tank charge in 2024 and narrowed a contractor exemption in 2026.
Then the state lodgings tax and the coast's insurance record.
| Item | Figure or rule | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tank Trust Fund charge on motor fuel | $0.01 per gallon (previously $0.012 per gallon) | From the May 2024 return | 39 |
| Construction materials | Contractors pay sales or use tax; exemption certificates for governmental-entity projects (under a 2013 act) and abated industrial or research projects | Current | 40 |
| State lodgings tax rate | 4% in 51 counties; 5% in the 16 Alabama Mountain Lakes counties | Current | 75 |
| State lodgings tax reach | Applies to stays under 180 days, vacation rentals included | Current | 41 |
| Beach Pool territory (secondary) | Coastal areas of Baldwin and Mobile counties | 2025 | 42 |
| Coastal commercial insurance | HJR220 adopted, recognising instability and calling for review | April 24, 2025 | 12 |
A fuel retailer's cost line moved in 2024. The Department of Revenue cut the Tank Trust Fund charge to $0.01 per gallon of motor fuel from the May 2024 return, down from $0.012 per gallon 39.
The state sales tax rate is 4% in general, 1.5% on manufacturing and farm machinery and 2% on automotive sales, with local rates added 83. Alabama contractors pay sales or use tax on the materials they buy, with exemption certificates limited to projects for governmental entities and to abated industrial or research projects 40. That exemption narrowed in 2026: on abatements granted from June 1, 2026, a contractor holding the certificate files and pays the state sales tax that the abatement does not cover 40. The state lodgings tax is 4% in 51 counties and 5% in the 16 Alabama Mountain Lakes counties, by the Department of Revenue's rate report 75. It applies to stays of under 180 days, vacation rentals included, and a host whose booking platform remits all state and local lodgings tax is relieved of separate accounts 41.
On the coast, the Alabama Insurance Underwriting Association's Beach Pool covers the coastal areas of Baldwin and Mobile counties, by a secondary account 42, and on April 24, 2025 the Legislature adopted HJR220, recognising instability in the coastal commercial property market and recommending that the Department of Insurance review rate setting, claim denials and nonrenewals and that the wind pool's expansion be studied 12.
FEMA approved emergency declaration HQ-26-163 for Hurricane Isaias on October 9, 2026.
| Item | Figure or event | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| FEMA emergency declaration HQ-26-163 | Baldwin, Escambia and Mobile counties and the Poarch Band of Creek Indians | Approved October 9, 2026 (incident from October 7) | 5 |
| Mandatory evacuation | Non-residents south of the Intracoastal Waterway in Baldwin and in Zone 1 in Mobile | From 2:30 p.m., October 8, 2026 | 11 |
| Intensity | Reported at Category 3 strength before it reached the Gulf Coast | October 7 to 8, 2026 report | 44 |
| Federal disaster declarations for severe storms | 43 of 85 (50.6%) | 1980 to September 3, 2026 | 43 |
On October 9, 2026 FEMA approved emergency declaration HQ-26-163 for Hurricane Isaias, covering Baldwin, Escambia and Mobile counties and the Poarch Band of Creek Indians, for an incident that began on October 7, and set the federal share of direct federal assistance at 75% 5. The Governor had declared a state emergency on October 7 44, and the state ordered non-residents out of Baldwin County south of the Intracoastal Waterway and out of Mobile's Zone 1 from 2:30 p.m. on October 8 11. The storm was reported at Category 3 strength before it reached the Gulf Coast 44. A damage assessment or major disaster declaration was not found when the research closed. Over the longer run, USAFacts counts 85 federal disaster declarations for Alabama from 1980 to September 3, 2026, 43 of them, or 50.6%, for severe storms 43.
County Business Patterns counted Alabama's hotel establishments in 2023; the tourism department counted 29.2 million visitors in 2025.
| Measure | Figure | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Visitor spending | $24.9 billion (record, +4%) | Calendar 2025 | 8 |
| Visitors | 29.2 million | Calendar 2025 | 8 |
| Tourism-supported jobs | 255,780 | Calendar 2025 | 8 |
County Business Patterns recorded 908 establishments, meaning locations with paid employees, among hotels and motels other than casino hotels in 2023 (County Business Patterns), and the same series counted 15,851 employees in 2023 (County Business Patterns) 45. On the demand side, the state's tourism department reported a record $24.9 billion of visitor spending in 2025, up 4%, from 29.2 million visitors, with 255,780 jobs supported 8. The beach market's lodging figures are in the Baldwin County section.
The 2020 to 2024 five-year American Community Survey estimate counts 595,092 renter households statewide; across renter-occupied units paying cash rent the median gross rent is $1,007, and the median value of owner-occupied homes is $209,900 25. The same survey counts 904,259 residents aged 65 and over in its 2020 to 2024 five-year estimate 25.
In April 2026 DHR posted proposed standards for Alabama's family day care homes.
| Date | Event | Where it applies | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 2025 | Fairhope's residential moratorium reported | Approvals and rooftop timing on the Eastern Shore | 46 |
| February 25, 2025 | ADEM revises Tank Trust Fund per diem rates, effective April 1 | Cleanup cost basis for fuel sites | 38 |
| March 2025 | Orange Beach pauses certain multifamily and subdivision applications | Beach supply pipeline | 47 |
| April 24, 2025 | Legislature adopts HJR220 on coastal commercial insurance | Insurance cost and availability on the coast | 12 |
| May 2025 | Foley pauses subdivisions and RV and mobile home parks | RV park and housing approvals in south Baldwin | 48 |
| October 2025 | Airbus opens a second A320neo-family line in Mobile | Aerospace payroll in the Mobile market | 49 |
| December 3, 2025 | Moratorium on multi-specialty surgery center CON applications reported | Approval risk for outpatient surgery | 14 |
| December 15, 2025 | Revised SHPDA Certificate of Need rules take effect | Process for every health care project | 4 |
| January 2026 | Commerce reports a record 2025 for announced investment | Announced jobs to verify against hiring | 7 |
| January 2026 | Robertsdale begins a high-density residential pause tied to sewer capacity | Utility capacity as an approval gate | 18 |
| January 29, 2026 | PARCA reports population growth slowing as immigration is curtailed | Migration inputs for 2026 demand models | 10 |
| April 2026 | DHR posts proposed standards for family day care homes | Capacity and staffing for small child care operators | 35 |
| May 14, 2026 | Record 2025 tourism spending reported | Lodging demand baseline | 8 |
| June 1, 2026 | Contractors holding exemption certificates on newly granted abatements must pay the unabated state sales tax | Materials cost on abated industrial and research projects | 40 |
| SOP 50 10 8.1 takes effect | SBA program rules for applications received by SBA on or after October 1, 2026 | 71 | |
| October 7 to 9, 2026 | Hurricane Isaias: coastal evacuation and a FEMA emergency declaration | Post-storm season, condition and insurance on the coast | 511 |
Alabama's 2025 population figures differ by scope, by source and by date.
A Montgomery County total used for a site in the city or in Pike Road
Montgomery County added 2 residents in 2025; in the same estimates the city of Montgomery lost about 500 and Pike Road gained about 500 3.
DHR asks a child care center's applicant for a statement that the site complies with zoning.
Baldwin County cities that paused filings
The Baldwin County section gives the four city pauses of 2025 and 2026 as their reports date them 18464748.
DHR's file for a child care center
DHR asks a center's applicant for a statement that the site complies with zoning, and for fire and health inspection reports without violations before it licenses the center, which then opens on a permit 33.
Where the eight Alabama markets differ: growth, anchors and local rules.
An air base and the state payroll in Montgomery, a shipbuilder's payroll in Mobile, campuses in Auburn and Tuscaloosa, beach lodging in Baldwin.
Six of the seven markets written up below are census metro areas, each with a Census estimate for July 1, 2025 as Wikipedia relays it 50. The seventh, the Black Belt, is a band of rural counties that this page names one by one.
Auburn-Opelika
A university and health care market built on Auburn University and East Alabama Health, based in Opelika.
Birmingham-Hoover
A seven-county metro anchored by UAB and Regions Financial, with the Birmingham VA Medical Center and three certified development companies in its record.
Rural Black Belt
A belt of rural counties, two of them inside neighbouring metros, where a private broadband build and a health sciences school in Demopolis are the documented capital items.
Gulf Shores / Baldwin County coast (Daphne-Fairhope-Foley MSA)
A metro PARCA ranks among the country's fastest-growing, with lodging revenue dated to 2026 and a named beach lodging pipeline.
Huntsville
Our Huntsville page carries Redstone Arsenal's job figures, the Eli Lilly plant's construction schedule in Limestone County and Kirkland's count of apartments absorbed and delivered in 2025.
Mobile
A port, shipyard and aircraft assembly city whose metro is Mobile County alone, with Austal USA and Airbus Mobile among its dated employers.
Montgomery
The capital, built on an air base and state payroll, with new plants announced in the metro and a city that lost residents in 2025.
Auburn-Opelika's record holds a health system's own count of 380 physicians and a federal count of education jobs.
Population, education occupations and East Alabama Health's physicians are on this page for the metro.
The Auburn-Opelika metro covers Lee and Macon counties and held 208,013 residents on July 1, 2025, by the Census estimate as Wikipedia relays it 50. Lee County held 189,881 of them and Macon County 18,132 50.
The base is a university and a regional health system. The Bureau of Labor Statistics counted 8,350 jobs in education occupations in the metro in May 2025, 11.5% of its employment against 5.9% nationally 51. East Alabama Health, the regional system based in Opelika, is the medical anchor, with about 4,100 employees and 380 physicians by its own count 52. The research takes Auburn University's place as the area's largest employer from East Alabama Health's own page, which gives no headcount for it 52. Set against the state's other metros, that base differs from Montgomery's, which rests on an air base and the state payroll, and from Tuscaloosa's, a university and an automaker. PARCA reports that the metro grew by almost 2,000 residents from 2024 to 2025 2.
Birmingham-Hoover: UAB, the VA and its CDCs around a shrinking city.
A seven-county metro with a payroll count to August 2026 and certified development company totals back to FY2010.
Growth runs to the edges
The seven-county metro held 1,197,766 residents on July 1, 2025, as Wikipedia relays the Census estimate 50. Inside it the direction depends on the county. The city of Birmingham lost 4,333 residents between 2020 and 2025 by PARCA's count 3, and Jefferson County lost 843 residents in 2025, while the metro as a whole gained 3,450 2. Shelby County added 2,746 in the year to July 2025 and St. Clair County added 1,160 2.
Payrolls and anchors
The Bureau of Labor Statistics put metro nonfarm employment at 566.2 thousand in August 2025 and 571.4 thousand in August 2026, a gain of 0.9%, preliminary 53. A December 2025 multifamily report lists UAB and UAB Hospital first, at 35,000 employees, and Regions Financial second, at 9,000, among the area's employers, then Walmart with 7,750 employees 54; it also gives the Birmingham VA Medical Center 2,795 employees and 313 beds 54.
Rents and the CDC record
HUD's FY2026 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent for Birmingham is $1,520, as BNBCalc relays it 29. Every broker apartment reading the research found for Birmingham was undated, so none is used.
By sbaloanindex.com's tabulation of SBA data from FY2010 to March 31, 2026, the most active CDCs in the metro were Birmingham Citywide Local Development Co., with 191 loans for $129.2 million 55, Southern Development Council, with $86.9 million 55, and Florida Business Development Corp., with 60 loans for $61.1 million 55. Those are cumulative figures for the whole period, not a single year's activity.
| Birmingham indicator | Figure | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Metro residents | 1,197,766 | July 1, 2025 | 50 |
| City of Birmingham population change | -4,333 | 2020 to 2025 | 3 |
| Shelby / St. Clair County one-year change | +2,746 / +1,160 | 2024 to 2025 | 2 |
| Metro nonfarm jobs | 566.2 thousand to 571.4 thousand | August 2025 to August 2026 | 53 |
| HUD two-bedroom Fair Market Rent | $1,520 | FY2026 | 29 |
| Birmingham Citywide LDC, 504 lending | 191 loans, $129.2 million | FY2010 to March 31, 2026 | 55 |
| Florida Business Development Corp., 504 lending | 60 loans, $61.1 million | FY2010 to March 31, 2026 | 55 |
Six rural counties and Marengo: a broadband build and a health sciences school in Alabama's Black Belt.
Lowndes and Greene counties sit inside neighbouring metros.
The Black Belt is a band of rural counties, named here as Perry, Lowndes, Wilcox, Dallas, Greene and Bullock, with Marengo as context. It is not a census metro area, and two of its counties belong to neighbouring metros: Lowndes is part of the Montgomery metro and Greene part of the Tuscaloosa metro 50, and Greene lost residents in 2025 2. The research holds no aggregate population or list of largest employers for the region.
One documented capital project is broadband. In March 2024 the state's commerce department announced a $230 million private project by Meridiam and Yellowhammer to reach 53,000 premises over more than 300 route miles in Selma, Demopolis and other cities of the Black Belt counties 56. Its 2026 status was not found. The second is a school: the University of Alabama Education Policy Center describes the Alabama School of Healthcare Sciences in Demopolis as a $40 million project due to open in fall 2026 79. The same center counts 19 of the 24 counties it places in the Black Belt in persistent poverty 79.
Baldwin County's coast: lodging revenue, a beach pipeline and the population record.
The 2020 Census count, two usable later figures and the county's permits come first.
Growth
Baldwin County counted 231,767 residents in the 2020 Census 57. Of the later population figures the research holds, two are usable: the Census estimate for July 1, 2025 as Wikipedia relays it, 267,761 50, and 265,813 from the county's economic development alliance, in an undated Gulf Coast Media article on the metro's growth ranking 58. PARCA put the metro's growth in 2025 at 2%, 11th among U.S. metros 2. The county authorized 3,883 private housing units in 2024 and 4,363 in 2023 59. The metro's three-month average payroll change was 0.0 thousand in June 2026, preliminary 60.
Lodging
Lodging rental spending in Gulf Shores, Orange Beach and Fort Morgan reached $923 million in 2025, against $871 million in 2024 61, and Gulf Shores and Orange Beach reported $739 million of lodging revenue from January to July 2026, $60 million more than a year earlier 62. The same report put the named pipeline (Margaritaville Orange Beach, Abaco, Caribe Seaside, Phoenix Key, Hotel Rain, an AC by Marriott and a TownPlace Suites) at 346,750 room-nights, and counted 950 beachfront lodging units planned over two years 62. Inland, a Cobblestone hotel of 54 rooms was announced in January 2025 for Bay Minette 63, the town that hosts the Novelis plant site at the South Alabama Megasite off I-65 64. Business Alabama gives the Novelis plant as an investment of more than $5 billion and 2.8 million square feet 63, and WKRG reported a target of up to 1,000 hires in July 2025 64. Hotel occupancy, average daily rate and RevPAR were not found.
Rules and utilities
Four cities slowed approvals. Fairhope's residential moratorium, reported in February 2025, covered multiple-occupancy projects and certain subdivisions and exempted commercial development 46. Orange Beach paused certain multifamily and subdivision applications for nine months from March 2025 47. Foley paused subdivisions and RV and mobile home parks in May 2025 48. Robertsdale paused high-density residential from January to July 2026, citing sewer capacity; the report quotes the line "Our sewer infrastructure has been behind for years" 18. A vacation rental guide describes the rental rules: Gulf Shores requires a license, a local contact and an inspection every three years, and Orange Beach prohibits short-term rentals in its RS and MHS zones 65. A 40-acre rezoning from RA to RSF-2 at the Foley Beach Express and Roscoe Road was reported in February 2025 46. Impact fee amounts were not found.
| Baldwin indicator | Figure | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| County residents, 2020 Census | 231,767 | April 1, 2020 | 57 |
| County residents, Census estimate (Wikipedia relay) | 267,761 | July 1, 2025 | 50 |
| County residents, economic development alliance | 265,813 | Undated article | 58 |
| Private housing units authorized | 3,883 | 2024 | 59 |
| Private housing units authorized | 4,363 | 2023 | 59 |
| Lodging rental spending, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach and Fort Morgan | $923 million | 2025 | 61 |
| Lodging revenue, Gulf Shores and Orange Beach | $739 million | January to July 2026 | 62 |
| Named lodging pipeline | 346,750 room-nights | September 2026 | 62 |
Mobile County, the whole of its metro, held 411,658 residents in July 2025 and lost residents over the year.
Business Alabama's manufacturer list and a 2025 project announcement are among the dated records of its employer base.
The Mobile metro is Mobile County alone and held 411,658 residents on July 1, 2025, as Wikipedia relays the Census estimate 50. The city of Mobile counted 200,824 in 2025 by PARCA's count 3, and during the year the county lost 535 residents and the city 788 3.
Business Alabama's June 2025 list of manufacturers counts 3,000 employees at Austal USA and 2,000 at Airbus in Mobile 76. Airbus opened its second A320neo-family final assembly line in Mobile in October 2025 49, and ArcelorMittal's Mobile County project was among the state's 2025 announcements 66. The research holds no current figure for USA Health, the University of South Alabama or the port, port tonnage included.
HUD's FY2026 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent for Mobile is $1,440 29. Markets across the state line are read on our Mississippi page.
Montgomery's four counties: an air base, the state payroll and new plant projects.
Government payroll, suburban growth and a shrinking city.
Growth
The Montgomery metro held 388,747 residents on July 1, 2025 50. Montgomery County accounted for 225,891, Elmore 91,577, Autauga 61,920 and Lowndes, which also belongs to the Black Belt, 9,359 50. In 2025 Montgomery County added 2 residents, the city lost about 500, and Pike Road gained about 500 and Prattville 400 3.
Employers and projects
The base is public. The regional chamber's 2025 list puts Maxwell-Gunter Air Force Base at 12,500 employees, the State of Alabama at 10,315 in Montgomery, Baptist Health at 5,000, Hyundai Motor Manufacturing Alabama at 4,200 and Montgomery Public Schools at 3,325 67. Plant projects sit beside that base. Diageo announced a $415 million beverage plant in Montgomery County in 2025 68 and Owens Corning a $325 million shingle plant in Prattville, in Autauga County 22. Hyundai MOBIS broke ground on a 460,000-square-foot parts facility in October 2024 69; its 2026 status was not found. On September 29, 2026 Hyundai announced a $500 million investment at its Montgomery plant to move Tucson hybrid production there and add new engines, hybrid components and an extended-range electric powertrain, by a secondary account that gives no job count or timeline 78.
| Montgomery indicator | Figure | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Metro residents | 388,747 | July 1, 2025 | 50 |
| Maxwell-Gunter AFB employees | 12,500 | 2025 | 67 |
| State of Alabama employees in Montgomery | 10,315 | 2025 | 67 |
| Diageo beverage plant, Montgomery County | $415 million | Announced 2025 | 68 |
| Owens Corning shingle plant, Prattville | $325 million | Announced 2025 | 22 |
| Hyundai MOBIS parts facility | 460,000 sf | Groundbreaking October 2024 | 69 |
| Hyundai Montgomery plant investment (secondary) | $500 million | Announced September 29, 2026 | 78 |
Tuscaloosa's metro: Tuscaloosa and Hale counties gained in 2025, Greene and Pickens lost.
A university county at the centre, and Greene County shared with the Black Belt.
The Tuscaloosa metro, Tuscaloosa, Hale, Greene and Pickens counties, held 281,850 residents on July 1, 2025, and Tuscaloosa County 241,368 of them 50. In 2025 the metro grew by just over 300 residents, with Tuscaloosa and Hale counties gaining, Hale by about 50, while Greene and Pickens declined 2. Greene County belongs both to this metro and to the Black Belt section 50.
Business Alabama puts Mercedes-Benz U.S. International at about 6,000 employees in 2025 77. The other headcounts the research found, for the University of Alabama, DCH Regional Medical Center, Northport Medical Center and the city, carry no date, so none is used here. HUD's FY2026 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent for Tuscaloosa is $1,020 29.
Alabama's published case buys an operating fuel store on Opelika's stretch of I-85.
A hypothetical store and buyer, in Lee County, with the corridor and its competitors taken from dated public records.
Our Opelika gas station case describes itself as a representative worked example: a hypothetical buyer of an operating branded fuel and convenience store on Opelika's I-85 corridor, in Lee County, asks for an SBA 7(a) loan as a change of ownership. The seller's history predates a competitor that opened at a nearby exit in late 2025, and the case would close the loan only after 2026 results confirm the run rate. Its page calls it the acquisition counterpart to a new-build case in Cartersville, Georgia, on I-75.
Asset class pages, led by the health care, child care and fuel uses Alabama licenses or regulates.
Alabama feasibility study questions.
How many people live in Alabama, and is the state still growing?
Yes, slowly: 5,193,088 residents on July 1, 2025 by the Census Bureau's estimate, against 5,025,437 in the April 2020 base 1. The city of Birmingham lost 4,333 residents between 2020 and 2025, and the city of Mobile lost residents during 2025 3.
What does the Alabama record say about coastal property insurance?
The Legislature has asked for a review: HJR220, adopted on April 24, 2025, recognised instability in the coastal commercial property market and recommended that the Department of Insurance review rate setting, claim denials and nonrenewals 12. The costs section sets the resolution beside the association that insures the coast.
Which Alabama health care projects go before SHPDA?
Any new institutional health service, which needs a Certificate of Need from SHPDA 13. The Review Board's recent agendas show the range: dialysis, ambulatory surgery, inpatient hospice and rehabilitation, substance use treatment and assisted living beds converted to specialty care 30. Multi-specialty surgery center applications met a moratorium on processing, reported in December 2025 14.
Which Alabama rules reach an SBA gas station purchase?
Two state tank rules sit beside the federal test. The Tank Trust Fund charge fell to $0.01 per gallon from the May 2024 return, down from $0.012 39, and ADEM's trust fund reimburses eligible assessment and cleanup 37. SBA's acquisition test, set out on our SBA practice page 71, is worked through in the Opelika fuel acquisition.
Who administers Alabama's State Small Business Credit Initiative money?
Innovate Alabama, through five programs of which collateral support is the largest, under an allocation of up to $97.9 million that Treasury approved in 2024 and that launched in June 2024 26. In the 2011 round ADECA received $31,301,498 for the state's capital access, loan guarantee and loan participation programs 27. The capital section sets both beside SBA's own loan file.
How much did visitors spend in Alabama in 2025, and what did lodging rentals on the coast take in?
The state tourism department reported a record $24.9 billion of visitor spending in 2025, up 4%, from 29.2 million visitors 8. On the coast, lodging rental spending in Gulf Shores, Orange Beach and Fort Morgan reached $923 million in 2025 61, and the Baldwin County section gives the 2026 lodging revenue and the named beach pipeline.
Worked cases in Alabama.
States that border Alabama.
Ask us about an Alabama project before the lender does.
Each Alabama figure above carries its date and its source in the list below.
Request a methodology briefingData sources and dates.
Some Alabama entries below record what the research could not settle about the document itself: PARCA's county release carries two possible publication dates, several titles are given as the research truncated them, and other entries carry no recorded title.
- U.S. Census Bureau, QuickFacts: Alabama, undated table (Vintage 2025 estimate for July 1, 2025; April 1, 2020 base).
- PARCA (Public Affairs Research Council of Alabama), Drop in International Migration Slows Net Population Growth in Most of Alabama Counties, 2026, publication date unresolved (March 31 or October 2026); 2024 to 2025 county estimates.
- PARCA (Public Affairs Research Council of Alabama), Cities in the north, south, and east grow fastest... (title as truncated in the research), undated release (2020 to 2025 city and county estimates).
- Alabama State Health Planning and Development Agency (SHPDA), Alabama Certificate of Need Program Rules and Regulations, rules effective December 15, 2025.
- Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), President Donald J. Trump Approves Emergency Declaration for Alabama, October 9, 2026 (incident from October 7, 2026).
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Change in total nonfarm employment by state, 2026 release (August 2025 to August 2026, preliminary).
- Alabama Department of Commerce, 2025 New & Expanding Industry Announcements Report, January 2026 (calendar 2025 announcements).
- Alabama Political Reporter, reporting the Alabama Tourism Department, Over 29 million tourists spent $24.9 billion in Alabama in 2025, May 14, 2026 (calendar 2025).
- University of Alabama Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER), Migration is the Primary Driver of Alabama's Uneven Growth, April 24, 2026 (2023-24 and 2024-25 estimates).
- PARCA (Public Affairs Research Council of Alabama), Population Growth Slows As Immigration is Curtailed, January 29, 2026 (2024-25 estimates).
- Alabama Department of Conservation and Natural Resources (ADCNR), Hurricane Isaias, October 8, 2026 notice.
- Insurance Business, Alabama Legislature targets coastal commercial insurance stability with adoption of HJR220, April 24, 2025.
- Justia (Code of Alabama text), 2025 Code of Alabama Section 22-21-265, 2025 Code.
- Alabama Political Reporter, The 'all politics' healthcare project in Hoover... (title as truncated in the research), December 3, 2025.
- Alabama Department of Public Health (Alabama Administrative Code), Chapter 420-5-20 Specialty Care Assisted Living Facilities, current chapter (undated).
- GoSBA Loans (secondary, lender ranking site), Best Alabama SBA Lenders & Rates (2026), February 2, 2026 (calendar 2025 data).
- LendingTree (secondary), The SBA Provides Tens of Billions in Funding Each Fiscal Year, undated page (FY2024 data).
- Gulf Coast Media, Robertsdale pauses high-density growth... (title as truncated in the research), 2026 (pause of January to July 2026).
- U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee, Alabama Employment Update, September 18, 2026 (August 2025 to August 2026).
- Alabama Department of Workforce, LMI Newsletter, September 2026 newsletter (August 2026 data, preliminary).
- Alabama Department of Workforce, Alabama Sees Continued Job Growth and Rising Wages in July Economic Data, August 21, 2026 (July 2025 to July 2026).
- Office of the Governor of Alabama, Governor Ivey announces record-breaking year for Alabama economic development, January 2026 (calendar 2025 announcements).
- Rocket City Now (WZDX), citing the Commerce report (secondary), Article on the 2025 New and Expanding Industry Report (no title recorded in the research), January 20, 2026 (calendar 2025).
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income by County, Metro, and Other Areas (Regional table CAINC1), calendar year 2024; retrieved October 16, 2026.
- U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, Detailed Tables (Census Data API), 2020 to 2024 five-year estimates; retrieved October 16, 2026.
- U.S. Department of the Treasury, U.S. Department of the Treasury Announces $97 Million Investment to Support Small Business Success in Alabama (press release jy2440), 2024 (allocation approved 2024; program launched June 2024).
- Treasury SSBCI rollout summary, reprinted by WIPP, SSBCI rollout summary (1.0), 2011.
- U.S. Small Business Administration, Office of Capital Access, 7(a) and 504 FOIA loan-level data, loan status as of June 30, 2026 (approval fiscal years 2016 to 2025); retrieved October 16, 2026.
- BNBCalc (secondary, relaying HUD FY2026 Fair Market Rents), HUD Fair Market Rent relay, Alabama (no title recorded in the research), undated page (FY2026 Fair Market Rents).
- Alabama State Health Planning and Development Agency (SHPDA), CON Review Board tentative agendas (revised tentative agenda, December 2025), December 2025 (FY2025 and FY2026 agendas).
- U.S. HHS Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation (ASPE), Residential Care/Assisted Living Compendium: Alabama (2015), 2015 compendium (categories read against the rules effective April 6, 2019).
- Alabama State Board of Health (reprinted by ALAA), Assisted Living Facility rules, rules effective April 6, 2019.
- Alabama Department of Human Resources (DHR), Information to be Submitted... Before a Day Care Center is Licensed, November 2025 posting (form revised September 2021).
- startbusinessbystate.com (secondary), How to Start a Daycare in Alabama (2026), 2026.
- Alabama Department of Human Resources (DHR), Proposed standards document for family day care homes (no title recorded in the research), April 2026.
- liquorlicensecost.com (secondary), Alabama liquor license guide (no title recorded in the research), 2026.
- Alabama Department of Environmental Management (ADEM), Tank Trust Fund page (no title recorded in the research), current page (undated).
- Alabama Department of Environmental Management (ADEM), Memorandum on Tank Trust Fund per diem rates (no title recorded in the research), February 25, 2025 (rates effective April 1, 2025); public notice of October 29, 2025.
- Alabama Department of Revenue, NOTICE Underground and Aboveground Storage Tank Trust Fund Charge, undated notice (charge from the May 2024 return).
- Alabama Department of Revenue, Contractor Info, current page (undated).
- Gulf Shores & Orange Beach Tourism, Alabama lodging tax checklist, current page (undated).
- itscovered.com (secondary), Alabama Home Insurance Market guide 2025, 2025.
- USAFacts (FEMA data), How many disasters are declared in Alabama?, as of September 3, 2026 (declarations since 1980).
- FOX10 (WALA), Gov. Ivey declares state emergency, 40 counties (words of the article address; no title recorded in the research), October 7 to 8, 2026.
- U.S. Census Bureau, 2023 County Business Patterns (Census Data API), 2023 (employment for the pay period including March 12, 2023); retrieved October 16, 2026.
- Baldwin County MLS, Local Government Update - February 2025, February 2025.
- Gulf Coast Media, Foley moratorium puts temporary pause... (title as truncated in the research), 2025 (reporting the Orange Beach moratorium of March 2025).
- Gulf Shores News, Third Baldwin city places building moratorium to slow growth (title as given in the article address), May 7, 2025.
- Wikipedia (secondary), Airbus Mobile, undated page (second line opened October 2025).
- Wikipedia (relaying Census Vintage 2025, secondary), Alabama statistical areas, undated page (estimates for July 1, 2025).
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wages in Auburn-Opelika, May 2025, 2026 release (May 2025 estimates).
- East Alabama Health, About Us, current page (undated).
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Over-the-year change in total nonfarm employment for large metropolitan areas, September 30, 2026 (August 2025 to August 2026, preliminary).
- The Kirkland Company, 2025.12 Birmingham Multifamily Market Report, December 2025.
- sbaloanindex.com (secondary, tabulating SBA FOIA data), SBA Lenders in Birmingham, AL, as of March 31, 2026 (FY2010 to FY2026, cumulative).
- Made in Alabama (Alabama Department of Commerce), Firms' $230 million broadband project to give lift to Selma, Black Belt counties (title as given in the article address), March 2024.
- U.S. Census Bureau, QuickFacts: Baldwin County, undated table (April 1, 2020 Census count).
- Gulf Coast Media, reporting the Baldwin County Economic Development Alliance, Baldwin County now has the 6th fastest-growing metro in US (title as given in the article address), undated article.
- U.S. Census Bureau via FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), Baldwin County building permits (BPPRIV001003), annual series (calendar 2023 and 2024).
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employees on nonfarm payrolls... 3-month average change (title as truncated in the research), 2026 release (June 2026, preliminary).
- Gulf Shores & Orange Beach Tourism, Alabama's Beaches 2026 Tourism Summit, 2026 (calendar 2025 data).
- FOX10 (WALA), New tourism impact numbers for Gulf Shores and Orange Beach, September 6, 2026 (January to July 2026).
- Business Alabama, Spotlight on Baldwin County: Economic Engines, undated (announcement of January 2025).
- WKRG, Novelis is hiring: a thousand jobs up for grabs in Bay Minette (title as given in the article address), 2025.
- Big Beach AL (secondary), Vacation rental buyer guide, current page (undated).
- Southern Economic Development Council (reprint of a Commerce release), Governor Ivey Announces Record-Breaking Year for Alabama Economic Development (reprint), January 20, 2026.
- Montgomery Regional Chamber, MGM Employers, 2025 list.
- Office of the Governor of Alabama, Silver Shovel release (June 2026), June 2026 (2025 announcements).
- Business Alabama, Spotlight on Montgomery County: Economic Engines, undated (groundbreaking of October 2024).
- eCFR, 13 CFR 120.160, Loan conditions, current to October 7, 2026.
- U.S. Small Business Administration, SOP 50 10 8.1, Lender and Development Company Loan Programs, with Technical Policy Updates, effective October 1, 2026.
- U.S. Small Business Administration, Doing business in the Alabama District, September 3, 2025.
- U.S. Census Bureau, Population Growth Slows Due to Historic Decline in Net International Migration, January 27, 2026 (Vintage 2025; July 2024 to June 2025).
- sbaloanindex.com (secondary, tabulating SBA FOIA data), Southern Development Council profile, as of March 31, 2026 (FY2025).
- Alabama Department of Revenue, Lodgings tax rate report, current, as the research records it.
- Business Alabama, Alabama's Largest Manufacturers (2025 manufacturing listing), June 2025.
- Business Alabama, Spotlight on Tuscaloosa County, undated (2025 figure).
- Alabama Political Reporter (secondary; also reported by Yellowhammer News and Montgomery Up), Article on Hyundai's $500 million Montgomery investment (no title recorded in the research), September 30, 2026 (announcement of September 29, 2026).
- University of Alabama Education Policy Center, Bridging Persistent Poverty Gap in Alabama's Black Belt, 2025.
- Alabama Department of Commerce, 2024 New & Expanding Industry Announcements Report, March 2025 (calendar 2024 announcements).
- Alabama Childcare Facts (secondary), Minimum Standards, undated page (current standards; infant and toddler ratios not retrieved).
- Made in Alabama (Alabama Department of Commerce), Governor Ivey announces more than $20 million in Growing Alabama funding for 10 sites (words of the article address), May 5, 2026.
- Alabama Department of Revenue, Sales and Use Tax Incentives, current page (undated).
- Alabama Small Business Development Center (secondary), AssistAL: SSBCI, current page (2025 to 2026).