Feasibility Study Company Independent Feasibility Analysis

Michigan · Detroit

Detroit Feasibility Studies

A Detroit feasibility study is built from evidence that arrives with a date and a boundary attached. The employer list in the record is from July 2022 1, the Our Next Energy job commitment was cut to 1,606 in a September 2026 amendment 2, and three brokers read one quarter's industrial vacancy three ways, so the study prints the vintage of each figure and the inventory it counts. Demand is then sized for the cities and townships the subject's customers live in, with the six-county total shown only as context.

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4.39
Million Detroit-Warren-Dearborn residents, July 1, 2025 6
4,179
Metro apartment units being built on a broker's Q2 2026 count 13
649,095
City of Detroit residents, July 1, 2025, a third straight annual gain 8
55.9%
Hotel occupancy, November 2025, second from the bottom among the 25 biggest U.S. markets 15
Economic Base

Automaker counts from 2022, a disputed hospital headcount and plant terms that move.

The latest dated employer ranking in the research is the Detroit Regional Chamber's list of July 2022, and it counts staff across Southeast Michigan, an area that reaches past the six counties. On it Ford has 47,750 full-time employees, Stellantis 42,444 and General Motors 38,600; Corewell Health shows 21,674 and Henry Ford Health 17,469 1. Henry Ford's figure is contested: an undated Detroit Regional Partnership list gives the system 44,561 30, a number the research suggests may reflect the system's later joint venture with Ascension. A study that rests on a hospital campus should quote the system's current count for that campus rather than either regional total.

Plant staffing on the list moves with model programs and labor contracts. A drive-through beside an assembly plant, a limited-service hotel that books supplier engineers and a workforce apartment building leasing to line workers can each trace most of their customers to one employer's shift pattern. For projects like these the study should identify every plant inside the commute shed, give its present staffing from the employer or from the layoff notices filed with the state, and show debt service still covered after a shift is cut.

Three state-backed manufacturing projects show where new capital is going, and how far it can move after approval. On September 22, 2026 the Michigan Strategic Fund amended the Our Next Energy lithium-ion cell project in Van Buren Township, Wayne County, which also has a site in Novi: total capital investment now stands at $1,672,495,944 and the job commitment at 1,606, against 2,112 jobs in the earlier approval 2. In Macomb County, SAPA Transmission's defense transmission expansion in Shelby Township carries $163 million of investment; in Oakland County, FANUC America's expansion in Pontiac carries $90 million 3.

The battery project is the cautionary one. Housing or retail near Van Buren Township that counted the plant's first hiring promise would now be counting jobs the state no longer requires, since the amendment raised the investment and lowered the commitment together. An announced project belongs in a feasibility study only with its schedule, the state's most recent action on it and a base case that leaves it out.

Two infrastructure changes favor freight. The Gordie Howe International Bridge between Detroit and Windsor opened on July 27, 2026 with 6 lanes, and its Canadian sponsor describes it as the largest land port of entry on the Canada-U.S. border 4. Marcus & Millichap reports a Stellantis megahub under development for a 2027 opening 5. The research holds no measured traffic or payroll series for either. A truck service, fuel or warehouse project near the bridge approaches can present them as upside, but its base case should rest on counts and leases that exist today.

Employer or projectHeadcount or amountAs ofSource
Ford Motor Co., full-time employees, Southeast Michigan47,750July 20221
Stellantis, employees, Southeast Michigan42,444July 20221
General Motors, employees, Southeast Michigan38,600July 20221
Corewell Health, employees, Southeast Michigan21,674July 20221
Henry Ford Health, employees (Chamber list)17,469July 20221
Henry Ford Health, employees (Detroit Regional Partnership list)44,561Undated30
Our Next Energy, Van Buren Township and Novi: capital investment; jobs (amended)$1,672,495,944; 1,606 jobsAmended September 22, 20262
SAPA Transmission, Shelby Township, investment$163 million2026 approval3
FANUC America, Pontiac, investment$90 million2026 approval3
Gordie Howe International Bridge6 lanes; opened July 27, 202620264
Military installations in the six countiesNone in the researchn/anone
Growth

A metro total, a county count and a city gain, each for its own span.

Three Census Bureau estimates describe the region, and each covers a different area and span. The Detroit-Warren-Dearborn MSA, as carried in FRED, held 4,390,913 residents on July 1, 2025 6. Wayne County counted 1,769,038 on that date against an April 2020 base of 1,793,908 7. The City of Detroit, inside Wayne, reached 649,095, having gained 5,060 between July 2024 and July 2025, its third yearly rise in a row 8. One is a single date, one a five-year comparison and one a single year, so they cannot be netted against each other to say where inside the county people were gained or lost; that comes from estimates for the places a given trade area takes in.

Survey responses pooled from 2020 to 2024 count 1,768,816 households in the six counties and 778,679 residents aged 65 or older 11. In a region with little net growth, aging and household formation do more for demand than the headcount does. An assisted living community, a medical office or a funeral home can find a growing customer base where the total is flat, but only if the study shows the older cohort inside the subject's own radius and counts the beds or chapels already serving it.

A project whose customers are new households gets one county's count from the Detroit record and nothing finer: Wayne permitted 3,922 residential units in 2025 7, while Oakland, Macomb, Livingston, Lapeer and St. Clair have no count here and no metro total was found. Below the county the region divides into many cities, villages and townships, so the study first fixes its drive time, then totals each jurisdiction inside it from the Census Bureau's permit series and adds the subdivisions they have approved.

Unemployment in the metro went from 4.7% in August 2025 to 5.7% in August 2026, on the state's regional release 10. Payrolls did not grow to absorb it: the preliminary BLS count is 2,042.0k jobs in August 2026 against 2,046.1k a year earlier, a difference the agency does not call significant 9. For a restaurant, a car wash or any business that sells to local wage earners, that pairing argues for a base year at current sales and a downside that trims them, not a ramp that assumes the region's spending power is rising.

Income gives a ceiling, not a trade-area input. The survey places median household income at $76,664 for 2020 to 2024 11, and the six counties' per capita personal income on the BEA's count was $68,889 in 2024 12. Either figure covers all six counties at once, so a restaurant's check, a childcare center's tuition or a new building's rent should be tested against income for the subject's own tracts.

MeasureValuePeriodSource
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn MSA population4,390,913July 1, 20256
Wayne County population; April 2020 base1,769,038; 1,793,908July 1, 2025; April 20207
City of Detroit population; change over the year649,095; +5,060July 2024 to July 20258
Residential units permitted, Wayne County only3,922 units20257
Nonfarm employment, MSA2,046.1k to 2,042.0k (not statistically significant)August 2025 to August 2026 (preliminary)9
Unemployment rate, MSA4.7% to 5.7%August 2025 to August 202610
Residential permits, full MSANot published in the sources foundn/anone
Corridors and Access

Border freight, freeway frontage and no published counts.

For the six counties the research found freight news but no traffic record: MDOT's annual average daily traffic figures were not retrieved for any road, and no corridor or interchange is named with a count. A fuel station, car wash, quick-service restaurant or travel center therefore starts without its first input, and MDOT's Transportation Data Management System is where the study gets it. On a Detroit freeway the choice of station matters as much as the number: a mainline count measures through traffic that may have no way onto the parcel, so the study should report the station whose vehicles can actually turn into the subject's driveway, with its count year.

The new bridge changes where counts will matter, but not yet what they say. Until crossing volumes are published, a project that sells to trucks near the bridge approaches should treat cross-border traffic as upside and size its base case from the existing count on its own frontage. Industrial absorption was strongest in southeastern Oakland County by mid-2026 22, so a retail or service pad on freeway land there should learn whether logistics users are bidding for the same sites. The fuel and convenience hub explains why raw traffic overstates customers until capture and access are applied, and the truck stop hub reads demand by freight corridor.

Supply by Asset Class

Tight apartments, soft hotels and three readings of industrial vacancy.

Apartments: high occupancy and a small pipeline

MMG Real Estate Advisors, a broker, reports metro occupancy of 93.1% in Q2 2026, up 20 bps over the year, and average rent of $1,361, up 2.2% 13. It counts 4,179 units under construction, equal to 1.8% of inventory, with 1,403 completed over the trailing four quarters 13. Friedman Real Estate puts suburban vacancy near 4.0% with asking rent of about $1,332 14. The Census survey describes a different population, every renting household: 509,448 of them across the six counties, at a median gross rent of $1,207 pooled over 2020 to 2024 11.

With so little of the stock under construction, a new building meets few rival lease-ups, and the open question becomes its rent. The broker figures describe surveyed buildings in 2026 and the Census median every lease over five years, so neither one prices a new unit. The study should set the subject's rent against recently leased comparables in its own submarket, net of concessions, the gap our note on effective and asking rent measures. Inside the city an acquisition also carries the rental ordinance described below. The multifamily hub covers the absorption analysis.

Hotels: measured weakness, forecast optimism

The only measured Detroit hotel datapoint in the research is CoStar's November 2025 occupancy of 55.9%, second-lowest of the 25 biggest markets in the country 15. Everything else is a forecast: Marcus & Millichap projected 2025 average daily rate of $126.16, RevPAR of $74.40 and occupancy of 59%, with 1,200 new rooms opening that year, the second-largest annual supply increase in five years, and development concentrated in Downtown Detroit and Dearborn 16. The firm's 1Q 2026 report credits Detroit-Dearborn with leading RevPAR growth on a 1.4% gain in 2025 17; the research does not record which markets it was ranked against.

That leaves a Detroit hotel file with one month of actual occupancy, a year of projections and a ranking whose peers are not recorded. Because the 2025 forecast placed its new rooms downtown and in Dearborn, a subject there may compete with hotels that have little operating history of their own, so the study has to buy actual monthly results for the properties it names and test the loan at the weakest months those results show (why break-even occupancy misleads). A Visit Detroit release lists several branded downtown hotels for 2027 with their room counts, but the research recorded neither its date nor its address, so this page leaves the counts out and the study must confirm the pipeline with the city or the convention bureau before it projects rate growth.

Industrial: pick the survey and say so

Three firms read Q2 2026 differently. Colliers reports 5.2% vacancy over an inventory that also covers Ann Arbor, with 3.99M sq ft under construction 19; CBRE reports 3.6% 20; Savills reports 5.3% 21. The research reads the spread as definitional, each firm surveying its own inventory, not as a trend, so a warehouse or flex study must name the series it uses, explain why that firm's inventory fits the subject's size and clear height, and set the other two next to it. Southeastern Oakland County led absorption by mid-2026 22, and the Stellantis megahub due in 2027 5 will add to supplier demand around it.

Fuel, storage and senior housing: what stands in for a survey

Fuel retail across the six counties has a business count: the 2023 County Business Patterns tally 1,846 fuel and convenience outlets 18, a number silent on gallons sold and on how tightly stations crowd a given corner. For retail vacancy, storage occupancy, senior housing occupancy and campgrounds the research found no market survey. Each has a stand-in: the same Census series by industry code for storage and campgrounds, a drive-time competitor census for self-storage, and state licensing records for assisted living beds, because the standard senior housing occupancy series is sold by subscription only.

ClassMeasureValuePeriodSource
MultifamilyOccupancy (change over the year)93.1% (+20 bps)Q2 202613
MultifamilyAverage rent (change over the year)$1,361 (+2.2%)Q2 202613
MultifamilyUnits being built; share of stock4,179 units; 1.8%Q2 202613
MultifamilyCompletions, trailing four quarters1,403 unitsQ2 202613
Multifamily, suburbsVacancy (near); asking rent (about)4.0%; $1,332202614
HotelOccupancy, measured55.9%November 202515
HotelADR; RevPAR; occupancy (forecasts)$126.16; $74.40; 59%2025 forecast16
HotelNew rooms forecast to open1,200 rooms2025 forecast16
HotelRevPAR growth, Detroit-Dearborn+1.4%202517
IndustrialVacancy; under construction (Colliers, includes Ann Arbor)5.2%; 3.99M sq ftQ2 202619
IndustrialVacancy (CBRE)3.6%Q2 202620
IndustrialVacancy (Savills)5.3%Q2 202621
Gas stations and convenience storesEstablishments1,846202318
RV parks, retail, senior housing, storageMarket survey of occupancy or vacancyNot foundn/anone
Local Rules

Rental inspections in Detroit, STR districts in Dearborn, and fees left to confirm.

Detroit's rental ordinance passed in October 2024, began a pilot in March 2025 and, as reported that March, was scheduled for full launch on May 1, 2025; the report and the city's January 2025 summary describe a 15-point inspection checklist and one annual fee 2324. For a buyer of older rental housing in the city, the checklist is a capital item before it is a legal one. The study should report each unit's compliance status, price open items from a contractor's estimate and keep that work out of stabilized cash flow, and the lender should learn from the city whether inspections have yet reached the subject's units.

Short-term rental rules vary by city and are poorly documented. A rental-data vendor lists a $500 license fee and a 90-day cap for Detroit, figures the research marks as low confidence and not checked against the city code 25. Dearborn, a separate city, adopted a rule confining short-term rentals to its east and west downtown districts, scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2026, as reported in July 2025 26. A project whose pro forma relies on nightly rentals must read the current ordinance of its own municipality, and the study should say which one it read and when.

Impact fees, building moratoria, local hotel taxes and water and sewer capacity are missing from the research in all six counties. Property tax is only half covered: the research holds two Detroit effective commercial tax rates reported in the announcement of a state-by-state property tax study by the Lincoln Institute, but not the list or data year of either, so neither is printed here, and what that study says about the state's largest city is on the Michigan page. Because millage and fees are set by each city, village and township, two pads a mile apart can carry different tax and fee lines; the study should name the jurisdiction whose schedule applies to the parcel, date each figure it takes from it, and record whether the serving utility has confirmed capacity for the project's load.

Lenders

SBA lending across the six counties.

SBA serves the six counties from its Michigan District Office in Detroit, whose county list includes Wayne, Oakland, Macomb, Lapeer, Livingston and St. Clair 27. For borrowers in those counties SBA's FOIA file records 9,763 7(a) approvals worth $3,418.1 million over FY2016 to FY2025, plus $440.3 million of 504 approvals, each total net of cancellations 28. That record lets a lender set a request beside local SBA lending of the same kind; it says nothing about how such loans performed, and losses vary widely by industry, as our note on SBA losses by industry shows.

Within the city of Detroit, a site that tabulates SBA FOIA data on an undated page puts Huntington first by loan count 29. The research found no SBA ranking of lenders for the six counties; the district's statewide totals and FY2025 honors are on our Michigan page, and the program rules a 7(a) or 504 request meets are on our SBA lending practice page.

A city apartment portfolio or a large warehouse too big for SBA still turns on a question from this page: for the warehouse, which of the three industrial surveys the rent and vacancy assumptions rest on; for apartments inside the city, how many units have passed the rental inspection. A conventional or institutional lender's file needs that answer in the study as well.

Program Eligibility

Program maps the research did not reach.

None of the federal eligibility maps was read for the six counties, so this page cannot say which places, from Wayne County's core out to Lapeer, Livingston and St. Clair, meet USDA's rural test, sit in an Opportunity Zone or carry HUBZone status. Each answer is a lookup on the subject's address: USDA Rural Development's eligibility map for a Business and Industry guarantee, the CDFI Fund's Opportunity Zone map, SBA's HUBZone map and, for an EB-5 raise, the targeted employment area designation for the project's tracts. The study should print each result with the date it was read.

Worked Cases

A worked case in suburban Detroit.

One published case is set here: an anonymized veterinary hospital in a high-income suburb, financed with an SBA 7(a) loan. Oakland County is the kind of setting it names as its example: affluent households, many of them with pets, inside a short drive of a new-build hospital whose revenue the case follows down to debt service coverage. For a lender in the suburban counties it shows how a household-income radius becomes a coverage test. More cases are listed on our case studies page, and the veterinary practice hub explains the demand model.

Other Michigan Markets

Where the six counties end.

This page covers the six counties of the Detroit-Warren-Dearborn MSA. Washtenaw County is its own market. Flint and Saginaw, Lansing, Ann Arbor and Grand Rapids each have a section on the Michigan state page, along with statewide programs, taxes and hazards.

Before Closing

What a lender should confirm on a Detroit-area loan.

  1. Current employer staffing

    Plant and campus headcount within the commute shed from a source newer than the Chamber's 2022 list, and coverage shown after a shift or model program is lost.

  2. Announced projects on their latest terms

    The most recent state action, job schedule and opening date for any project the demand case counts, with a base case that excludes it.

  3. Permits for the subject's own township

    Totals for each jurisdiction in the drive time and the subdivisions it has approved; Wayne County's is the only permit count found.

  4. A count the subject's driveway can use

    An MDOT station whose traffic can reach the parcel, with its count year; bridge crossings left out until they are published.

  5. Named vacancy universes

    Which apartment and industrial surveys the study uses, why their inventory fits the subject, and the others shown beside them.

  6. Hotel actuals, not forecasts

    Twelve months of actual performance for the competing hotels, plus rooms being built near the subject, the 2027 downtown properties among them.

  7. A named competitor census

    Every competing station, storage facility or care home inside the drive time, listed with its size and the date it was counted.

  8. Local rules and costs

    Rental ordinance compliance inside Detroit, the municipality's short-term rental rule, current millage, impact fees and the utility's written answer on connecting the load.

  9. Eligibility rulings for the parcel

    Dated USDA, Opportunity Zone, HUBZone or EB-5 determinations for the subject's own site.

Detroit Questions

Detroit questions that turn on a date and a boundary.

Can a Detroit project's absorption be set from the city's third straight population gain?

Only for a trade area that lies within the city limits, and only at that single year's rate. The gain of 5,060 residents between July 2024 and July 2025 8 is a city figure; a suburb in Wayne County carries the county's five-year comparison with its April 2020 base 7, and neither is split among townships in the record. The lender decides whether any growth rate is accepted before the study has pulled Census estimates for the exact cities and townships in the drive time, and whether a second case with household growth at zero is required, so the approval does not rest on a number that describes a different place.

How should a Detroit warehouse loan treat the gap between CBRE's and Savills' vacancy readings?

Approval of the rent and lease-up schedule should wait until the study shows which firm's surveyed building stock the subject belongs to and reruns coverage at the other readings. CBRE put Q2 2026 vacancy at 3.6% 20 and Savills at 5.3% 21, a gap the research treats as definitional, since each firm counts its own inventory, so the sponsor's pick cannot be defended by naming the firm alone. If the loan clears at one reading and fails at another, the vacancy series is the thing being financed, and the committee should be told so in those words.

Can the 59% occupancy forecast stand as year one of a Detroit hotel pro forma?

Not as the base year: the lender should put the one measured point, CoStar's 55.9% for November 2025 15, under the stress case with rate held flat, and keep the forecast out until an actual 2025 result replaces it. The 59% figure was Marcus & Millichap's projection for 2025, reported on June 19, 2025, mid-year 16, and the research holds no full-year actual to set against it. A subject near the rooms forecast for downtown and Dearborn should also ramp from below the November reading.

Does Detroit's 2024 rental ordinance belong in the valuation or in the operating budget?

Among the uses of funds, not year one. The ordinance passed in October 2024 and, as reported in March 2025, was scheduled to reach full launch on May 1, 2025 with a 15-point checklist and one annual fee 2324; a pre-ordinance rent roll says nothing about which units would pass. Whether the purchase price or the loan absorbs the checklist cost is the lender's call, made on each unit's dated inspection status from the seller, open items priced from a contractor's bid, and a closing agreement on who funds them. A file that leaves the cost in year-one operations asks stabilized income to pay for a condition of being stabilized.

Which job figure for the Our Next Energy plant is the one a lender can hold the sponsor to?

Neither, because both belong to the state and the company, not to the borrower. The Michigan Strategic Fund's September 22, 2026 amendment set the commitment at 1,606 jobs, against 2,112 in the earlier approval 2, so the figure has moved once already. The decision is to size the loan on the demand that exists without the plant and to admit it only as a separate case with the amended figure, a start date and a hiring schedule if one is published. If the rent roll needs the plant to clear coverage, the credit is a bet that the terms are not amended again.

A metro Detroit loan? Name the survey, the list and the date behind each figure.

Most Detroit-area files turn on three local readings: the plant or hospital whose staffing the demand rests on, the apartment or industrial survey whose buildings match the subject, and, inside the city, where each unit stands on the rental inspection. A first call settles which of the three a site depends on and what dated record each one needs.

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Sources

Data sources and dates.

Bracketed numbers point to the list below. Forecasts, made before the period they describe, and the vendor page the research marked low confidence say so in their date. Broker surveys are listed under each firm's name, and each measures its own set of buildings; where the three industrial surveys differ, all three are cited.

Market data reviewed by Mark Otava · Updated

  1. Detroit Regional Chamber, Detroit Workforce, July 2022 data.
  2. Office of the Governor, State of Michigan, Gov. Whitmer Announces MSF Support for Ann Arbor Mixed-Use Development, Business Growth, September 22, 2026.
  3. Expansion Solutions, Michigan Approves 553 Jobs, $253M in Manufacturing Expansions, 2026 (Michigan Strategic Fund approvals).
  4. Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada, Gordie Howe International Bridge project page, 2026 (bridge opened July 27, 2026).
  5. Marcus & Millichap, Detroit Industrial Market Report 2Q 2026, 2Q 2026.
  6. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED (U.S. Census Bureau data), Resident Population in Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI (MSA), series DWLPOP, March 27, 2026 (population as of July 1, 2025).
  7. U.S. Census Bureau, QuickFacts: Wayne County, Michigan (Vintage 2025), 2026 (population as of July 1, 2025; permits for 2025).
  8. City of Detroit, Detroit gains thousands of new residents for 3rd straight year, according to latest U.S. Census Bureau estimate, May 2026 (population as of July 1, 2025).
  9. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Over-the-year change in total nonfarm employment for large metropolitan areas, September 30, 2026 (August 2026, preliminary).
  10. Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget, Center for Data and Analytics, Michigan regional unemployment rates edge down in August, September 24, 2026 (August 2026 data).
  11. U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, Detailed Tables, 2020-2024, 2020-2024 estimates.
  12. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income by County and Metropolitan Area (table CAINC1), 2024, 2024 estimates.
  13. MMG Real Estate Advisors (broker report), Detroit Q2 2026 Market Report, Q2 2026.
  14. Friedman Real Estate, Metro Detroit Multifamily Is Outperforming... (title truncated in the research), 2026.
  15. Hospitality Net (citing CoStar), U.S. hotel performance for November 2025, December 22, 2025 (November 2025 data).
  16. Hotel Management (citing the Marcus & Millichap 2025 Detroit Hospitality Investment Forecast), Report: Detroit hotel development surging in 2025, June 19, 2025 (2025 forecast).
  17. Marcus & Millichap, Detroit Hospitality Market Report 1Q 2026, 1Q 2026 (2025 performance).
  18. U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, 2023 County Business Patterns, 2023 data year.
  19. Colliers, Metro Detroit Industrial Market Report 2026 Q2, July 1, 2026.
  20. CBRE, Detroit Industrial Figures Q2 2026, Q2 2026.
  21. Savills, Detroit Q2 2026 Industrial, July 22, 2026.
  22. Friedman Real Estate, Metro Detroit Industrial Is Entering a More Disciplined Phase, 2026 (mid-2026 conditions).
  23. WDIV ClickOnDetroit, Detroit launches pilot phase of new rental ordinance, March 4, 2025.
  24. City of Detroit, New Rental Ordinance Summary, January 2025.
  25. Chalet, Detroit STR Regulations, 2026 (low confidence; not checked against the city code).
  26. WXYZ Detroit, 7 Weekly Recap... (title truncated in the research), July 2025.
  27. U.S. Small Business Administration, Michigan District Office, undated (read October 2026).
  28. U.S. Small Business Administration, Office of Capital Access, 7(a) and 504 FOIA loan-level data, as of June 30, 2026.
  29. SBA Loans HQ (tabulation of SBA FOIA data), Detroit, Michigan SBA lenders (FY2021 to FY2026 data), undated (read October 2026).
  30. Detroit Regional Partnership, Major Employers, undated (read October 2026).