Florida · Jacksonville
Jacksonville Feasibility Studies
A feasibility study in Jacksonville, Florida (not the North Carolina city of the same name) covers the five-county metro of Duval, St. Johns, Clay, Nassau and Baker counties. Its core, Duval County, had 1,062,963 residents on July 1, 2025 by the Census Bureau's estimate 1. Payrolls barely moved in the year to August 2026 4, while the city alone has 705,437 square feet of self-storage due in 2026, more than any other U.S. city 7. The lender's question is whether new space has run ahead of the households and jobs that must fill it.
Duval's count is firm; the metro's growth rests on a secondary compilation.
Jacksonville's population story starts in Duval County, the only county the research measures directly. The Census Bureau counted 995,569 Duval residents on April 1, 2020 and estimates 1,062,963 on July 1, 2025, a rise of 6.8% 1. For the five-county metro, a compilation of Census figures shows 1,605,848 people in 2020 and 1,785,500 in 2025, a gain of 11.19% 2. That compilation gives no month for either figure and is not a Census publication, so this page leans on the Duval numbers wherever it can.
St. Johns, Clay, Nassau and Baker have no population figure of their own in the research, so a site in Nocatee, Fleming Island, Yulee or Macclenny is sized from the metro compilation and from the county's own Census rows.
Permits trace the same households. Duval County issued permits for 6,017 housing units in calendar 2025 1. At the metro level, the Census permit series that FRED republishes recorded 1,140 units in September 2025 and 1,124 in October, then 613 in November and 701 in December 3. The full-year metro total was not found, so the one turn the permit record shows is that late-2025 drop, and it is too short a run to call a trend.
The 2020 to 2024 five-year American Community Survey estimate puts the metro's median household income at $79,643 13.
| Measure | Value | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duval County population, census base | 995,569 | April 1, 2020 | 1 |
| Duval County population, estimate | 1,062,963 | July 1, 2025 | 1 |
| Metro population (secondary compilation) | 1,605,848 | 2020 | 2 |
| Metro population (secondary compilation) | 1,785,500 | 2025 | 2 |
| Metro population change | +11.19% | 2020 to 2025 | 2 |
| Duval housing units permitted | 6,017 | Calendar 2025 | 1 |
| Metro housing units permitted, monthly | 1,140; 1,124 | September; October 2025 | 3 |
| Metro housing units permitted, monthly | 613; 701 | November; December 2025 | 3 |
A port and a Marine Corps command on record, and payrolls holding level.
The latest payroll reading is flat. The Bureau of Labor Statistics counts 803.8k nonfarm jobs in the Jacksonville metro in August 2026, a preliminary figure, against 803.3k in August 2025 4. BLS gives the August-to-August movement no significance flag 4.
The Orlando page can point to a sector, leisure and hospitality, adding jobs beneath its flat metro total; the Jacksonville record has no sector series at all, so the flat total is the only employment evidence a study here can cite.
The one anchor record in the research, a secondary Wikipedia entry for the city, names JAXPORT, which it describes as Florida's largest seaport by volume, and the Marine Corps' Blount Island Command, and gives no headcount for either 16.
Where I-95 meets I-10, and the industrial submarkets on each side.
Jacksonville sits where I-95, the East Coast's main north-south route, crosses the eastern end of I-10, which runs west toward Tallahassee. I-295 loops around the city and links both. Jacksonville International Airport sits on the Northside near the Ocean Way area, and the port's terminals line the St. Johns River east of downtown.
The industrial evidence splits by side of town. On the West Side, around the I-10 and I-295 interchange, Ironmark counts net absorption of 767,000 square feet and vacancy of 11.6% in Q2 2026 5. In the Ocean Way submarket, on the Northside near the airport and I-95 north, the same report counts net absorption of 569,000 square feet and vacancy of 12.2% in that quarter 5. Cushman & Wakefield's metro-wide read puts vacancy 290 basis points higher in Q2 2026 than a year earlier 6.
North of the city, I-95 crosses the state line onto the Georgia coast, which has its own page for Savannah.
FDOT counts are missing for every Jacksonville road in the research, the I-95 and I-10 interchange and the Northside exits included.
Storage leads the pipeline, industrial vacancy is up and retail gave back space.
Self-storage: the most new space of any U.S. city
RentCafe's August 2026 report counts 10.5 square feet of self-storage per city resident and puts 705,437 square feet, about 6.6% of the city's inventory, due in the City of Jacksonville in 2026, more than any other U.S. city 7. Yardi Matrix data, as reported by Multi-Housing News, show a metro inventory of 15.8 million square feet, 10.8 square feet per resident, and 913,201 square feet under construction in December 2025, with further space planned beyond that, and the same report lists Jacksonville among the emerging storage markets of 2026 8. The 705,437 square feet is space due in the city during 2026 and the 913,201 square feet space under construction across the metro in December 2025, so the two are not one pipeline; the two per-resident figures likewise cover the city in August 2026 and the metro in December 2025. The City of Miami's storage figures are on our Miami page. Our self-storage feasibility page sets out the competitor census.
Retail: occupied space fell in Q2 2026
Colliers reports average retail asking rent of $25.77 per square foot, vacancy of 5.0% and net absorption of minus 24,441 square feet in Q2 2026 9. Occupied retail space in the metro shrank on net that quarter, so a new strip center opens into a market that was handing space back, not taking it up. The Census Bureau counted 691 establishments in the gas station and convenience store category across the metro in 2023 (County Business Patterns) 12, the starting count for a gas station and c-store study. Our retail feasibility page covers the rest of the evidence.
Industrial: Northside and St. Johns County
NAI Hallmark puts Northside industrial vacancy at about 11% in Q2 2026 19, and its St. Johns County update records countywide industrial vacancy above 40% across Q2 and Q3 2026 20. They sit beside Ironmark's West Side and Ocean Way rows under corridors. For the metro as a whole, Cushman & Wakefield reads Q2 2026 vacancy at 11.6%, 290 basis points up on the year, with about 1.5 million square feet under construction 6, while Ironmark's metro figure for the same quarter is 9.4% 5.
Multifamily and housing
No current apartment rent or units-under-construction count for Jacksonville came back in the research, so the renter base comes from the Census alone. The 2020 to 2024 five-year American Community Survey estimate counts 222,323 renter households in the metro, with a median gross rent of $1,513 13. On the ownership side, the same 2020 to 2024 five-year American Community Survey estimate puts the median home value at $343,400 13. With no pipeline count on record, the county and metro permit files above carry more weight in a Jacksonville multifamily study than the survey median does.
Hotels
Hotels and motels in the metro (casino hotels, inns and other lodging excluded) employed 7,819 employees in 2023 (County Business Patterns) 12. Beyond that workforce count and the county hotel tax rates set out under local rules 18, the record holds no hotel figure: occupancy, average daily rate, RevPAR and the room pipeline are all absent, which leaves a Jacksonville hotel study without a published performance benchmark of any kind.
Senior housing and the empty classes
The 2020 to 2024 five-year American Community Survey estimate counts 288,035 residents aged 65 and over in the metro 13, a demand base with no matching supply figure: senior housing inventory, office, medical office, RV parks and RV and boat storage have no Jacksonville number in the research.
| Class | Measure | Value | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Self-storage | Space due in 2026, City of Jacksonville (most of any U.S. city) | 705,437 sq ft | August 2026 | 7 |
| Self-storage | Metro inventory | 15.8M sq ft | December 2025 | 8 |
| Self-storage | Metro space under construction | 913,201 sq ft | December 2025 | 8 |
| Industrial | West Side net absorption; vacancy | +767,000 sq ft; 11.6% | Q2 2026 | 5 |
| Industrial | Ocean Way net absorption; vacancy | +569,000 sq ft; 12.2% | Q2 2026 | 5 |
| Industrial | Metro vacancy change on the year | +290 bps | Q2 2026 | 6 |
| Retail | Average asking rent | $25.77/sq ft | Q2 2026 | 9 |
| Retail | Net absorption | -24,441 sq ft | Q2 2026 | 9 |
County hotel taxes, and an impact fee cap in St. Johns and Nassau.
Duval's 2026 hotel tax is 6%, and that rate already includes a 2% consolidated-county convention development tax; St. Johns, Clay and Nassau levy 5%, Nassau's not countywide, and Baker 3% 18.
Impact fees are the other local rule in the Jacksonville record. A Florida Attorney General opinion, Impact Fees Increase, records that St. Johns County held its 2025 increase to the statutory maximum and concludes that Nassau County may not exceed that cap in the circumstances presented 17.
Other written confirmations a Jacksonville parcel needs are listed on our Florida page.
SBA lending in Duval and St. Johns, and where else capital comes from.
The SBA's North Florida District, which covers the metro, described its fiscal 2025 lending as a record. Its release describes the district's reach as running from Orlando to the Panhandle 10. Duval County received 269 loans under the 7(a) and 504 programs combined, a count up 19% on the year, for $177.1M, and St. Johns County received 132 loans, up 31%, for $79.4M 10. St. Johns, the suburban county south of Duval, grew its loan count faster than the core county did. Those figures reached the research through a local chamber's repost of the district's announcement rather than an SBA dataset.
The SBA's loan-level data give a longer view. Across the metro, 7(a) lenders made 2,254 loans approved in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, net of cancellations 11. Their dollar volume over the same fiscal years 2016 to 2025, net of cancellations, was $1,391.2 million 11. The 504 program added $385.0 million approved in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, net of cancellations 11. The district announcement and the loan-level file differ in geography, period and method.
The rule behind a study request is 13 CFR 120.160(b): SBA may require professional appraisals, a survey, or a feasibility study 14, and a 7(a) loan is tested at a debt service coverage floor of 1.15x 15. In this market the storage pipeline and the flat payroll count are what that coverage test will be run against. Our SBA 7(a) and 504 practice page sets out what the program asks a study to prove, and our conventional and institutional lending page covers loans outside the SBA programs.
No rural, zone or HUBZone answer for the five counties.
No USDA rural, Opportunity Zone or HUBZone result for Duval, St. Johns, Clay, Nassau or Baker came out of the research; the check for a given parcel is described on our Florida page.
No worked case is set in the five Jacksonville counties.
Of our published worked cases, none sits in Duval, St. Johns, Clay, Nassau or Baker, which leaves the city's 2026 storage pipeline, the largest of any U.S. city 7, without a local case beside it. The Florida cases, covering fuel, hotel, storage, apartments, senior housing and clinic projects, are collected on our Florida page.
Jacksonville items a lender should confirm.
Payrolls standing still
A demand case that does not rest on metro job growth, since the BLS series counts 803.3k jobs in August 2025 and 803.8k in August 2026 4.
The late-2025 permit drop
Whether the November and December fall in metro permits reached the subject's area, and what it means for the households its lease-up assumes.
Which industrial submarket
Whether the subject sits in the West Side, Ocean Way or Northside submarket or in St. Johns County, and that reading's own 2026 vacancy rather than the metro's.
Retail rent against a soft quarter
The subject's rent set against the Colliers asking figure, with lease-up timed for a market that gave back space in Q2 2026.
The impact fee cap in St. Johns or Nassau
Whether a pending fee increase is held by the statutory cap the Attorney General opinion addresses.
What lenders ask about a Jacksonville project.
What area does a feasibility study in Jacksonville, Florida cover?
Jacksonville, Florida, and the metro around it: Duval, St. Johns, Clay, Nassau and Baker counties. It is not Jacksonville in Onslow County, North Carolina, or the smaller cities of that name in Texas, Arkansas and Illinois. Duval County, the core of the market, counted 1,062,963 residents on July 1, 2025 1. Inside Duval a study confirms whether the parcel falls under the City of Jacksonville's code or a smaller municipality's, and a site in St. Johns, Clay, Nassau or Baker answers to that county's own code and its own Census estimate.
Is Jacksonville, Florida self-storage overbuilt?
The pipeline is large enough that a study has to answer the question for its own trade area rather than the metro. RentCafe ranks the City of Jacksonville first among U.S. cities for space due in 2026, at 705,437 square feet 7, and Yardi Matrix data put 913,201 square feet under construction across the metro against an existing 15.8 million square feet in December 2025 8. The first is a city count and the second a metro count, taken at different dates.
Which industrial vacancy figure fits a Jacksonville warehouse market study?
The submarket's own figure, with its publisher named. Ironmark reports that in Q2 2026 the West Side absorbed a net 767,000 square feet at 11.6% vacancy, and the Ocean Way submarket on the Northside a net 569,000 square feet at 12.2% vacancy 5. Cushman & Wakefield reports metro vacancy higher than a year earlier 6.
How active is SBA lending around Jacksonville?
The SBA's North Florida District called its fiscal 2025 lending a record. Duval County businesses received 269 loans under 7(a) and 504, a count up 19%, worth $177.1M, and St. Johns County received 132 loans, up 31%, worth $79.4M 10. These come from the district's announcement as reposted by a local chamber, not from an SBA dataset, and they show St. Johns' loan count growing faster than Duval's.
Does job growth support new projects in Jacksonville?
Not on the latest reading. BLS counts 803.8k nonfarm jobs in August 2026, preliminary, against 803.3k a year earlier 4. Separately, a secondary compilation of Census figures has the metro's population rising 11.19% between 2020 and 2025 2.
What does a market study for a Jacksonville retail center have to show?
That the pro forma rent and the lease-up schedule hold against the current market. Colliers reports an average retail asking rent of $25.77 per square foot and net absorption of minus 24,441 square feet in Q2 2026 9, so occupied retail space fell on net that quarter. A Jacksonville retail market study compares the subject's rent with that asking figure, explains any premium and names the anchors and pad users already within the trade area.
Financing a Jacksonville project? We start with the trade area and the pipeline.
We count the competition inside the subject's drive time, name the vacancy series we rely on and date every source. Send the address, the program and the lender.
Request a methodology briefingData sources and dates.
Every figure on this page is cited to a named, dated source. Where publishers measure Jacksonville differently, the page names the area and the period each one covers.
- U.S. Census Bureau, QuickFacts V2025: Duval County, Florida, Vintage 2025, accessed October 2026 (population April 1, 2020 and July 1, 2025; permits for calendar 2025).
- Wikipedia (citing Census), Florida statistical areas, accessed October 2026 (2020 census and 2025 estimate).
- FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Census permit data), FRED series JACK212BPPRIV, accessed October 2026 (September to December 2025 data).
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Over-the-year change in total nonfarm employment for large metropolitan areas, September 30, 2026 (August 2026 preliminary).
- Ironmark, Jacksonville Industrial Market Report - Q2 2026, 2026 (Q2 2026 data).
- Cushman & Wakefield, Jacksonville MarketBeats, 2026 (Q2 2026 data).
- RentCafe, August 2026 self storage report, August 2026 (deliveries due in 2026).
- Multi-Housing News (Yardi Matrix data), Top 10 Emerging Self Storage Markets of 2026, 2026 (December 2025 data).
- Colliers, Jacksonville Retail Market Report 2026 Q2, July 13, 2026 (Q2 2026 data).
- SBA North Florida District Office (reposted by Nassau County Chamber), SBA North Florida District Achieves Record-Breaking Lending for FY2025, December 2, 2025 (fiscal year 2025 data).
- U.S. Small Business Administration, Office of Capital Access, 7(a) and 504 FOIA loan-level data, loan status as of June 30, 2026 (approval fiscal years 2016 to 2025); retrieved October 16, 2026.
- U.S. Census Bureau, 2023 County Business Patterns (Census Data API), 2023 (employment for the pay period including March 12, 2023); retrieved October 16, 2026.
- U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, Detailed Tables (Census Data API), 2020 to 2024 five-year estimates; retrieved October 16, 2026.
- eCFR, 13 CFR 120.160, Loan conditions, current to October 7, 2026.
- U.S. Small Business Administration, SOP 50 10 8.1, Lender and Development Company Loan Programs, with Technical Policy Updates, effective October 1, 2026.
- Wikipedia, Jacksonville, Florida, accessed October 2026 (undated statement).
- Florida Attorney General, Impact Fees Increase, accessed October 2026 (2025 to 2026).
- Florida Office of Economic and Demographic Research (EDR), 2026 Local Option Tourist/Food and Beverage Tax Rates, September 4, 2026.
- NAI Hallmark (secondary), Jacksonville Northside Industrial Market Update: Q2 2026, Q2 2026.
- NAI Hallmark (secondary), St. Johns County Industrial Market Update, Q2 to Q3 2026.