Florida · Tampa
Tampa Feasibility Studies
The Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metro covers Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco and Hernando counties in Florida, 3,403,788 residents by the state's own estimate for April 2025 3. Growth is not the hard part of a Tampa file: apartment builders had 12,857 units under construction in Q2 2026 with deliveries over the prior four quarters running well ahead of absorption 7, and hotel occupancy fell to 63.3% in November 2025 8. A feasibility study here has to show which side of the bay the demand sits on and how much of the new supply the subject must beat.
Four counties around one bay, growing unevenly.
The Census Bureau's Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metro joins four Florida counties: Hillsborough, which holds the City of Tampa; Pinellas, the peninsula of St. Petersburg and Clearwater; Pasco to the north; and Hernando beyond it. The state's BEBR estimates, compiled by the Tallahassee-Leon Office of Economic Vitality, place the metro at 3,175,275 people in April 2020 and 3,403,788 in April 2025 3. Both are April figures from the state's own series, a different calendar from the Census Bureau's July estimates.
The metro total hides a split across the water. Hillsborough started the decade with 1,459,773 residents at the April 1, 2020 census base that QuickFacts reports 1. Pinellas had 948,563 residents in July 2025, and Florida Trend's March 2026 summary of the Census estimates named it among the Florida counties whose population fell over the year 2. True North Managed's March 2026 rental update places new multifamily growth in Downtown Tampa, Pasco County and Southeast Tampa 14, all on the Hillsborough side of the bay or north of it. A project in Riverview or Wesley Chapel can therefore point to arriving households; a project in Largo or Pinellas Park sells into a county that got smaller in the latest year.
The American Community Survey adds the age and wealth profile. Its 2020 to 2024 five-year American Community Survey estimate counts 672,215 residents aged 65 and over across the metro 18, a base that matters for medical office, senior housing and the service trades that follow retirees. The same 2020 to 2024 five-year American Community Survey estimate puts median household income at $74,392 and the median owner-occupied home value at $345,100 18. Insurance and the other statewide costs behind every Florida pro forma are on our Florida page.
| Measure | Value | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Metro population, state BEBR estimate | 3,175,275 | April 2020 | 3 |
| Metro population, state BEBR estimate | 3,403,788 | April 2025 | 3 |
| Hillsborough County population, census base | 1,459,773 | April 1, 2020 | 1 |
| Pinellas County population (a year of decline) | 948,563 | July 2025 | 2 |
| Areas of new multifamily growth | Downtown Tampa, Pasco County, Southeast Tampa | March 2026 | 14 |
Payrolls edged up, and personal income reaches past wages.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics counts 1,545.4 thousand nonfarm jobs in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metro in August 2025 and 1,559.6 thousand in August 2026 4. The later reading is preliminary and is subject to the agency's annual revision before a loan made on it closes, and the agency does not mark the change between the two Augusts as statistically significant 4.
Income in Tampa Bay is not only wages. The Bureau of Economic Analysis puts per capita personal income at $68,009 in calendar 2024 19, a measure that takes in pensions, investment income and transfers as well as pay. It is not interchangeable with the ACS household median, and a Tampa study names which of the two its demand model uses.
The bay draws the trade area, the interstates extend it.
Tampa Bay splits the metro in two. Across the water, Pinellas and Hillsborough are joined by the Howard Frankland Bridge on I-275, the Gandy Bridge and the Courtney Campbell Causeway, so a three-mile radius drawn around a site in Westshore or the Gateway area of St. Petersburg takes in water and neighborhoods a customer would need a bridge to reach. A Tampa trade area is drawn by drive time at the hours that matter to the use, with bridge congestion in it.
East of Tampa, I-4 runs through Plant City toward Lakeland, and Cushman & Wakefield's Q2 2026 commentary, as relayed by FL Business Press Releases, names that stretch as a Tampa industrial corridor 15. The interstate continues into Polk County, covered in our Lakeland-Winter Haven section, and on to the Orlando market. A warehouse or truck-service site between the two metros competes for tenants with both, so the study has to say which metro's labor pool and rent benchmark it is using and why, rather than borrowing whichever reads better.
North and south, I-75 carries growth through eastern Hillsborough and into Pasco around Wesley Chapel, while the Veterans Expressway and the Suncoast Parkway open western Pasco and Hernando to Tampa commuters and US 19 serves the older coastal strip. To the south, I-75 leads toward the Cape Coral-Fort Myers market; to the north it reaches Gainesville. Port Tampa Bay and Tampa International Airport have no dated statistic in the research.
The bridge approaches on either shore, I-4 at Plant City, the I-75 interchanges at Wesley Chapel and US 19 through Pasco and Hernando are where a traffic count would settle a frontage deal, and the research returned no FDOT figure for any of them.
Apartments absorbing a wave, hotels off a weak November, storage slowing.
Multifamily: more delivered than leased
Permits first. QuickFacts reports 8,696 housing units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2025 1. Across the metro, Acren counts 9,151 units permitted in buildings of two or more units and 8,771 in buildings of five or more units in 2025, a five-plus share of 38.56% of all permitted units, and five-plus permits 16.25% above 2024 5. Apartment permitting rose in 2025, so the buildings now under construction already have a successor cohort behind them.
Performance second. Yardi Matrix reports an average asking rent of $1,783 and occupancy of 93.3% through May 2026, occupancy 140 basis points lower than a year earlier 6. MMG Real Estate Advisors reports an effective rent of $1,713 and occupancy of 91.4% for Q2 2026, with 12,857 units under construction, 8,262 units delivered over the last four quarters and 4,912 units absorbed over the same period 7.
The 2020 to 2024 five-year American Community Survey estimate counts 426,933 renter households in the metro, paying a median gross rent of $1,628 18. The lease-up and concession tests a lender applies are on our multifamily feasibility page.
Hotels: a hard comparison month
CoStar's November 2025 release put Tampa hotel occupancy at 63.3%, a decline of 21.1% from November 2024, with an average daily rate of $154.11 and RevPAR of $97.57, down 27.1% on the year 8. The same release notes that the comparison month, November 2024, was inflated by post-Hurricane Milton demand 8. Two months later the slide was still visible: CoStar data reported by Hotel Management put Tampa's January 2026 occupancy at 68.2%, down 14.9% on the year and the largest drop among CoStar's Top 25 markets 23. County Business Patterns counts 454 establishments in the metro's hotel industry in 2023 (County Business Patterns), employing 14,262 employees in 2023 (County Business Patterns) 17. See our hotel feasibility page for the penetration method.
Self-storage: the pipeline is shrinking in the city
For the City of Tampa, StorageCafe counts 7,102,192 square feet of self-storage inventory, 284,382 square feet delivered in 2025 and 151,851 square feet expected in 2026, a pipeline it reports as 46.6% smaller than 2025's 9. Fewer new square feet arriving inside the city is the one storage trend the Tampa record shows; the suburban counties are not in it. Our self-storage page covers the competitor count.
Industrial
Matthews reports an average industrial asking rent of $12.86 per square foot in Q2 2026 10. The I-4 east corridor toward Plant City and Lakeland 15 is the one stretch the Q2 commentary singles out, and the same commentary reports that Lakeland took most of Tampa Bay's industrial leasing in the quarter 15.
Unpriced classes
Nothing in the record prices Tampa retail, office, senior housing, RV parks or fuel stations, and no list of hotel rooms under construction came back either.
| Class | Measure | Value | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Housing | Units permitted, Hillsborough County | 8,696 units | 2025 | 1 |
| Multifamily | Units permitted in buildings of two or more; five or more | 9,151 units; 8,771 units | 2025 | 5 |
| Multifamily | Five-plus share of all permits; five-plus change on 2024 | 38.56%; +16.25% | 2025 | 5 |
| Multifamily | Asking rent; occupancy (Yardi Matrix) | $1,783; 93.3% | Through May 2026 | 6 |
| Multifamily | Effective rent; occupancy (MMG) | $1,713; 91.4% | Q2 2026 | 7 |
| Multifamily | Under construction; delivered and absorbed over four quarters | 12,857 units; 8,262 units and 4,912 units | Q2 2026 | 7 |
| Hotel | Occupancy (change); ADR; RevPAR | 63.3% (-21.1%); $154.11; $97.57 | November 2025 | 8 |
| Self-storage, City of Tampa | Inventory; delivered 2025 | 7,102,192 sq ft; 284,382 sq ft | 2025 to August 2026 | 9 |
| Self-storage, City of Tampa | Due in 2026 (change on 2025) | 151,851 sq ft (-46.6%) | 2026 | 9 |
| Industrial | Asking rent | $12.86 per sq ft | Q2 2026 | 10 |
Hotel taxes are set county by county around the bay.
Around the bay the 2026 hotel tax splits in two: Hillsborough and Pinellas levy 6%, Pasco and Hernando 5%, in the state's table of local option rates 22. A Tampa Bay parcel's fees, zoning and capacity are confirmed through the written requests set out on our Florida page.
SBA volume, a St. Petersburg SBA lender and a Pinellas C-PACE closing.
SBA lending in the metro is deep. The agency's loan-level FOIA data show 5,143 loans under the 7(a) program approved in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, net of cancellations, and 504 debenture volume of $760.8 million approved in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, net of cancellations, for borrowers in the metro 16.
One of the most active SBA lenders in the state is based here. BayFirst National Bank of St. Petersburg made 1,182 Florida SBA 7(a) loans totalling $349.7 million over fiscal years 2021 to 2026, by SBALoansHQ's reading of SBA FOIA data 11. Those are statewide totals from a ranking site, not an SBA publication, but they put a high-volume SBA lender on the Pinellas side of the bay.
The SBA's South Florida District, the same district that serves Miami-Dade and Broward from its Miami office, maintains a Tampa-area office whose county list takes in Pasco, Hillsborough and Pinellas of this metro's four counties; Hernando is not on that list 12, so a Hernando borrower should confirm which district office will handle the file. The governing rule is 13 CFR 120.160(b): SBA may require professional appraisals, a survey, or a feasibility study. For a new business, or for a limited or special purpose property, the 504 program sets equity at 15%, and 7(a) underwriting tests coverage against a 1.15x floor. Our SBA 7(a) and 504 practice page lists the tests behind those figures. 2021
Of the late-2025 C-PACE closings the Florida Development Finance Corporation lists, the Tampa Bay one sits in Pinellas, the county whose population fell: Sunday Beach Club, closed December 15, 2025, with no amount published 13.
| Lender or channel | Figure | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| BayFirst National Bank, Florida SBA 7(a) | 1,182 loans; $349.7 million | Fiscal years 2021 to 2026 | 11 |
| SBA South Florida District, Tampa-area office | Lists Pasco, Hillsborough and Pinellas among its counties; Hernando not listed | Current | 12 |
| FDFC C-PACE closing, Pinellas County | Sunday Beach Club (amount not stated) | December 15, 2025 | 13 |
The research settled no program test around the bay.
Neither USDA rural eligibility nor Opportunity Zone or HUBZone status was settled for any part of Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco or Hernando in the research; our Florida page sets out how a parcel is checked against each of the three programs.
No published case names a Tampa Bay location.
No published case names a location in Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco or Hernando. The nearest match to this page's hotel question is our SBA 504 limited-service hotel case, set on an unnamed Florida leisure and interstate corridor, which tests competitive-set demand and debt coverage; the other Florida cases are described on our Florida page.
What a lender should confirm in a Tampa Bay file.
Which side of the bay
A drive-time trade area that accounts for the bridges at the use's peak hours, not a radius that crosses water.
Pinellas decline or Pasco arrivals
For a Pinellas subject, demand that does not rest on new residents, since the county shrank in the year to July 2025; for Pasco or Southeast Tampa, the new households the case relies on.
Deliveries ahead of absorption
A lease-up schedule that accounts for the units MMG counts under construction, given that the last four quarters delivered far more than they absorbed.
A city pipeline, not a county one
Whether the subject's case leans on the City of Tampa's shrinking 2026 storage pipeline when the site sits outside the city.
Tampa or Orlando benchmark on I-4
For an industrial or truck-service site east of Tampa, which metro's rent and labor pool the study uses, and why.
What a Tampa Bay credit committee asks first.
What does a feasibility study in Tampa, St. Petersburg or Clearwater have to show?
That the demand reaches the subject's side of the bay. The metro held 3,403,788 residents in April 2025 by the state's own estimate 3 and 1,559.6 thousand nonfarm jobs in August 2026, up from 1,545.4 thousand a year earlier 4, but the bay splits the market. A Westshore site and a Gateway site in St. Petersburg face each other across the water, joined only by the Howard Frankland Bridge, the Gandy Bridge and the Courtney Campbell Causeway, and a customer on one shore may never cross to the other.
Which occupancy rate should a Tampa apartment market study use, 93.3% or 91.4%?
Yardi Matrix put Tampa occupancy at 93.3% through May 2026, 140 basis points lower than a year before 6, and MMG Real Estate Advisors reported 91.4% for Q2 2026 7. The flow behind them matters more than the gap between them: MMG counts 8,262 units delivered over four quarters against 4,912 absorbed, with 12,857 still under construction 7.
Will the Tampa apartment pipeline shrink after the current wave?
The permit record says no. QuickFacts reports 8,696 housing units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2025 1, and across the metro Acren counts 8,771 units permitted in buildings of five or more units, a 38.56% share of all permits and 16.25% more five-plus permits than in 2024 5. Apartment permitting turned upward in 2025 while 12,857 units were still under construction 7. A Tampa multifamily study should therefore model the next cohort of competitors, not just the buildings open today.
Can a Tampa hotel feasibility study get past the November 2025 occupancy drop?
Yes, if it explains the base period. CoStar reported Tampa occupancy of 63.3% for November 2025, down 21.1% on the year, with a $154.11 average daily rate and $97.57 of RevPAR 8. CoStar's release also notes that the comparison month, November 2024, was inflated by demand after Hurricane Milton 8.
Is a market study in Pinellas County different from one in Pasco?
Yes, because the demand comes from different places. Pinellas held 948,563 residents in July 2025, and Florida Trend's review of the Census estimates listed it among the counties that lost population that year 2. Pasco, by contrast, is one of the areas True North Managed names as a center of new multifamily growth, alongside Downtown Tampa and Southeast Tampa 14.
What does a self-storage feasibility study in Tampa need beyond the city figures?
Its own count of suburban competitors. StorageCafe counts 7,102,192 square feet of inventory in the City of Tampa, 284,382 square feet delivered in 2025 and 151,851 square feet due in 2026, which it reports as 46.6% less than 2025 9. That is a slowing pipeline inside the city; the record has no comparable figures for Pinellas, Pasco, Hernando or unincorporated Hillsborough.
Which SBA office and lenders matter for an SBA feasibility study in Tampa?
The SBA's South Florida District runs a Tampa-area office whose county list includes Pasco, Hillsborough and Pinellas of this metro's four counties 12. On the lender side, BayFirst National Bank of St. Petersburg made 1,182 Florida SBA 7(a) loans totalling $349.7 million over fiscal years 2021 to 2026, by a ranking site's reading of SBA data 11.
Financing a project on Tampa Bay? Start with the side of the bay it serves.
We draw the trade area by drive time across the bridges, count the competing supply in the subject's own submarket and date every source. Send the address, the program and the lender.
Request a methodology briefingData sources and dates.
Every figure on this page is tied to a named, dated source. Where two Tampa series measure the same thing differently, both are shown with the universe each covers.
- U.S. Census Bureau, QuickFacts V2025: Hillsborough County, Florida, Vintage 2025; accessed October 2026 (April 1, 2020 base and calendar 2025 permits).
- Florida Trend (citing Census QuickFacts), Census Estimates: Ocala Up, Declines in Miami-Dade, Pinellas, Taylor, March 27, 2026 (population as of July 1, 2025).
- Tallahassee-Leon Office of Economic Vitality, Population Growth by Metro Area, January 2026 (state BEBR estimates for April 2020 and April 2025).
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Over-the-year change in total nonfarm employment for large metropolitan areas, September 30, 2026 (August 2025 and August 2026, the latter preliminary).
- Acren, Multifamily Building Permits by Metro, September 12, 2026 (calendar 2025 permits).
- Yardi Matrix, Tampa Multifamily Market Report - July 2026, July 2026 (data through May 2026).
- MMG Real Estate Advisors, Tampa Q2 2026 Market Report, page undated; accessed October 2026 (Q2 2026 data).
- CoStar, U.S. hotel performance for November 2025, December 19, 2025 (November 2025 data).
- StorageCafe; RentCafe, Tampa market page; August 2026 self storage report, August 2026 (2025 deliveries and 2026 pipeline). Monthly report also at https://www.rentcafe.com/blog/self-storage/self-storage-monthly-report/
- Matthews, Tampa, FL Industrial Market Report Q2 2026, page undated; accessed October 2026 (Q2 2026 data).
- SBALoansHQ (SBA FOIA data), Top SBA Lenders in Florida, page undated; accessed October 2026 (fiscal years 2021 to 2026).
- U.S. Small Business Administration, South Florida (district page), current as of October 2026.
- Florida Development Finance Corporation (FDFC), Closings, accessed October 2026 (closing of December 15, 2025).
- True North Managed, Tampa Rental Market Update - March 2026, March 2026.
- FL Business Press Releases (citing Cushman & Wakefield), Florida Commercial Real Estate Adapts to Slower Migration, Hybrid Demand, page undated; accessed October 2026 (Q2 2026 commentary).
- U.S. Small Business Administration, Office of Capital Access, 7(a) and 504 FOIA loan-level data, loan status as of June 30, 2026 (approval fiscal years 2016 to 2025); retrieved October 16, 2026.
- U.S. Census Bureau, 2023 County Business Patterns (Census Data API), 2023 (employment for the pay period including March 12, 2023); retrieved October 16, 2026.
- U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, Detailed Tables (Census Data API), 2020 to 2024 five-year estimates; retrieved October 16, 2026.
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income by County, Metro, and Other Areas (Regional table CAINC1), calendar year 2024; retrieved October 16, 2026.
- eCFR, 13 CFR 120.160, Loan conditions, current to October 7, 2026.
- U.S. Small Business Administration, SOP 50 10 8.1, Lender and Development Company Loan Programs, with Technical Policy Updates, effective October 1, 2026.
- Florida Office of Economic and Demographic Research (EDR), 2026 Local Option Tourist/Food and Beverage Tax Rates, September 4, 2026.
- Hotel Management (CoStar data) (secondary), CoStar: U.S. posts first RevPAR growth month since March 2025, January 2026 data.