Car Wash Feasibility Study Case: A New US 41 Express Tunnel in Port Charlotte, Florida, on an SBA 7(a) Loan

Feasibility Study Company prepares studies like this one for owners, developers and their lenders: a dated market read, a competitor census, a priced build and a coverage test that says how much debt a car wash can carry. This page runs that work for one hypothetical project, a new express tunnel in Port Charlotte, Florida, financed with an SBA 7(a) loan. Ask us to run the same work on your site.

The subject is generic: a single tunnel with free vacuums and unlimited plans on about 1.5 acres of commercial frontage along US 41, the Tamiami Trail. Every market figure is public and dated. Every model figure below is computed by the case engine from the inputs listed near the end, each of which carries either a source or the word assumption. The study belongs to our express car wash practice, the town sits in Florida, and the program rules are set out on our SBA 7(a) and 504 page.

Port Charlotte is a census-designated place, not a city, so its numbers come from the Census Bureau's place tables and the county's. The 2020 census counted 60,625 residents in the place, which the Bureau does not estimate between censuses [2]. The American Community Survey for 2020 to 2024 puts it at 27,888 households with a median household income of $63,844 in 2024 dollars [2]. The county's 90,542 households earn a median of $69,952 [1]. Both incomes sit below the national median of $80,734 [3].

An older population is a mixed signal for a membership wash. Retired households drive less in the commute peak, and fixed incomes are sensitive to a monthly charge. They also wash when it suits them, on weekdays, which spreads tunnel use across the day rather than stacking it into weekend afternoons. The register table below counts the county's residents aged 65 and over, which shows the scale of that group. No source measured wash frequency by age in this market, so the model draws no benefit from the age profile and treats it as neutral.

Growth is the stronger demand signal, and the county documents where it is landing. Its April 2025 report put the population at 224,147 in February 2025, up 5.5% from 212,424 in April 2024 and 11% higher than in June 2023 [4]. The same report found that the West Port area and Babcock Ranch accounted for 82% of all residential construction since 2024, and expected Mid-County to add 4,400 units [4]. The county budgeted $21,003,317 for its Murdock Village redevelopment fund in FY2025-26, against $6,043,327 for Charlotte Harbor and $2,181,274 for Parkside [6]. New homes on the west side of Port Charlotte put new cars on US 41.

The Census Bureau's housing counts agree on direction. The county issued 3,015 building permits in 2025 and held 131,960 housing units on July 1, 2025 [1]. Employment is smaller than the population would suggest, because so many residents are retired: County Business Patterns counted 44,163 employees at 4,601 employer establishments in 2023 [1]. Major employers and truck volumes were not found, so the study does not lean on a commuter or fleet market.

Visitors add a seasonal layer. Spring-training venues in Port Charlotte, North Port and Sarasota drew crowds in February and March of the 2026 season [5], though the source gives no wash-relevant measure of them. The county budgeted $12,495,000 for its Tourist Development Trust Fund in FY2025-26 and $11,135,000 for its fourth and fifth cent tourist tax [6]. Winter residents and visitors likely lift single-wash sales in the first months of the year, but monthly wash volume was not found, so the model holds volume level across the year.

The subject is a hypothetical pad of about 1.5 acres with frontage on US 41, the Tamiami Trail, in unincorporated Port Charlotte. Land is carried at $1,100,000, a round assumption, not the price of any parcel: the reasoning in the inputs table starts from the appraiser's land value on the Tommy's lot and discounts it for a pad away from the Murdock Circle node. An appraisal and an executed contract set the value, and both are conditions.

Zoning is the first open item. The Tommy's lot is zoned CG, commercial general, and a tunnel was built on it in 2022 [11], which shows a car wash can be approved in that district. It does not show whether the use is permitted by right or needs a conditional approval, and the use table was not read for this study. Neither the approval path nor a typical timeline was found, so a written zoning verification for the actual pad is a condition.

Flood is the second. The Tommy's lot is split between Zone AE and Zone X on a FEMA panel effective December 15, 2022 [11]. A lot that straddles a special flood hazard area needs the tunnel pit, equipment room and pay stations set above base flood elevation or floodproofed, and the lender needs flood insurance on any building in Zone AE. The county's FY25 budget workshop still carried a Hurricane Ian return-to-roll item [10], a reminder that storm losses here are recent. Until the pad's zone is known, the soft-cost contingency and the insurance line are placeholders.

Traffic is the third. No Florida Department of Transportation station or annual average daily traffic count for the stretch of US 41 in question was found in the research. The only counts available came from a seller's marketing material for a listed property, which this study does not use. Traffic is therefore a lender condition: the state count, its station and year for the pad's frontage, and a check of turning access for cars entering the stacking lane from the highway.

Utilities are the fourth. The provider, capacity and connection charge for the pad were not confirmed, and the electric and gas providers were not identified. A tunnel discharges wash water, so sewer capacity and any pretreatment or reclaim requirement matter more than they would for a store.

Florida taxes real property on the appraiser's value, so the model does not apply the rate to cost. It applies an assumed combined rate of 1.70% to an assumed taxable value of $3,000,000. The county-levied rates above are sourced; the school and district rates are not, and the gap is covered by an allowance explained in the inputs table. The 2020 impact fee study is six years old, so the current adopted fee, and whether the county charges a car wash at the retail rate, are conditions [9].

Three cost lines move with revenue and two do not. Labor and chemicals run at 29.0% of revenue, and utilities, repairs, card processing, software and marketing at 19.0%. The labor and chemicals ratio rests on the only audited multi-site profit and loss statement in the industry; the other-costs ratio is a judgement for a single owned site, explained in the inputs table. A 5.0% allowance for management stands in for the owner's time or a franchise fee.

Insurance is where Port Charlotte differs from an inland town. The model starts at $65,000 for property, wind, flood and liability cover and raises it 5.0% a year. That is a placeholder, not a quote. The nearest tunnel's lot is partly in Zone AE [11], and a wash building full of electrical equipment on a coastal corridor will be priced by wind and flood carriers, not by a general rate card. The bound quote is a condition, and a large miss on this line moves coverage more than a small miss on any ratio.

Property tax is set at $3,000,000 of taxable value times 1.70%. The sourced part of the rate is the county's: 6.0394 mills of countywide operating millage, adopted 3.89% above the rollback rate [6], within a county-levied series that ended at 11.6998 mills [8]. The school and district levies were not found, and they are not small, so the model carries an allowance for them. The Tommy's lot shows how Florida's assessment works on a newer tunnel: a 2026 county taxable value below its just value [11].

The result is a net operating income margin of 38.2% in Year 3. That is lower than a large chain earns before rent, which is deliberate. A single tunnel has no purchasing scale, and a crowded corridor tends to push spending into marketing and app promotions to hold members.

The rules are those of SOP 50 10 8.1 with Technical Policy Updates, effective October 1, 2026 [31]. A start-up borrower injects at least 10%, and its projections have two years to reach 1.15x coverage, so the test falls on Year 2. Land, building and site work are more than half of the uses, so the loan runs 25 years. The rate is Prime, 7.00% on October 9, 2026 [33], plus the largest variable spread SBA allows for a loan of this size, 10.00% in all; a lender may price lower, and the rate is set at closing. SBA guarantees 75.0% of a loan this size [30].

The request fails before coverage is even tested. At 10.0% equity the loan would be $5,214,748, above the $5 million 7(a) maximum. A sponsor in that position usually looks to pair 7(a) with a 504 loan or a conventional piece, but no structure helps if the tunnel's income cannot cover the payments, and here it cannot: Year 2 coverage on the full request is 0.77x. The restructured loan of $3,510,956 is well inside the limit.

The guaranty fee for fiscal 2027 is charged on the guaranteed portion and added to project cost [32]. The fee waiver for rural borrowers stops at $700,000, so it cannot apply to a loan of this size whatever the county's rural status, which was not checked. SBA's list of special purpose properties names car wash businesses, and defines the class as a limited-market property with a unique physical design, special construction materials, or a layout that restricts its utility to the use for which it was built [31]. That shapes the appraisal: the lender will want an appraiser who has valued tunnels before. Owner eligibility is tested at the lender's eligibility review under the SOP in force at approval, and the program's citizenship and residency requirements were rewritten by a notice effective March 1, 2026 [35].

The study is the lender's tool here, not a program checkpoint: 13 CFR 120.160(b): SBA may require professional appraisals, a survey, or a feasibility study [34]. For a start-up wash in a corridor with five rivals, the study's job is to say how much debt the member base supports before the lender has to find out from the payment history.

A 7(a) start-up is tested on projections against 1.15x, and this study applies the test in Year 2, the last year the projection has to get there.

As proposed, the sponsor puts in $579,416, 10.0% of a $5,794,165 project, and asks for $5,214,748. The request fails twice. The loan is over the 7(a) limit, and annual debt service of $568,637 is covered 0.77x in Year 2 and 0.93x in Year 3. Even in Year 5 the request covers only 1.00x. It meets neither the program limit nor the coverage floor.

As restructured, the engine holds the project and asks how much debt Year 2 income will carry at the floor. The answer is $3,510,956, with debt service of $382,849 a year, which leaves the sponsor to fund 38.9% of cost, $2,235,290. Coverage is then 1.15x in Year 2, 1.38x in Year 3 and 1.49x in Year 5. The program's injection rule is met many times over; it is the corridor's income that sets the equity.

That is a negative answer to the request and a conditional answer to the project. The restructured case is a model result, not a recommendation and not a forecast of any lender's decision: on these inputs, a sponsor with $2,235,290 to commit and the liquidity to carry Year 1 would meet the coverage floor in the test year. A sponsor without it should look for a cheaper pad, a smaller building, or a less crowded road, because a larger loan on this corridor depends on taking members from five established tunnels.

If you are weighing a tunnel on a corridor like this one, ask Feasibility Study Company for a study of your own site. The work is the same as above: the competitor census, the priced build and the coverage test, written so that a lender can read each step.

The matrix moves the two inputs that set plan revenue, members by up to a fifth each way and the blended price by up to about a sixth, and reads coverage in Year 2, the test year. On the restructured loan, coverage ranges from 0.84x to 1.52x. The centre cell sits on the floor by construction, so every cell where both members and price fall below plan fails.

That is the honest shape of a loan sized to the floor in the test year: it has no spare coverage in Year 2, and it relies on Year 3 for its margin. The corner where both inputs fall is the one to fear in Port Charlotte. If ModWash's two sites and Bubble Down's opening push plan prices down toward the entry tier of the posted menus while the subject signs fewer members, Year 2 coverage drops toward 0.84x. A lender who wants a margin in the test year needs more equity than the restructure shows, or an interest reserve that covers the shortfall.

• Member capture. At least five tunnels already sell plans [12][13][14][16][17]. If the subject signs members at the pace of a first-year site in an open market rather than a crowded one, the ramp is too slow and Year 2 coverage misses.
• A price war. ModWash showed that it will open with a discounted first month [15], and Bubble Down is preparing its own opening [18]. Launch discounts from two newcomers could hold the market's blended price down for a year or more.
• Pipeline. Bubble Down has posted prices for a US 41 site whose date has slipped to 2027 [18]. When it opens, it competes for the same corridor drivers, and no county permit record was found to show what else is coming.
• Flood and wind. The nearest tunnel's lot is partly in Zone AE [11]. An adverse zone adds elevation work, mandatory flood cover and a smaller appraisal. Insurance is a placeholder until quoted.
• Tax uncertainty. Countywide operating millage was set above the rollback rate for FY2025-26 [6], and the school and district rates were not found. The tax line could be higher than modelled.
• Appraisal gap. The Tommy's tunnel is carried on the 2026 roll at a just value far below the cost of building a new one [11]. Special purpose collateral narrows the lender's recovery if the business fails.
• Construction costs. A tunnel is steel and aluminum heavy, and those prices rose sharply into 2026 [28]; the figures are in the inputs table. A bid priced late in a rising market can exceed the budget.
• Program change. SBA rewrote its citizenship and residency requirements in a notice effective March 1, 2026 [35], and a new SOP took effect on October 1 [31]. A loan approved later should be rechecked against the rules in force.

The special purpose property note explains why lenders treat car washes as limited-market collateral, and the SOP 50 10 8.1 note covers the October 2026 rule changes.