Tennessee Feasibility Studies

The Vintage 2024 release recorded net domestic migration of 48,700 and net international migration of 27,650 for the year to July 2024 ⁴, a different vintage from the components for the year to July 2025 in the table. The State Data Center reports that net domestic migration slipped for a third straight year from its 2022 record and that net international migration fell sharply in 2025 ².

Jobs tell a steadier story. Total nonfarm employment stood at 3,384.3 thousand in August 2026 on a preliminary, seasonally adjusted basis, up from 3,367.9 thousand a year earlier, a gain of 16.4k ⁵. In the state labor department's sector detail, health care and social assistance added 8,100 jobs over the year and leisure and hospitality 6,900 ⁶. Administrative, support and waste services added 7,100 jobs over the year and state government added 5,300, while financial activities shed 4,600 ⁶. Labor force participation was 59.2% in August 2026 ⁶.

For a statewide employer figure the record offers an aggregator's estimate of about 40,598 Walmart employees in Tennessee, a source the research rates as low reliability ⁷; the employer tables that carry dates sit in the Chattanooga, Knoxville, Tri-Cities and Jackson sections below.

Household income and age

Tennessee's median household income was $69,595 in the 2020 to 2024 five-year American Community Survey estimate, and the state counted 1,205,947 residents aged 65 and over in the same 2020 to 2024 five-year American Community Survey estimate ⁴². Nursing homes and home care organizations serving the older group remain under the Certificate of Need rules set out below ¹⁵.

The SBA's Tennessee District Office counted 1,065 loans approved under 7(a) and 504 combined in FY2025 ⁸; a split of that count between the two programs was not found. SBA's loan-level files reach further back: 5,321 loans for Tennessee projects approved in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, net of cancellations, under the 7(a) program, for $3,238.2 million ¹¹. 504 debentures for Tennessee projects approved in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, net of cancellations, came to $274.0 million ¹¹.

Pinnacle Financial Partners announced in October 2025 that it had again been named the No. 1 SBA lender in Tennessee ¹⁰, and a secondary tally of top SBA lenders puts its FY2025 7(a) volume at $44.2M, without stating a geography ⁹. The district office's own FY2025 awards went by category: Paragon Bank of Memphis was the top Tennessee-based 7(a) lender by dollars; First Farmers & Merchants of Columbia tied with Citizens Bank of Tennessee of Elizabethton by number of loans; APEX Bank led rural 7(a) lending by dollars; and Live Oak Banking Co. was named the district's Rural Lender of the Year ⁸.

Our SBA 7(a) and 504 practice page carries the program tests; SBA may require a feasibility study under 13 CFR 120.160(b): SBA may require professional appraisals, a survey, or a feasibility study ⁷⁵.

TDEC: decentralized sewer systems

A bill on failing wastewater systems, reported on April 7, 2026 as passed by the legislature, sets new rules for developer-built decentralized systems, gives TDEC until July 31, 2027 to write them, and lets their permits lapse after 12 months ²⁶.

Health Facilities Commission: Certificate of Need, category by category

Certificate of Need still covers hospitals, nursing homes and several other facility types, but the list is shrinking on a fixed timetable. The Health Facilities Commission's current categories include hospitals, nursing homes, ambulatory surgical treatment centers, home care organizations, rehabilitation facilities and satellite emergency and inpatient facilities ¹⁵. On December 1, 2025, the requirement ended for intellectual disability habilitation facilities, burn units, NICUs, and MRI and PET services ¹⁵. Public Chapter 985 of 2024, with exemptions effective July 1, 2025, exempted hospital-run free-standing emergency departments within 10 miles of their main campus and at least 10 miles from another hospital or such department, and counties with no licensed acute care hospital, with listed exceptions such as nursing homes, home care and rehabilitation ¹⁶. A secondary consultancy reports that ambulatory surgical treatment centers leave the program on December 1, 2027, under new licensure requirements ¹⁷. SB 1369, enacted in the 2026 session, repeals the requirement for satellite emergency departments and cardiac catheterization on July 1, 2028, and for acute care hospitals on July 1, 2030, replacing it with licensure carrying TennCare, charity care and payor-mix conditions ¹⁸.

A memory care licensing category or unit threshold was not found. Our assisted living and memory care and medical office and ASC pages set out the demand method.

The Short-Term Rental Unit Act and the permits on top of it

The Short-Term Rental Unit Act, effective May 17, 2018, partly preempts local rules: it protects short-term rentals that predate a local ordinance, and that protection ends on sale or transfer, after 30 continuous months of non-use or after 3 violations ²⁵. Local permits sit on top of the Act; the Sevier County section below sets out the county and Gatlinburg regimes. A state hotel occupancy tax and typical local hotel tax rates were not found, and neither was licensing for campgrounds and RV parks.

TABC: package stores, grocery wine, servers and hemp

Tennessee caps how many retail package store interests one owner may hold, with a lower cap in municipalities that allow few stores ²¹; a market in package store licence transfers, or a typical acquisition cost, was not found. Under the state alcohol code, municipalities may not limit the number of retail food store wine licences ²², which matters to any grocery or convenience store study counting on wine sales. Liquor server permits issued from January 1, 2025 run for two years, replacing the older longer term ²³. TABC's permanent rules for hemp-derived cannabinoid products took effect on June 9, 2026, and a TABC licence is needed to sell them after June 30, 2026 ²⁴.

Human Services: child care in tiers

The Department of Human Services licenses child care in tiers by the number of children in care: family child care homes for 5 to 7 children, group child care homes for 8 to 12 and child care centers for 13 or more, with operations caring for 4 or fewer eligible for voluntary registration rather than licensing ¹⁹. Ratios are less settled: a secondary site publishes a ratio table by age group ²⁰, other sites disagree, and no primary-source table was found.

TVA's system reached a peak of 32,909 MW during Winter Storm Fern in January 2026 ³³. ThinkTennessee's July 2026 report puts TVA's net summer capacity at 38,228 MW and counts 2,177.5 MW of Tennessee data center demand that is planned, under construction or operating ³⁴. TVA's chief executive has said TVA is projecting data center growth in its region to double by 2030 ³³.

The cost of new load is changing. TVA's new standard data center rate takes effect on October 1, 2026, with a Capacity Commitment Charge on new or expanding loads above 5 MW and an average all-in billing impact of about 10% phased in over three fiscal years ³⁵. In February 2026 TVA wrote to more than 150 local power companies warning of unpredictable large-load growth and possible changes to rate classes ³⁶. No public disclosure of TVA's large-load interconnection queue was found, nor were limits on water allocation; TACIR's sewer counts open this page.

Census County Business Patterns counted 1,454 establishments in 2023 (County Business Patterns) in the hotels and motels industry, casino hotels excluded, employing 33,348 employees in 2023 (County Business Patterns) ⁴¹.

For assisted care living facilities and residential homes for the aged, which are licensed rather than on the Certificate of Need list, the Health Facilities Commission publishes quarterly full bed reports, the latest for July 2026; they give licensed beds, not occupancy, and the research did not extract the counts ⁷⁷.

On housing, the state counted 933,708 renter households, a median gross rent of $1,189 for renter-occupied units paying cash rent and a median value of owner-occupied homes of $286,700 in the 2020 to 2024 five-year American Community Survey estimate ⁴².

Knox County reached 511,453 residents on July 1, 2025, up from an estimates base of 478,925 in April 2020 ⁵², and authorized 5,013 new private housing units in 2025 ⁵². Nonfarm employment in the Knoxville metro was 463.6 thousand in November 2025 ⁵³.

The employer base, from eleven-county chamber data for 2023 to 2024, is led by Covenant Health with 11,963 employees and the University of Tennessee, Knoxville with 11,197, a year-over-year gain of 1,898 at the university ⁵¹. Walmart counted 6,614 in the region ⁵¹. The university's enrollment reached a record 38,728 in 2024 to 2025 ⁵¹.

Matthews counted 2,980 multifamily units under construction in Knoxville in Q2 2026 ⁵⁴; MMG Real Estate Advisors counted 2,827 in the same quarter ⁵⁵. The hotel market is measured by Visit Knoxville from STR data: Knox County hotels ran 65.8% occupancy, a $126.40 average daily rate and $83.14 RevPAR, selling 1,771,785 room nights, from January to September 2025 ⁵⁶. Visit Knoxville's annual report, using CoStar data, describes occupancy as flat for the fiscal year to June 2026 ⁵⁷.

Sevier County held 101,342 residents on July 1, 2025, against an estimates base of 98,677 in April 2020, and authorized 1,139 new private housing units in 2025 ⁶¹. Those figures understate the market, because demand for rooms, cabins, restaurants and attractions in Pigeon Forge and Gatlinburg comes from visitors to the Smoky Mountains rather than from residents. The research found no official hotel occupancy, ADR or RevPAR series for the county, only secondary market reports.

New supply is arriving in Pigeon Forge. Drury Plaza Pigeon Forge opened with 252 rooms in August 2025, and Staybridge Suites Pigeon Forge opened on March 20, 2026, by a secondary listing of new hotels ⁶². Short-term rental supply runs under permits: since January 1, 2024, unincorporated Sevier County, outside Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge, Sevierville and Pittman Center, has required an annual short-term rental unit permit, and Gatlinburg requires an annual Tourist Residency Permit ⁶³, on top of the state Short-Term Rental Unit Act's legacy protections ²⁵.

Two permit regimes, one for the unincorporated county and one for Gatlinburg, mean that a cabin's competitive set can sit under different rules on either side of a city line. Our Townsend cabin resort case, set in unincorporated Blount County outside Townsend, shows how a study measures a mountain rental market when the data vendors disagree.

Montgomery County held 249,935 residents on July 1, 2025, up from an estimates base of 220,012 in April 2020 ⁷⁰, and authorized 2,723 new private housing units in 2025 ⁷⁰. Fort Campbell anchors the market, and the county's economic development council reports a steady monthly flow of soldiers separating from the post ⁶⁸.

The industrial story is large and partly unconfirmed. On December 15, 2025 the county announced Korea Zinc's $6.6 billion project at the former Nyrstar site on Moore Road, described as the largest foreign direct investment announced in the state, with new and retained jobs and a payment-in-lieu-of-tax incentive ⁶⁸. A 2024 report valued LG Chem's cathode plant at $3.2 billion with 860 jobs and a target of the third quarter of 2025, and also listed a Hankook tire expansion with the same target ⁶⁹; the current status of both was not found.

Montgomery County levies an adequate facilities tax on new residential development for school facilities ⁷¹; the research holds no dated rate. Current headcounts for Fort Campbell, Austin Peay and the school system were not found.

Blount County and the Smoky Mountains. The cabin resort outside Townsend tests whether a small resort of new A-frame cabins on acreage in unincorporated Blount County can carry SBA 504 debt. It works through park visitation that has softened while county visitor spending rose, two short-term rental data vendors that disagree on occupancy, and a large competing resort due to open nearby. It concludes that the market supports the product at upper-middle performance, and that the loan should be sized to median-plus RevPAR rather than to the top quartile, which leaves the sponsor carrying a much larger share of the cost than the structure it tests first.

Where the other markets stand. No published case names a location in Nashville, Memphis, Chattanooga, the Tri-Cities, Clarksville or Jackson. The Townsend case does reach two other sections of this page by reference: it sets Pigeon Forge's rental market beside Townsend's as a comparison, and it cites passenger traffic at the Knoxville airport among its demand indicators.