North Carolina · Raleigh-Durham
Raleigh-Durham Feasibility Studies
Raleigh-Cary added 20,300 payroll jobs between June 2025 and June 2026 4, and Wake County closed its 2025 hotel year at 67.7% occupancy and a $137.55 average daily rate 11. The 2,484,238 residents the Raleigh-Durham-Cary combined statistical area counted in 2025 1 include people in counties beyond this page's seven: Wake, Johnston, Franklin, Durham, Orange, Chatham and Person.
One region, three census geographies, and permits weighted to the Raleigh side.
The federal tables describe the Triangle three ways, and each answers a different question. The Raleigh-Durham-Cary combined statistical area held 2,484,238 people in 2025, up from 2,242,332 in 2020 1, and its total takes in counties outside the seven this page covers. Within it, the Raleigh-Cary metropolitan area of Wake, Johnston and Franklin counties reached 1,595,720 residents in 2025, 12.9% above its 2020 base as calculated from City Population's figures 2. The Durham-Chapel Hill metropolitan area of Chatham, Durham, Orange and Person counties stood at 625,485 on July 1, 2025, against 618,157 a year before 3. The combined area's 2020 and 2025 figures are both as City Population tabulates them; the Durham-Chapel Hill pair are two July estimates a year apart. Those seven counties are the ones this page covers.
Permits show where the building went. Calculated from FRED's twelve monthly Census building permit counts for 2025, not seasonally adjusted, the year gives 17,690 units for Raleigh-Cary 5 and 4,697 for Durham-Chapel Hill 6, or 22,387 for the pair 56. Most of the region's new homes were authorized on the Raleigh side. The series counts houses and apartments together and does not name the issuing town or county, so the Wake suburbs and the Johnston County towns are inside the Raleigh total without being separable from it.
Across the seven counties, the 2020 to 2024 five-year American Community Survey estimate counts 822,551 households, with 285,635 renter households among them 19; this page does not split either count between the two metros.
| Measure | Value | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh-Durham-Cary combined statistical area population | 2,484,238 | 2025 | 1 |
| Combined statistical area population, census base | 2,242,332 | 2020 | 1 |
| Raleigh-Cary MSA population; change since 2020 (calculated from City Population figures) | 1,595,720; +12.9% | 2025 | 2 |
| Durham-Chapel Hill MSA population (prior year) | 625,485 (618,157) | July 1, 2025 (2024) | 3 |
| Housing units permitted, Raleigh-Cary (calculated from FRED monthly counts) | 17,690 | 2025 | 5 |
| Housing units permitted, Durham-Chapel Hill (calculated from FRED monthly counts) | 4,697 | 2025 | 6 |
| Housing units permitted, both metros (calculated from FRED monthly counts) | 22,387 | 2025 | 56 |
Raleigh-Cary hiring, a plant announced in Benson and a grant cancelled in Durham.
Raleigh-Cary payrolls reached 788,600 in June 2026, up 20,300 from the 768,300 of June 2025 4. The series is the Raleigh-Cary metro: Wake, Johnston and Franklin counties. Income reaches all seven counties: per capita personal income, a mean over residents, was $78,076 in calendar 2024, and total personal income was $170,402.9 million in calendar 2024 17.
Two 2026 project stories sit in the record. Vulcan Elements' rare-earth magnet plant in Benson, Johnston County, was reported with $918.1 million of announced investment and 1,000 jobs, and the report does not say whether construction has begun or when hiring starts 7. In Durham County, Carolina Journal reported that the state's Economic Investment Committee terminated the JDIG award for a $125 million project of Jaguar Gene Therapy and Advance Medicine Partners on February 24, 2026 8. Each is cited here at the stage its source reports.
Tourism is the best-published part of the Triangle economy, and Wake County publishes it. The county drew 19.1 million visitors in 2025, who spent $3.43 billion, and tourism supported 26,635 jobs 9. Event sales during 2025 booked 364 future events 10 that secured more than 263,000 room nights 10; the report as relayed gives no years for the events themselves.
| Measure | Value | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raleigh-Cary nonfarm employment | 768,300 to 788,600 (+20,300) | June 2025 to June 2026 | 4 |
| Vulcan Elements, Benson, announced investment | $918.1 million (status not stated) | Reported 2026 | 7 |
| Durham County project, JDIG award terminated | $125 million | February 24, 2026 | 8 |
| Wake County visitors; visitor spending | 19.1 million; $3.43 billion | 2025 | 9 |
| Wake County tourism jobs | 26,635 | 2025 | 9 |
| Future events booked; room nights secured | 364 events; more than 263,000 | Booked in 2025 | 10 |
Downtown Durham, North Hills, Hub RTP and Brier Creek: the places the record names.
The Triangle's commercial record locates demand by named district. TenantBase names downtown Durham, North Hills in Raleigh and Hub RTP as the areas where tenant activity gathered in Q1 2026 15, and the Wake County tourism report, as ABC11 relays it, points to Brier Creek for hotel traffic and restaurant growth 10. Brier Creek is the one place the record ties to hotels, so a hotel there can cite it directly; a hotel, restaurant or office site elsewhere in the seven counties finds no named district in this record.
The Greensboro, Winston-Salem and High Point, Asheville and Fayetteville records are set out on the state page, and our Nashville page will cover that Tennessee market.
Yardi's March occupancy, Wake County's hotel year and Colliers' retail quarter.
Multifamily: Yardi's Raleigh market
Yardi Matrix put stabilized occupancy in its Raleigh multifamily market at 93.1% in March 2026, down 70 basis points, and counted an average asking rent of $1,539 in April 2026 and 2,157 units delivered between January and April 2026 13. The occupancy reading is for March and the deliveries cover January to April; Yardi reports both, and neither figure says how many of the new units have leased. The 17,690 Raleigh-Cary housing units calculated from FRED's 2025 permit counts 5 include houses, so they show how much building the Raleigh side authorized without measuring the apartment pipeline; the research found no count of apartments under construction for the Triangle, though our agency multifamily case cites a Yardi Matrix count of units underway in Raleigh-Durham.
Hotels: Wake County's year
In 2025, Wake County's hotel occupancy was 67.7% and its average daily rate $137.55 11. Visit Raleigh reports 2025 changes of minus 2.9% for occupancy and plus 1.4% for the average daily rate, without stating the comparison base 11. RevPAR for January to September 2025 was $93.10 12; the full-year figure was not found. County Business Patterns counted 8,935 employees in hotels (except casino hotels) and motels across the seven counties in 2023 18, the one lodging measure on this page that reaches Durham, Orange, Johnston and the outer counties. The hotel year on this page is Wake's alone, from Wake's tourism office; for a hotel feasibility study in any of the other six counties, the research gathered no county hotel series.
Retail: Colliers' Q2 2026 quarter
Colliers reports retail asking rent of $24.80 per sq ft NNN for Raleigh-Durham in Q2 2026, with 537,600 sq ft under construction and vacancy below 3% in the same quarter 14. For retail sites, Colliers gives these three readings for its Raleigh-Durham market rather than for any one county.
Senior housing: a partial establishment count
In the 2020 to 2024 five-year American Community Survey estimate, 297,926 residents aged 65 and over lived in the seven counties 19. County Business Patterns counted 116 establishments in 2023 in the County Business Patterns category for assisted living facilities for the elderly 18. That category only partly matches the class, so the count frames an assisted living market without listing its competitors. Beyond that establishment count, the research found no Triangle senior housing supply series.
| Class | Measure | Value | Date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multifamily | Stabilized occupancy (change as reported) | 93.1% (-70 bps) | March 2026 | 13 |
| Multifamily | Average asking rent | $1,539 | April 2026 | 13 |
| Multifamily | Units delivered | 2,157 | January to April 2026 | 13 |
| Hotel, Wake County | Occupancy; average daily rate | 67.7%; $137.55 | 2025 | 11 |
| Hotel, Wake County | RevPAR, year to date | $93.10 | January to September 2025 | 12 |
| Retail | Asking rent; under construction | $24.80 per sq ft NNN; 537,600 sq ft | Q2 2026 | 14 |
Wake County's occupancy tax is the one local levy on record.
Wake County collected $41,460,586 in occupancy tax in 2025 11, a sum the tourism report publishes without the rate behind it, so it measures collections rather than the levy a new room will carry. It is the one county levy in the Triangle record; Durham, Orange and Johnston appear in it with no occupancy tax figure at all. The collections figure is for calendar 2025 and comes from the same Visit Raleigh report as the county's hotel year, so the two share a period.
The state page's site tests take up the sewer plant behind a parcel's line and the state licences that come ahead of a town's approval.
Chantal put Durham and Orange counties on the disaster list in 2025.
After Tropical Depression Chantal, the SBA declared an administrative disaster for North Carolina on July 25, 2025, naming Durham and Orange counties as the primary counties 16; the Federal Register carried the notice on July 30, 2025. Physical damage loan applications were due by September 23, 2025, and economic injury applications by April 27, 2026 16. Both counties named sit in the Durham-Chapel Hill metro, inland rather than on the coast, so a lender underwriting a new project there has reason to ask whether the site, its access road or its utility lines were affected. The hazards section of our state page sets this declaration beside the other federal declarations it records.
Seven counties' SBA credit, counted where the project is built.
For projects in the seven counties, the SBA's loan-level FOIA files show $1,612.1 million of 7(a) credit and $160.7 million of 504 debentures, each approved in fiscal years 2016 to 2025, net of cancellations 20. SBA's power to require a study sits in 13 CFR 120.160(b): SBA may require professional appraisals, a survey, or a feasibility study 21, and for debt service coverage its SOP gives the standard 7(a) figure as 1.15x, with the basis given as historical and/or projected, with 1:1 global coverage; start-ups reach 1.15x within two years 22.
A Triangle delivery figure in the apartment case, and a pork plant on the coastal plain.
The agency multifamily case reports a year-over-year drop in Triangle apartment deliveries in the first quarter of 2026, and it puts its own mid-rise in a high-growth suburban submarket of the Charlotte-Raleigh growth corridor without naming the submarket. The corridor's other end, with its apartment pipeline and rent readings, is on our Charlotte page.
The pork processing case is a composite set in a rural county of the eastern North Carolina coastal plain, financed under USDA's Business and Industry guarantee, whose terms are on our USDA Rural Development practice page. Whether a Triangle parcel is rural for that program, or sits in an Opportunity Zone or HUBZone tract, is left open by the research. No published case names a site in Wake, Johnston, Franklin, Durham, Orange, Chatham or Person, and the full North Carolina case list is on the state page.
- Agency multifamily, Charlotte-Raleigh growth corridorLease-up counted against the units delivering in its own window.
- Pork processing plant, eastern North Carolina coastal plain (USDA B&I)Supply security, the FSIS inspection gate and B&I coverage for a new operating business.
Before a Triangle loan closes: leased units, Wake RevPAR, the room tax, districts, Benson, Chantal and retail openings.
Leased units among the 2,157
For an apartment project, how many of the units Yardi Matrix counted delivered in its Raleigh market from January to April 2026 had leased by the study date, which the report does not say 13.
Wake RevPAR past September
For a Wake hotel, a full-year 2025 RevPAR from the property's competitive set, since the Visit Raleigh figure on record, $93.10, covers January to September only 12.
The rate behind Wake's $41,460,586
For a Wake hotel or short-term rental, the occupancy tax rate the county applies, which the record does not give beside the 2025 collections 11.
Brier Creek and the three TenantBase districts
For a Wake hotel or restaurant, whether the site is in the district the tourism report ties to hotel traffic, or in one of the office districts TenantBase names.
Benson's start and hiring dates
For a Johnston County project near Benson, when the plant starts building and hiring, since the report of its announced investment gives no construction status.
Chantal damage in Durham and Orange
Whether the site, its access road or its utilities were affected in July 2025, and how the answer enters the insurance and site budget.
Which of the 537,600 square feet opens near the subject
For a retail center, the projects inside Colliers' Q2 2026 under-construction total that sit in the subject's own trade area, and the quarter each one opens 14.
The Triangle questions this page's census, broker and tourism figures answer.
Raleigh-Cary, Durham-Chapel Hill or the combined statistical area: which count fits a Triangle site?
The one whose geography holds the subject's county. A Wake, Johnston or Franklin County site starts from Raleigh-Cary, 1,595,720 in 2025 2; a Chatham, Durham, Orange or Person County site from Durham-Chapel Hill, 625,485 on July 1, 2025 3. The Raleigh-Durham-Cary combined statistical area counted 2,484,238 people in 2025 1, a total that also takes in counties outside this page's seven. The two metro counts reach this page through different publishers, City Population and FRED, so the text names which one it uses.
Were Raleigh apartments still losing occupancy in 2026?
Yes, in Yardi Matrix's March reading: stabilized occupancy of 93.1%, down 70 basis points as Yardi reports it 13. The same report counts 2,157 units delivered from January to April 2026 and an April asking rent of $1,539 13. The 17,690 housing units calculated from FRED's monthly Raleigh-Cary permit counts for 2025 5 include houses, so they are not an apartment pipeline.
How did Wake County hotels do in 2025?
Wake hotels ran 67.7% occupancy at a $137.55 average daily rate in 2025 11, and RevPAR for January to September 2025 was $93.10 12. Event sales during 2025 secured more than 263,000 room nights for future events 10. Each of these is a Wake County figure, published by the county's tourism office.
Can a Johnston County project count on the Benson magnet plant?
Not on the announcement alone. Expansion Solutions Magazine reported Vulcan Elements' rare-earth magnet plant in Benson, Johnston County, with $918.1 million of announced investment, and the report states no construction status 7. On this page the plant is an announcement with a dollar figure and a job count, and no construction date.
Where does the Triangle record place office and hotel demand?
In four named places, from two sources. TenantBase names downtown Durham, North Hills in Raleigh and Hub RTP as the areas where tenant activity gathered in Q1 2026 15, and the Wake County tourism report, as ABC11 relays it, notes hotel traffic and restaurant growth at Brier Creek 10.
What did the SBA's Chantal declaration cover, and are its deadlines still open?
The SBA declared an administrative disaster on July 25, 2025 after Tropical Depression Chantal, naming Durham and Orange as the primary counties 16. Physical damage applications closed on September 23, 2025 and economic injury applications on April 27, 2026 16. Both deadlines have passed.
Is Triangle retail space still being built?
Yes. In Q2 2026 Colliers had 537,600 sq ft of Raleigh-Durham retail under construction, with asking rent at $24.80 per sq ft NNN 14. Both are Colliers' figures for its Raleigh-Durham market as a whole.
This page carries a hotel year for Wake County alone. A study elsewhere in the Triangle builds its own.
A hotel in Wake starts from Visit Raleigh's 2025 figures and one in any of the other six counties from its own competitive set; an apartment project from Yardi Matrix's Raleigh readings; a retail center from Colliers' Q2 2026 quarter. Each comes with its date, and the program and the loan request decide which of them the study leans on.
Request a methodology briefingData sources and dates.
Wake County's tourism office, BLS, FRED, the Census Bureau, a data vendor, Yardi Matrix, and a broker, Colliers, supply most of this page; the SBA files and County Business Patterns are read for the seven counties through the register.
- City Population (Census data), Raleigh - Durham - Cary (CSA; Census data), page undated; accessed October 2026 (2020 census and 2025 estimate).
- City Population (Census data), Raleigh - Cary (MSA; Census data), page undated; accessed October 2026 (2020 to 2025).
- FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Census Bureau data), RADPOP, accessed October 2026 (July 1, 2024 and July 1, 2025 estimates).
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Economics Daily, year ended June 2026, 2026 (June 2025 and June 2026 data).
- FRED (Census Building Permits Survey), RALE537BPPRIV, updated September 24, 2026 (calendar 2025 monthly data).
- FRED (Census Building Permits Survey), DURH537BPPRIV, accessed October 2026 (calendar 2025 monthly data).
- Expansion Solutions Magazine, Record Growth Across the Innovation Corridor, 2026 (announcement reported in 2026).
- Carolina Journal, NC Commerce cancels six JDIG projects, February 25, 2026 (termination of February 24, 2026).
- CBS17, Wake and Durham county visitor numbers and spending hit records in 2025, page undated; accessed October 2026 (calendar 2025 data).
- ABC11, Wake County tourism report highlights growth amid slowing travel demand, page undated; accessed October 2026 (bookings made in 2025).
- Visit Raleigh, Wake County 2025 Tourism Industry Report, February 19, 2026 (calendar 2025 data).
- Visit Raleigh, Wake County Q3 2025 tourism industry report, November 19, 2025 (January to September 2025 data).
- Yardi Matrix, Raleigh Multifamily Market Report, June 2026, June 2026 (March and April 2026 data).
- Colliers, Raleigh-Durham Retail Market Report Q2 2026, Q2 2026.
- TenantBase, Raleigh-Durham Commercial Real Estate Market Report, Q1 2026, Q1 2026.
- Federal Register (U.S. SBA), Administrative Declaration of a Disaster for the State of North Carolina, July 30, 2025 (declared July 25, 2025).
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income by County, Metro, and Other Areas (Regional table CAINC1), calendar year 2024; retrieved October 16, 2026.
- U.S. Census Bureau, 2023 County Business Patterns (Census Data API), 2023 (employment for the pay period including March 12, 2023); retrieved October 16, 2026.
- U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, Detailed Tables (Census Data API), 2020 to 2024 five-year estimates; retrieved October 16, 2026.
- U.S. Small Business Administration, Office of Capital Access, 7(a) and 504 FOIA loan-level data, loan status as of June 30, 2026 (approval fiscal years 2016 to 2025); retrieved October 16, 2026.
- eCFR, 13 CFR 120.160, Loan conditions, current to October 7, 2026.
- U.S. Small Business Administration, SOP 50 10 8.1, Lender and Development Company Loan Programs, with Technical Policy Updates, effective October 1, 2026.